UPDATED FORECAST END SEP/EARLY OCT

 Another early season storm exiting the region this morning with strong northwest winds blowing behind the front - which will increase today and tomorrow.  Large wind swell has already responded north of Pt Arena - 10-11 ft at 9 seconds and will increase to 15 ft @10 seconds Sunday.  Winds will remain pretty gusty through Wednesday, perhaps turning a bit north to northeast through the period as another system dives into the Great Basin and creates off shore flow.  Couple more storms developing out in the Pacific with a strong jet coming off Japan creating a good environment next week for swell production.   Fall is here - but for this week looks like just periods of larger wind swell.  Waiting on this next series of storms to perhaps produce something better.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-22

Still some left over northwest swell from this week's large-ish northwest event.   Buoys around 6@11 this morning with light south winds.  Swell will stay small throughout the weekend with background south swell until the next swell train moves in Monday into next week - with the potential for very large surf again by next Tuesday.   An early season storm, with a possible low end atmospheric river will begin to impact the far North Coast Sunday and spread south through Tuesday.   Heavy rain will impact areas north of Mendocino, but rain will happen all the way down to SF and maybe further south.   South winds will crank up Sunday and Monday.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-17, FIRST REAL NW SWELL THIS COMING WEEK

 Some south swell left overs today 2ft @15 from around 200.   This will be the last day of south swell and then focus turns to incoming northwest swell train for Tuesday-Thursday.   A decent size low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska has been creating a good fetch of winds.   Swell will build overnight Monday at 8ft @16 seconds, solid on Tuesday at 8-10 ft @16 seconds as well as Wednesday 9-11ft@14 seconds.  Size holding Thursday before fading out Friday into next weekend.   Winds won't be ideal for this swell - northwest winds forecast Monday night through Thursday, veering more northerly Wed/Thurs.   Nearshore winds might not be as strong or have more of an offshore component given they will be a result of an Inside Slider type system diving into the Great Basin.   It is close to meteorological Fall - and the time of year for wind events like this.   The Pacific Jetstream is active and energetic - and we also have some chances of rain mid week next, as well as the possibility of a stronger rain even for next weekend.  So here we go!  Cya in the water! 

UPDATED FORECAST 9-11

 Jova swell fading out today.  Didn't develop as forecast for spots north of Pt Conception - likely due to the angle of approach, shorter periods and the movement of Jova quickly to the northwest.   Attention now to the South Pacific again as a new long period swell will run in mid week and beyond.  Look for forerunners  to start in So Cal Tuesday 1-2ft @19 seconds from 200, Santa Cruz Tuesday night and spots SF north, overnight Tuesday.   Period will drop and size will be more noticeable Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for spots north of Santa Cruz.   Peak deep water swell heights for the Wed-Fri period should be 2-3 ft @15-17 sec from 200.  Good for chest high & larger sets at south facing spots.   Northwest winds forecast most of the week, especially SF north - gradual decline in winds by Friday.   South facing spots will be cleaner with the northwest wind.   Nothing serious on the charts for the North Pacific yet, still waiting for the season to really start up north.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATE ON JOVA SWELL, SW FOR NEXT WEEK

 Swell from Hurricane Jova entered the So Cal waters overnight and pushing up this morning.   It's starting to show as far north as Big Sur,  deepwater swell around 3ft@14 seconds from 170.   North of Santa Cruz, SF and beyond, it's still the remnants of our old southwest swell at 2-3ft @14 from 185.  Winds mostly light, fog in along most of the Coast.  Jova swell will build all day - peaking overnight Santa Cruz/SF and then pushing up far north for Sunday/Monday.   Swell might be a bit smaller than forecast since the hurricane was moving quite quickly (even though the winds were very strong) - you typically want to see a hurricane like Jova move very slowly to the northwest in the CA swell window to maximize surf heights.  Either way - still should be some fun tropical swell around the next few days.  Spots with a good view to the south might feature some larger sets at times, tropical swells can be very unpredictable.  Next up - starting mid week - another good run of southwest swell on tap.  More on that when we start the week.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-7, Hurricane Jova, More South Swell mid Sept.....

 Brief pause after a very strong south swell graced our shores from last Friday through last night.   Still some energy in the water at 2.5 to 2.7 ft @15/17 seconds from 175, but will fade through the day.   Watching the movement of Hurricane Jova now, moving west/northwest underneath and away from Baja.  Storm has moved into the So Cal window and should continue into our window for the next day.    We could start to see swell from Jova as earlier as Saturday.   Right now models are showing the potential for steep angle south 2-4 ft @16 sec late Saturday, pushing up to 4-6 ft@12-14 sec on Sunday.   This will likely be 170 deg or steeper.  Everything depends on the track right now.   Good bet most of the CA Coast will see action and spots with good exposure to the south will obviously pick up the most swell.   One to watch for sure.  Northwest winds will ramp up again over the outer waters for the next 4-5 days, hard to say right now how much mixes into the inner waters, given the fog and ongoing light southerly flow.   Beyond all this - the South Pacific is now very active and looking at the potential for some strong south swells Mid September and beyond while we wait for the North Pacific to really wake up.   El Niño is most certainly having an impact on the S Pac now and the Tropics, we will see what that means for our winter surf.   Cya in the water.  

SOLID

First pulse of strong south swell peaking at 3-4 ft @18-20 seconds - swell is over performing based on what was modeled a few days ago.  We also have our first legitimate northwest swell of the season - showing at the far northern buoys - 6-7 ft @17 seconds.  Winds are light - go surf.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1

Welcome to the 2023/2024 Fall/Winter Surf Season.   Made it through another summer.   Strong run of south swell just starting to hit most of the CA buoys this morning, although not so much yet above SF.   Long period fore runners 3-4 ft @18-20 seconds from 180-200.   North wind swell above Bodega Bay - 5-6ft @9 seconds.  The long period northwest swell that was on the models a few days ago didn't materialize for today.    Northwest winds over the outer waters should start to ease up today and remain south through Sunday - on the lighter side.  Winds look to pick up again Monday as low pressure exits the region and high pressure briefly builds back in.  Rain, showers in the forecast from Sonoma County north - heaviest far Nor Cal.   Enjoy the next week of south swell.   Cya in the water.