UPDATED FORECAST 1-25

The XXL swell from the past few days continues to wind down today but still offering up overhead to double overhead sets this morning at north facing breaks.  Meanwhile, a new, long period swell from the west northwest is already in the water and will move into our outer waters tonight and be in full force tomorrow.  Look for deepwater 12ft (bigger further north) and long periods initially, (20 sec) to start.  Swell will fade out through the week and then we should have mid size surf on tap for the upcoming weekend.  Winds look pretty decent the rest of the week as well.  Might see a slight turn to the south tonight as a very weak system to our north brushes the state with very light showers.  Nothing like we've seen over the past month.  Then winds should stay light for mornings in particular through the period.  Next "pattern" change for rain looks about mid week.   Cya in the water.

PAPA Buoy - 42ft at 17 seconds

All my years doing this blog and before - i can't remember seeing a buoy reading that big at our far offshore buoys.  42ft at 17sec.  That's deepwater swell.  Think about that for a few moments.  Think about that size wave at Mavericks - hitting the reef coming out of deep water.  How big the face?  80, 100ft?  125ft?  Swell will decay as it starts to hit the next buoys - but it's going to be pretty friggin large late tomorrow and Saturday throughout the region.  NOAA still saying 25ft deepwater or so - pretty damn big.  Unfortunately it will be a a complete turd fest with ongoing rain, southwest to west winds - howling rain.  Big, large unruly surf.  Will be fun to watch.

UPDATED FORECAST - MLK DAY

Winds are fairly light today as a new northwest swell has filled in overnight.  Deepwater is around 7-8ft at 15 sec from 295 plus.  This is the last dry day for the weekend ahead as another series of strong storms will come ashore with powerful south winds and very large swell by the weekend.  In fact NOAA forecasting surf heights 20ft plus and even larger the further north you go Friday through Sunday.  Plenty of swell in the water before that - just winds the issue - but there might some spots that light up if you know where to look this week.  Cya in the water.

UPDATE FORECAST - JAN 9TH

Major storm has exited the region with just some scattered showers around the area this morning.  Short lived break as another storm is due to arrive late tonight through tomorrow bringing more heavy rain and wind.  Right now looks like we have to wait until next weekend for a break and high pressure to return.  Additionally, morning winds look like they might be decent Friday and Saturday with swell dropping into the head high to a bit overhead at best winter breaks.  Until then, get some work done.  Swell is going to jump up mid week again but winds will probably thrash it.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - BEWARE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER

Wet, windy, small, very small surf - unusually so when we have this much storm activity out in the Pacific - but many of these systems are lacking a real core low pressure spinning for days off shore in a favorable location so we're left with smaller windswell.  That won't change much going into the weekend other than we will see an up swing in south to southwest storm windswell as the next series of systems come roaring ashore Saturday into Monday.  This atmospheric river event (which is the new name for "Pineapple Express," is going to point a fire hose of water at some point on the North to Central Coast of CA - still trying to pin point where and timing but wherever it lands over the weekend you can expect plenty of rainfall.  Should be a real shit fest for surf over the weekend - but with south winds and some swell there are spots that will work and you probably know which spots those are.  Cya in the water.