BACK TO BACK TO BACK LONG PERIOD SWELLS

First in a series of large west swells hitting the outer buoys at 15ft @14 seconds.  Swell will fill in all afternoon and overnight and be quite solid in the am.  Next swell will quickly follow on New Years Day, 11-13ft @ 21 seconds - very solid with a reinforcing shot New Years Night at 14-15ft @19 seconds.  Swell will stay solid through Friday, fading some Friday into the 8-10 ft range.  Wind forecasts are still predicting strong north to northwest winds, but feel the majority of the wind will be in our outer waters.   Near shore could see lighter winds each morning this week.  Keep an eye on it.  Plenty to ride, not much rain this week as high pressure holds on.   Most rain should stay north of Cape Mendo.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, CHRISTMAS EVE

Small northwest left overs today, surf running around 8ft at 12 seconds from 310.   Winds are light northwest and will switch to southwest this pm as a new front comes ashore bringing rain.   New swell will arrive tomorrow and be quite solid from the get go - 8-10ft @19 seconds.  Pulsing up further on Thursday at 12-14ft @17 seconds.  Size will then drop Friday, 6-8ft.  Tomorrow should be pretty epic at certain breaks that like northeast winds and large swells.  Classic December day.  North winds forecast Thursday and Friday.   Light west winds next Saturday.  Chances of rain here and there through the week.  Happy Holidays to all.   Cya in the water.  

LARGE AND STAYING LARGE

Our current west/northwest swell is maxing today at 14-15ft @15-18seconds from 290.  It will stay large into tomorrow and Sunday before a gradual fade Monday and Tuesday.  Storm track is just to the north of Sonoma County which will bring bouts of rain through Saturday along with south to southeast winds.  Winds may change to the northwest on Sunday and then blow from the east Monday and southeast for next Tuesday.   In short, winter in Nor Cal - plenty of surf, some tricky winds but plenty of spots rideable if you know your locations.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST

Stormy pattern about start up again Friday and last through Sunday.   Winds are clean this morning as they have been the past couple of mornings with east to southeast flow.  Mid period WNW swell peaking today at around 6ft 13sec from 310.   New, larger long period swell will start to build into Friday and peak overnight at 10-12 ft @17 seconds.  This swell will have a more westerly direction.   Plenty of size around Saturday as period drops to 13 seconds.  Swell slowly fades Sunday into Monday.   Winds will remain southeast to south through Saturday.  Changing to southwest Saturday night and light northwest for Sunday.   More rain forecast for perhaps Tuesday of next week.  Go surf and cya in the water.

HERE WE GO - XXL SURF THIS WEEK

First major winter storm of the year is approaching OR/CA this afternoon.  This weather system is essentially going to "bomb" off the North Coast late tomorrow, with perhaps all time low mb pressure for the date of 978mb set back in 2010.  Forecast calling for 975mb.  Given the winds, close proximity of the storm center - look for giant surf late Tuesday into Wednesday night - wave heights approaching 30-35 ft Mendocino County north.  Deepwater will be 23-25ft at 17 seconds - quite impressive.  Swell will stay on the XL side until Thanksgiving, then things will fall back to more mortal heights 9-11 ft on Turkey Day, 6-8 ft on Friday.  Lots of crazy wind coming, from all directions.   Badly needed rainfall will be a welcome sight and should be heavy at times.  Might be some spots to surf but don't look for anything very clean until later this week.  Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water!

NEXT SWELL IN THE CUE

Cape Mendo Buoy showing early signs of our next swell.  5ft plus at 20 seconds.  Swell will filter down the Coast all day while filling in and be solid by Saturday morning.  Saturday and Sunday will feature deep water swell in the 9-12 ft range at 17-19 seconds.  Winds look decent the next few days. East winds this morning.  Light northwest tomorrow and into Sunday, stronger over the outer waters. Look for a run of swell to come well into next week as the N Pac is getting very active.   We should see our first real soaking rain of the Fall beginning about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  Cya in the water.

UPDATE ON INBOUND SWELL

Long period forerunners will start late Thursday into Thursday evening.   Probably 8ft @19 to start.  Swell direction will be 296-300 - partially shadowed in the Bay Area.  Swell will peak Friday at 8-12 ft @17 seconds.  Gradual fade into the weekend but decent size still on Saturday.  Winds look fairly light Thursday and Friday, perhaps an increase in north to northwest winds for Saturday and Sunday - but AM sessions and near shore areas might still be decent.   Cya in the water.

