UPDATED FORECAST 9-27

Southwest swell will be winding down through the day.  Another smaller run of south to southwest swell is due in Thursday through Saturday - this one should be good for shoulder to head high surf at best south facing breaks through the period.  Shorter period northwest swell and windswell will also be in the water Friday through the weekend.  Probably good for chest to head high at best north facing breaks.  Heat wave is over for now near the coast with onshore flow making a return later today with fog and coastal low clouds later.  Offshore winds will be gone too.  The rest of the week should feature northwest winds over the outer waters and far north - perhaps lighter conditions for morning sessions.  A storm system dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska will bring the first early season rain to far Northern California over the weekend, perhaps making it as far as Northern Sonoma County by Monday.  Bay Area should remain dry.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

SW swell is pulsing up tonight - 2ft at 20 from 190-200.  Swell will peak tomorrow.  We will also see an increase WNW swell fill in Saturday - for overhead waves at the best north exposures.  Good weekend for surf.  Winds should be light early Saturday, trend up later in the day.  Better winds possible for Sunday with warm temps and perhaps offshore flow making it all the way to coastal areas.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST

Fall Equinox is Thursday.  Current northwest swell is winding down today but still 6-8ft at 14 seconds depending on location.  Windswell also in the water and a small southwest swell. Winds are light to variable or south also depending on location.  A few storm systems show up on the Pacific loop.  One will drop through the northwest and far Nor Cal tomorrow - slight chance of rain very far north near the Oregon border.  Another, larger system just coming under the Gulf of AK should send us swell for this coming weekend.  More on that around Thursday.  Until then - northwest swell will fade, windswell will probably rise up as brisk north to northwest winds will come in behind the front on Wednesday shredding things a bit.  Also does look like we may have a nice size southwest swell for the weekend too.  Starting to show around Friday and maxing out over the weekend.  Keep an eye on the winds, plenty of swell in the water, finding the right spot will be key.  Cya in the water.

PAPA BUOY BACK - UPDATE FORECAST

Papa Buoy is back online - 600 nm west of Eureka.  We once again have a good window to incoming swell trains this winter with Papa, West Oregon and California buoys all operating.  Keep an eye on those tomorrow as our new northwest swell shows.  Winds aren't ideal this morning - bit of onshore and northwest, light right now but should pick up later today.  It's small today mix of south and north facing swells, trace of tropical swell.  New northwest swell will begin to fill in late Saturday - probably overnight and build through the day Sunday.  Models are forecasting deepwater of 7ft at 14 seconds - will see if that shows.  It will be bigger further north you go, except for good north facing beaches around the Bay Area.  Keep an eye on the winds - will be lightest early thru the weekend.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 9-14

Small northwest swell is showing today - 2-3ft at 13 seconds from 290.  This is from that system that was spinning in the Gulf over the weekend and as we started the week.  Small south in the water as well - deepwater running 2ft.  Look for the south swell to stick around through the week.  Current northwest swell will slowly fade out tomorrow with some left overs on Friday.  Attention turns to our weekend northwest swell when a longer period WNW 290-310 builds in Saturday (along with rising windswell).  This will be good for well overhead surf Saturday and Sunday points north, and good northwest facing spots around the Bay Area will get it on that action as well.  That swell will stick around until Monday.  Winds were pretty nice today as we had a bit of an offshore/southeast wind most of the day - sea breeze picked up late.  Winds look light Thursday as well, at least for the morning - then an uptick in northwest winds for Friday thru Sunday - at least over the outer waters.  As I've indicated, nearshore winds might not be bad - so check it each morning.  Finally there is some steep tropical/southeast swell from Orlene in the water which will only show at the most exposed south facing breaks tomorrow into Friday - but probably hard to notice with the more dominant south swell around.  Looking and feeling like Fall.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - HERE WE GO....

Sat photo to the right shows some decent activity starting up in the Nor Pac - as a storm has been crossing under the Aleutians for a couple days now and gaining traction over the open ocean.  Swell from this system will arrive Wednesday and Thursday this week.  Probably looking at 3-4 ft deepwater, 13-14 sec from about 294 both days.  Potentially bigger the further north you go.  Behind that - charts are showing more activity with a series of systems forming and delivering swell through the month of September - with a decent shot of surf forecast Sep 19-21.  More on that in the next week.  You will also notice south of Baja Tropical Storm Orlene - will keep an eye on this one as it might move into a more favorable swell window for us over the next 36 hours.  Finally, our current southwest swell, which provided fun waves all weekend is winding down into tomorrow, but there will still be some left overs around.  Winds this week are highly variable - going to blow northwest tomorrow shift south to southeast mid week, trend back to west/northwest late week.  Check it daily as AM winds might be ok for certain spots.  It is September and the heavy onshore flow we had all summer long should start to ease up - especially if systems starting dropping into the Great Basin on a regular basis to set up some offshore flow events. Plenty to ride the week ahead.  Check the winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 8

