HALLOWEEN UPDATED FORECAST 10-31

Another storm system poised to come ashore later this morning bringing rain and south winds.  How much rain have we had this October already?  Santa Rosa is about seven inches above normal (normal is a bit over two inches) for the month - while Crescent City is almost 15 inches above normal for the month.  Low pressure remains anchored in the North/Northeast Pacific spiraling systems and swell trains towards the West Coast.  South winds today with northwest swell leftovers from 8-9 ft at 11 seconds.  Winds will shift to west overnight, with a bump up in northwest swell tomorrow to 9-13ft at 13 seconds.  Might be something to ride at the more sheltered spots.  Wednesday will feature light south winds, deepwater swell 6-8 at 14 seconds.  Thursday and Friday, lighter north to northwest winds and a XXL swell cranks up pushing deepwater heights back to 12-16ft range.  Looks like after today the frequency of the systems will slow down as high pressure tries to regain control, but chance of rain Wednesday, far north and then a better chance over the weekend.   Plenty to ride, have to look around and know your spots that will work with the variable winds all week long.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 10-24-16

I'll be out later this week and this will be the only post through next Sunday.  Very stormy pattern has set up for us and we will see bouts of rain on and off through next weekend and possibly beyond.  West to northwest swells will propagate across the Pacific through the period along with mostly south to southwest winds, some northwest winds behind fronts as they pass through.  Should be plenty of surf on tap, finding a spot clean to ride will be the main issue.  Might be a good week to get some work done.  I'll post an updated forecast next Monday.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, TWO NEW LINKS IN FORECAST SECTION

I've added two links in the Forecast Links section on the right of the page. NOAA Wavewatch III Model with NE Pacific animations and US West Coast.  These are good models to view incoming swell trains.  La Jolla Scrips server has been offline for over a week now - so I deleted NOR Cal Buoy link and Combined Pacific Buoy links from that site.  I'll keep checking back and if they come online will add them back to the page.

Swell wise - fading northwest swell from earlier this week remains in the water today - about 5ft @11 seconds.  New swell will start to show late tonight, north first and then be quite solid for Saturday.  Look for deepwater swell to jump to 10ft at 15 seconds for Saturday.  Swell direction 290-310.  Swell will hold into Sunday and then begins to fade for Monday.

Winds are blowing northwest right now strongly over the outer waters, lighter near shore.  Fog has returned to much of the Northern Coast of CA.  High pressure hanging over us until about Sunday when the weather pattern begins to shift to a wet one - with rain starting late Sunday night very far north and making it's way to Marin/SF Bay by late Monday or Tuesday.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 10-18

High pressure gradually building over the Pacific in the wake of our weekend storms which brought anywhere from 5 inches of rain North Bay and SC Mountains, to around an inch or more around the Bay Area.  North to northwest winds will be the rule the rest of the week, especially over the outer waters and far north.  Next significant swell looks to line up for next Friday into Sunday - deepwater swell heights to push 9-12ft on Saturday.  Until then - windswell and mid period northwest swell/or fading northwest swell the remainder of the week.  I'd check the winds each morning - near shore winds might be manageable for certain spots.  Next pattern change looks late Sunday into early next week with more rain forecast.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST - forgettabouitt

If you like your surf big and stormy, this weekend will be for you.  Northern Buoys are already 12-14ft with long periods plus 15 seconds and a larger swell is due for Sunday deepwater swell heights far north will be pushing 14-18ft.  Winds are south to southwest at around 22kts.  Storm #1 just going through the Bay Area now - should be a break later today and then a second system roars ashore for the weekend.  South to southwest winds through the period - don't see a shift to northwest winds until Monday when both systems have passed.  Go south if you want swell but no weather.  Cya in the water.

STORM DOOR OPENS MID WEEK AND BEYOND

First series of winter storms will begin to impact the Bay Area lateThursday and last through next weekend.  Heavy rain, winds and large storm surf will be the norm from late Thursday on.  Right now models hinting at a sustained and large swell train starting out 9-12ft deepwater Thursday night pushing to 15-17ft deepwater for Friday and Saturday.  Heights will drop to 12-15ft on Sunday.  South winds - very strong at times will be present through that period.  I'd say enjoy the relative calm before the proverbial storm over the next couple days with out small northwest swell in the water at 4-5ft at 13-15 seconds.  Fog is in, but winds are somewhat light depending on location until about Wednesday.  Should see some rather rogue and dangerous conditions late week.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST 10-7

N Pac swell is presently 3.5 @10 from a steep 320.  Nothing of interest from the S Pac.  Swell will continue to wind down through the weekend with lighter winds at least thru Sunday, especially for the mornings.  Not looking for any swell of significance just windswell 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds.   Things are suppose to get busier next week as the N Pac is quite active with storms at present and that activity should continue all the way through next weekend and bring rain to part of Nor Cal as well.  Will update late weekend.  cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST OCT 2

One system exiting the region tonight as another Pacific system following quickly behind will bring more rain to Nor Cal starting overnight far north, moving south through the Bay Area thru the day on Monday.  Winds will increase from the south all day , and switch to the northwest after front passage.   Swell will increase Wednesday and Thursday with deep water heights forecast to be 5-8ft (highest far north).  Winds look to stay elevated from the northwest most of the week, perhaps slowing down some towards next weekend.  Long range models are forecasting a large run of surf next week (starting around Oct 10th)  - still early days on that - but looks like we might see our first run of XL surf mid month.  Plenty of swell to ride until then, know your spots, check the winds.  Cya in the water.