MID PERIOD SWELLS, LARGE SWELL END OF NEXT WEEK

Today through Thursday - back to back mid period west/northwest swells - 3-6ft - 13-15 seconds should be the rule with winds remaining fairly light for the morning sessions.  Might see stronger winds in the afternoons.  A very large area of low pressure is currently filling the North Pacific from a spot northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.  This will be our swell maker for Friday and next weekend with very large surf possible.   Right now could see long period forerunners on Thursday, then the swell fills in more on Friday.   I  will dial it in a bit further as we get into the week but certainly going to see double to triple overhead waves at the top winter breaks from the Bay Area north.   Stay tuned, cya in the water.

SMALL AND CLEAN

Small west/northwest swell for the week ahead.  Clean skies, light winds and no rain in sight.  That means no storm production for swell either until the jetstream starts to track west.   Things might change mid month.  Until then enjoy this fall weather.   Cya in the water.

FINE TUNING INCOMING SWELL....

Swell started hitting the Papa Buoy about 630 last night - Papa is 600 miles northwest of Eureka.  Deep water swell 12-16 ft at 14-15 seconds.  Solid, perhaps a touch smaller than models predicted.  Given timing, won't see any of this swell today - perhaps early forerunners before sunset.   Swell will fill in overnight and then be solid on Thursday and Friday.  Light winds today, stronger northwest tomorrow and then turning light again into the weekend.  Cya in the water.

HERE WE GO....

New swell filled in overnight - running around 8-9ft at 11-12 seconds from 310 plus.  This is the warm up act to a much larger swell due in Wednesday.  This next swell will be the biggest of the Fall so far - with surf heights pushing 17-20 ft Wednesday into Thursday.  Smaller Bay Area, larger north of Bodega Bay.   Winds look fairly light the next few days - then will ramp up Thursday into Friday.  Unsettled conditions will arrive Wednesday as well - with rain likely north of Sonoma Country through the end of the week.  So it's going to look and feel more like Fall from mid week on.  Cya in the water.

SMALL SURF.....

Fairly nice conditions but not much swell for the next few days.  Pretty much just wind swell from the Gulf through the middle of next week.   Models are hinting at a more active pattern starting around the 15th, but until then - slim pickens.  Could be some nice beach break days with the small surf.  Cya in the water.

AUTUMN TOMORROW

Autumn Equinox tomorrow.  Fall officially arrives.  Swell this week from a few sources.  New Zealand southern hemisphere most of the week.  Size will be between 1.5 and 2 ft - periods 15-17 seconds.  Most lost under the more dominant north swell and local wind swell.  Look for wind swell Monday from 8-10ft at 11 seconds.  Period and size to increase Tuesday at 9-12 ft at 12 seconds and a larger shot by Wednesday, 13-15 ft.   Most if not all of this energy will be due to ferocious north to northwest winds over the outer waters and well to our north - with winds 20-30kt and 40kt gusts.   Fire danger will elevate mostly in Mendo and Sonoma counties.  Further north, less extremes due to wetting early season rains.  Will get hot again at least until late week, then another low pressure system will drop down from the north cooling things off and increasing our chances of rain again.  Plenty of swell on tap, plenty of wind too.  Cya in the water.

SMALL SWELLS UPCOMING WEEK, CHANCE OF RAIN

Early season storm is dropping south out of BC this morning and will bring rain to most of Northwestern CA through tomorrow.  Rain may not make it all the way to the Bay Area, but points from Marin north should see some beneficial early season moisture.  Swell should stay small to mid size this week with mid period northwest swells the predominant source of energy.  Winds may be problematic shifting between south/southwest and northwest before and prior to front passage.   By mid week, rain chance will end and we will dry out.  No large swells on the horizon yet, but the storm track is getting busy and low pressure systems are moving through.   Check the winds, should be some swell around - cya in the water.

RUN OF SMALL SWELLS THIS WEEK.....

Couple of swells in the water this AM.  Swell from former Hurricane Jeanette is 3ft at 11 sec.   Forerunners of a couple New Zealand swells are showing - 2-3 at 18-20 seconds.  Small wind swell 3 at 9 sec.  The NZ swells will fill in today and tomorrow and hang around a good part of the coming week - joined by another NZ swell mid week to reinforce.  Should also see a shot of northwest wind swell around mid week - 5ft at 9-10 seconds.  The NZ swells are all approaching from around 210 degrees plus.  North swell will be from 310.   Northwest winds look likely for most of the upcoming week - but early morning sessions might have some moments at the right spots.   Basically small scale surf all week, but something to ride.   Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER

Welcome to the 2019/2020 season.  Made it through another summer.   Couple swells in the water this AM.   Small southwest swell with periods 15-17 secs, around 2-3 ft.  There is also a small west/northwest swell from 300 degrees in the water - about 2ft.  Small wind swell at 2-3ft.   SW is certainly the dominant swell in the area.   Looking ahead to mid week, have our first northwest swell of September on the horizon for mid week.  Forerunners Tuesday night at 2ft at 20 seconds.   Filling in Wednesday at 3-5ft at 19 seconds.  Period should start to drop Thursday into Friday and fade out.   Good sign however that the N Pac is already starting to wake up and come online.  Winds are light this am with fog along the coast.  May see an up tick in northwest winds over the next couple afternoons.   But strongest over the outer waters.   cya in the water.