As forecast, southerly winds and fog have returned to the coast this morning.  Long period forerunners of our southwest swell are just showing - 1.7 to 2 ft at 20 sec from 200.  Look for swell to build all day (it's a bit later than forecast) holding into tomorrow and then fading on Saturday.   Windswell remains in the water from the northwest along with slightly better pulses of northwest swell.  I am starting to see some activity in the North Pacific - a couple weak low pressure systems are moving through the upper region around the high pressure system that has been anchored there most of the summer.  Could see a bump up in mid period northwest swell late in the weekend into Monday - from 300 + periods 10-11 seconds.  Probably good for chest to head high surf far north and good Bay Area spots that have a window to the northwest.  Beyond that, could see a better shot of northwest swell next weekend and the first longer period swell of the season.  Wind forecast is tricky through the weekend.  Fog and southerly flow look to hang around - but could see light winds for the AM sessions, more onshore flow for the afternoons.  Check the winds.  Between the windswell/northwest and southwest swells in the water - should be plenty of surf.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, SEPT 6TH

Not too much change in the thinking for the week ahead.  We have a couple of southwest swells in the water headed our way for around Wednesday, lasting thru Friday.  Looking for deepwater heights to be in the 2-3ft range with initial periods of 19 seconds, dropping to 18 sec through the day Thursday.  Northwest winds remain strong through tomorrow and then may start to fade some as high pressure moves into the Great Basin and the thermal low over CA moves towards the coast.  This should give us a southerly wind reversal by Thursday and lighter winds around the Bay Area and points north.  Some forecast/models calling for offshore winds, easterly flow for late week - think that might be overdone and overly optimistic - depends on the strength of the high pressure to our northeast and the location of the thermal low.  Water temps are cold now from all the wind - 50 at Bodega, bit warmer at SF Buoy with readings around 55.  No storms active in the North Pacific at the moment.  The Jetstream is pushing from the West Pacific up into Alaska down through BC with high pressure maintaining control for the moment in the entire East Pacific.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 3

Shredded is a good word to describe conditions - north to northwest winds howling from the far North Coast all the way past Big Sur.  Water temps are dropping fast, already 52 at Bodega.  This is all due to high pressure re asserting itself in the East Pacific with low pressure departing to our northeast and east.  Windswell is increasing in size, but not sure you will be able to find anything clean to ride.  There will be a pulse of swell in the water starting tomorrow from West Pacific Typhoon Lionrock, but not sure you will notice it under the dominant windswell.  Deepwater swell will be 2ft at 17 seconds from 295-298.  Fading out by Tuesday.  Beyond that - couple of pulses with New Zealand origins show up mid week and beyond.  Southwest swell starting 215 + degrees 2-2.5ft deepwater Wednesday 9-7, with a 2nd smaller pulse Thursday 9-8 and Friday 9-9 from about 198-200 degrees.  Really waiting on a Fall pattern to take shape and nothing on the books yet.  Thought we were done with all this northwest wind - but mother nature has other plans for now.  Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER 1!!

Welcome to meteorological fall (Sep-Nov) and the start of the good wave season for Northern and Central CA.  You made it thru another summer.  It's not looking that Fall like at present, but hang in there - things will be changing.  For the upcoming Labor Day weekend look for northwest windswell to continue along with small longer period swell from the southwest.  Winds don't look that ideal, northwest winds will blow most of the period over the outer offshore waters, but nearshore winds might be lighter, especially for the AM sessions.

While the West Pac and East Pac have been quite active with hurricanes of late - we have no inbound swell from any of those systems.  All the models point to things starting to pick up about two weeks into the month from both the north and south - with some decent swell possible from the southern hemi.  While we have transitioned out of El Nino to a La Nina state - it's a fairly weak La Nina, but don't look for the same type of size and consistency of waves we had last winter.  The energy out in the Pacific isn't the same.  Could see a fairly normal winter of weather and waves for Nor Cal - have to see how things unfold.  I'll be back on with regular reports now throughout the winter especially as things get busy and we start seeing some good swell events from the Nor Pac.  Cya in the water.