Updated Forecast, March Looms, Where is El Nino?

I think by now everyone knows the surf has pumped this week.  Just as one swell was fading out today another new, long period west/northwest swell is pumping up and will peak tomorrow.  Saturday look for deepwater swell 12-14 ft at 17 seconds.  Rain is falling north of Sonoma as a front is passing thru - but we won't get any of that precip.  Wind on Saturday looks light northwest 5-15kt - perhaps fairly light in the AM.  Sunday, swell winds down to 8-10ft at 15 seconds.  Still good for double overhead at the north facing breaks.  Similar wind forecast for Sunday.  Swell looks to stay elevated thru next Wednesday as more, smaller west swells roll thru - keeping things in the 8-12ft range deepwater.  March 1st is usually the official end of the winter surfing season - but i think this year things are going to keep churning out in the Pacific well into spring.  El Nino is fading - but it's not dead and there is still plenty of warm water out in the Pacific to fuel storm and swell.  Longer term models hint we may see a pattern change late next week into the middle of March.  March can be a fairly wet month in a normal year - so let's hope we get some good rain events.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Large and stormy today with the next Pacific weather system making shore with rain and wind to come later.  Swell is about 11-12ft at 14 seconds from 295+.  Large storm driven wind swell is hitting far northern waters.  Things will begin to calm down overnight with lighter north to northwest winds forecast until Sunday.  Swell is going to stay elevated this weekend - 10-12 ft deepwater forecast - but with the lighter winds - especially mornings there should be some windows to ride.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast 2/11

Much hyped Mavericks swell is starting to show at the buoys - 9 ft at 20 seconds.  Winds are offshore at OB - it's big, clean and there for the taking.  Swell will build all day into the evening - peak tomorrow at 12-14ft at 18 seconds (deepwater).  Winds are forecast to remain light but might be a touch of northwest in it as the day goes on tomorrow.  Winds pick up further from the northwest on Saturday - 15-25kt range, turning more north on Sunday.  Swell will remain very solid all weekend - deepwater heights 12 ft @15 sec on Saturday and 9-11ft on Sunday.  Plenty to ride the next few days. No rain in the forecast for the extended.  El Nino has left the building it appears.  Very odd.   Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Swell Upgrade for Thursday

XXL swell due in now on Thursday.  Hurricane force winds of 50-70kts from a large storm in the Gulf of Alaska are whipping up a large swell train with confirmed seas right now 40-45ft way out in the Pacific.   Really good winds are forecast for Thursday and Friday.  Thursday in fact could be pretty epic for the regions premier big wave breaks.  Size will gradually fade into the weekend but remain solid in the 6-10ft range both Saturday and Sunday.  One more bout of rain on Wednesday and then we stay dry into next week.  Long range forecast models forecast a return to a stronger El Nino infused wet weather pattern around mid month.  So get some now.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Feb 1

El Nino takes another break this week with only two weak weather systems due in Tuesday and then again Wednesday.  Winds are easing after the huge event yesterday which saw a wind gust at Pt Reyes of 74 mph late afternoon, as the low pressure system that dropped down the coast has moved off into the southwest.  Large wind swell is winding down but still about 16ft at 11 seconds from 310 this morning.  Winds don't really look to improve until Thursday when light offshore flow is forecast for the morning. The two incoming weather events will bring south to southwest to west winds Tuesday and Wednesday.  West swell will jump back up on Thursday - deepwater heights forecast 11-14ft.  Smaller Friday, 8-10 ft.  Cya in the water.