N PAC STIRS.....

Signs of life have begun in the North Pacific.  Low pressure system is dropping south today in the Gulf and will push onshore mid week - BC and Pac Northwest.  Chance of rain very far north - Del Norte/Humboldt as well.   Enough wind is blowing over the ocean to generate some mid period northwest swell - which should roll in late Wednesday (far Nor Cal) and fill in everywhere during Thursday.   Nothing epic mind you, but given the past couple weeks anything will work.  Probably looking at swell 5-6 ft at 13 seconds on Wednesday and 6-7 at 12 seconds Thursday.  Swell dir 290-295.  Late season New Zealand south swell to fill in Thursday and Friday - probably along the lines of 2-3 ft 18-20 seconds.  Northwest winds are going to ramp up again today through end of week.  Strongest over the outer waters and far north.  The South Pacific is definitely showing signs of slowing down for the season, as Down Under moves into spring and we transition to fall.   All eyes for us then turn to the N Pac as September approaches.  Cya in the water.

AUGUST!

One month to go until September 1, which is usually the start of the better waves season around these parts.   We do have some tropical swell mixing in today at 2ft @11-12 seconds - from Hurricane Flossie and some longer period background southern hemisphere swell later in the day.  Windswell still in the water too - short period stuff.  Winds are not ideal - mix of southwest to northwest depending on location - some lighter south winds as well.  Look for the northwest wind flow to pick up as the day goes.  Should be a few places to ride.   Hang in there - relief will be along soon.  Cya in the water.  

DOG DAYS.....

Northwest winds, short period windswell.  Late July.   That's what we've got.   Could see an uptick in the windswell mid week - small background south in the water as well but it's going to get ripped to shreds coming around Pt Conception between the wind and north flow moving south.   Good week to get some work done.   Hang in, September isn't too far off.....cya in the water.

NEXT NZ SWELL IN THE CUE, SMALL NW

Current NZ southwest swell fading today, but still decent at 3ft 15-16 sec from 190.  Look for the last in the series starting late Saturday into Sunday/Monday - initially long periods in the 22 sec band late Saturday, then 2-3 ft at 20-21 sec on Sunday.  Size/period fades Monday.  We also have a mid period, off season northwest swell/wind swell running in today and tomorrow - should peak at 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds.   This is from a Gulf Low that has been circulating in the North East Pac for the past week and has finally faded to be replaced by high pressure.  North winds will increase today and into most of next week as the summertime thermal low sets up shop again over the California Central Valley and the gradient pressure difference between the two drives the wind.  Cya in the water.

NEXT NZ SWELL INBOUND, HURRICANE SWELL FADES

Swell from Hurricane Barbara topping out today - 2-3 ft at 12-13 seconds from 180.   Secondary NZ swell is in the water as well - 3ft at 15-16 seconds from 200-210.  Bigger NZ swell is en route for late tomorrow and will come in 2ft at 20-21 seconds from 210.    This swell will peak Monday and Tuesday with size about the same - 2-3ft at 18-19 seconds.  Not much relief in the northwest winds, especially north of Jenner until the start of next week as high pressure moves more over CA and reduces the pressure gradient.   Until then, pretty strong northwest winds expected, perhaps a touch lighter near the Bay Area.   Plenty to ride for sure, just need to find some shelter from the winds. Cya in the water.

TRACKING NEW ZEALAND SWELL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

Good size storm system near New Zealand last week has created a swell that is moving north and should arrive around our area early next week.  Long period forerunners on Monday - 1-2ft at 20-21 sec from 214.  Decent bit of west in this swell given it's origins.  Swell will build further on Tuesday to 2-2.5ft at 18-19 sec.   Being a slow fade into next Thursday beyond that.   Not much relief in winds for the week ahead - will remain steady from the northwest as is typical for this time of year.  Only upside will be ongoing wind swell to give us something to ride.   Water temps not that bad 53-55 north to south, although pockets of 49 deg water exist near shore once you get north of Jenner.  That's about all we have for the moment - after this NZ swell it's going quiet again Down Under.   Tropical storm Alvin in the East Pac is first named storm of the season but not a swell producer for us.   Cya in the water.  

JUNE!

Fog at the coast, warm inland.  June.  Look for more fog than usual (if that's even possible in Nor Cal) this summer due in part to the very cold ocean temps.   Ideal for fog creation as northwest winds blow over the open ocean.   Today, winds have reversed to a south to southeast flow.   Swell is a mix - fading south, windswell and later incoming Central Pacific South swell.   Fading swell is around 1.5 to 1.9 at 14 seconds, windswell 4-6 at 9-10 seconds.   The Central Pac swell should come in later around 2ft at 17.  This swell will be our primary swell for the next few days, sticking around through Thursday as a reinforcing shot comes through Tuesday.  Swell direction will be focused about 190-197 degrees.   Winds look to stay strong northwest over the outer waters through the extended period, but near shore with the fog and local eddy's could see lighter winds from the south.   Highly variable so check the wind links on this page before you venture out.   Water temps are cold - 48 north of Bodega,  around 53 SF.   Cya in the water.  

LARGE WEST SWELL INBOUND....UNSETTLED LATE MAY CONDITIONS....

If you've been keeping track, we've actually had measurable rain now in CA for almost seven months.  Pretty crazy.   Large surf and a lot of wind is on tap for the rest of the week as swell trains roll in from  low pressure anchored in the Gulf of AK, rotating spokes of energy at CA every few days.   Look for deepwater swell Wednesday 15-16ft at 12 seconds, gradually fading through the weekend but hovering around 8-10ft with howling northwest winds through the period.  That will tumble water temps again!   In short, plenty to ride if you know where to look and can get out of the wind.  Cya in the water.

STRONG SW SWELL PEAKING TODAY.....

Deepwater swell is 3.5 at 15 from 195 - quite solid this AM.   Current swell is peaking today and will have a gradual fade into the back half of the week.   Meanwhile, a new northwest swell and another round of southwest swells will move in.   The northwest will come in for Wed/Thurs and the long period forerunners of our next southwest swell will start to show late week, into Saturday, then getting pretty solid for Sunday/Monday.   Good run of waves for sure and the southwest swell should stick around until mid month.  Winds look light today, variable depending on location from southwest winds to north winds.  Stronger north winds tomorrow as high pressure builds in, but then fading wind speeds into the weekend.   The wind pattern is very hard to nail down at present due in part to the deep marine layer and various disturbances passing to our north and east.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - COUPLE SOUTH SWELLS

Southern Hemi swells hitting this week.  Today you'll find deep water swell around 2ft at 14-15 secs from 190.   Stronger south swell is forecast for this coming weekend - building Sunday at 2ft @18 sec, peaking Monday/Tuesday with deep water swell 3ft at 14-15 seconds.   Swell direction around 187deg.   Winds are a bit lighter than they've been, but will remain from the northwest given the time of year.   Something to ride at least at the south facing spots.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - LATE APRIL & BEYOND....

Spring time northwest winds for the foreseeable future.   Very cold water temps with all the upwelling.   Upper 40s north of Jenner.  Mid period northwest swell will continue through the week staying between 5-8ft with periods 11-13 seconds.   Bigger the further north you go.   High pressure is assuming it's place in the northeast Pacific, typical of the season.   I'll keep an eye on the southern hemisphere and update as those swells start working north.   Same goes for anything unusual from the north.   But expect reports to be a bit more infrequent until later in the summer.   Enjoy your Spring and Summer - let's all pray for a good south swell season.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - APRIL 6

Very large northwest swell was showing at outer buoys last night - 20plus feet at 17 sec at Papa Buoy.    Swell will roll in late day/tonight and peak tomorrow.   Look for deepwater 12-15ft Bay Area, 14-20ft further north.   Look for south to southwest winds through Monday night.   Strong northwest winds next Tuesday/Wednesday with fairly large surf continuing.   In short, it's Spring, but doesn't really look and feel like it other than those northwest winds creeping into the picture next week.   Unsettled pattern to continue through most of next week.   Waves around for sure if you know where to look!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 3-24/STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES.....

Solid West swell still showing today 10ft @ 15 seconds from 290.   Look for swell to slowly wind down into Monday but remain good size.  South to southeast winds are blowing light right now but will strengthen overnight as the next storm system takes aim at Nor Cal.   Look for rain and south winds Monday, surf remaining 8-10ft @14.   Southeast winds on Tuesday as swell drops to 7-8ft.   Next storm system rolls in Tuesday night with rain likely.   Rain showers Wednesday and southwest winds.   Light northwest winds showing for Thursday with swell 7-9ft.   Plenty of size, lots of wind from different directions but there will be places that are rideable.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 3-16

Light winds will continue until Tuesday, especially for morning sessions along the Coast.  Look for mid period west/northwest swell to stay around 5-7 ft - 12-14 seconds through the period.  High pressure will break down Tuesday giving way to a series of storms that will move through the region through next weekend.   Nothing that strong, light rain, but winds will ramp up from the south/southeast Tuesday and then then shift back to the northwest on Wednesday.   All in all, not a bad run of conditions for Mid March.   Cya in the water.

MARCH

March 1 - the end of the "good" wave season.   However, pretty clean today with northeast winds and long period swell 5-8ft at 17 seconds from 305.   Winds should be good through tomorrow morning and then shift southeast as the next storm comes ashore later tomorrow morning bringing rain to the Bay Area.   Swell will start to fade Saturday night and looks to remain on the smallish side through next Tuesday with periods of rain on and off through that time frame.   Winds will vary, light west to to northwest in between storms and ramp up from the southeast as fronts push ashore.  N Pac staying pretty active into March so one would expect better than average swell production from the region.   Stay tuned and cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 2-24

Another series of storms is taking aim on Northern and Central CA - with rain and wind forecast on and off for the next week.   Surprisingly, fairly small surf expected, even with all the storminess.   Part of the reason for this is that the systems are very warm and moist and lacking a really strong or defined low pressure system driving winds in the open ocean.  As a result, looking for west to northwest swell through Thursday at around 4-7 ft, with mid periods - 10-13 seconds.  Winds will be strong south tonight through Monday night - potentially turn northeast on Tuesday and then back to strong south to southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday.   Lighter northwest winds forecast Thursday.   So this type of set up might favor the beach breaks overall.   Keep an eye on it - check the winds.  Get what you can because Spring is lurking.  I've got a feeling we're going to be in for a very windy,  cold March-May once the pattern starts to shift and high pressure begins to establish itself in the N Pac.   Cya in the water.  

PAPA BUOY - 29FT AT 16SEC

Another giant swell hitting the outer buoys.  Unfortunately - just too much weather, wind and general storminess to contend with for a few more days.   Episodes of rain/showers off and on and no real decent conditions.  Might find a few places to ride if you have time to scout around - otherwise - might see some calmer conditions going into next week for a few days as high pressure tries to gain control.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.

BIG STORMY

A very strong low pressure system is just offshore Pt Arena this am, bringing winds, rain to CA.   Swell is around 12 ft @11 - with strong southeast winds.   Look for rain turning to showers all day long with strong winds.   Winds will turn southwest and then west through Monday with another swell rolling through at 8-10 at 14 seconds.   Much bigger west swell for middle of next week when deep water swell jumps to 12-15 ft on Tuesday.   Winds will northwest turning north by that time.  Very cold temps to come in Sunday into Monday as another system drops down out of BC.   Plenty of swell, just need to pick your spots.   Cya in the water.

HIGH PRESSURE - MID SIZE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS

High pressure in control until at least early February.   Next week or so will feature north/northeast/northwest winds at times, possibly clean AM sessions and series of west to northwest swells moving through our waters.   One of those is peaking today at 8-9ft at 14 seconds.  Afterwards, look for the swell to remain in the 5-7ft range with periods of 14-15 seconds through at least Monday.   Overall, nice break from all the rain and rogue conditions, enjoy it because when the Active Phase of the MJO heats up again in early February we'll probably see a run of stormy weather.  Cya in the water.

WHOA - CA BUOY - 33ft@17sec!

XXL large inbound swell train 350 miles out at CA Buoy.   Biggest reading this am was at 33ft!.   Swell will arrive later and continue through tomorrow.   Don't really see things cleaning up until maybe Sunday when winds turn more northwest and high pressure starts to build into the region giving us dry weather all of next week.   Until then - more rain today on and off (not as much wind) and then looks rainy off and on through the weekend.   Might be some knooks and crannies working if you know where to look.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - Plenty of swell and southeast winds

Happy New Year.   Stormy pattern setting back up for the foreseeable future.  We will have on and off rain events through at least the middle of next week and likely beyond.   Plenty of swell trains with mostly west swells through the period, biggest looks like Saturday and then again on Monday.   Winds are going to stay pretty consistent from the south/southeast/east depending on frontal passage - so some spots will remain clean, others not so much.   Plenty of options.   One note - Pt Arena buoy appears to have stopped transmitting overnight - not sure if this is temporary or it's come off its mooring.   Will monitor.   Cya in the water.