Solid Day - Next Swell Friday - Weather Changes Ahead

photo: sean shafer

Man, how good was today?  Ocean Beach was dishing up some large waves - up to double overhead - and if you could make it through the whitewater - damn fine.  Think the ASP boys would like to see this come November?  Swell winding down through tomorrow - but still plenty of size.  Deepwater still at 8-9 ft at 11-14 seconds.  Today was the last real warm day for a while - as we have a major pattern change taking shape with a series of storms that will bring much cooler weather over the weekend and then pretty decent shots of rain next week.  Next swell due in here Friday/Saturday - not nearly as big as today - but good for head to a bit overhead at north facing breaks.  Keep an eye on the winds.  Might get a halfway decent run at it Thursday before the pattern starts to break down and onshore push begins.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead - Another NW Pulse Mid Week

Swell is currently 6 ft at 11 seconds - winds are a mixed bag of sw/nw - but trying to trend offshore at the buoys.  Forecast calls for a hint of light to offshore winds Wed/Thurs mornings this week - we'll see if that comes to pass.  Next strong shot of northwest swell due in here late Tuesday - with double overhead sets likely very late in the day or after sundown.  Wednesday will feature solid DH waves at north facing breaks.  Plenty of size left on Thursday as this swell begins to taper off.  Swell event from 280-310 degrees.  Tracking another swell for late this week into next weekend - but also looking like we'll have another shot at rain next weekend as well.  Plenty of surf on tap all week.  Keep an eye on the weather/winds - there will be good windows for surf.  Cya in the water.

Some shots from our recent run of swells.....

Photo: Sean Shafer

photo: Sean Shafer

Roaming SF photographer and friend, Sean Shafer captured some great shots from our recent run of surf.  Love the different moods of Northern California.  Enjoy.

Photo: Sean Shafer

Photo: Sean Shafer

Photo: Sean Shafer

Autumn

First day of Autumn officially.  Northwest swell at 7.7 ft at 12 seconds - light winds (fog winds) at coast - blowing northwest at the outer buoys.  Reinforcing shots of northwest swell will keep waves head to overhead at north facing breaks through the weekend.  Mid period, not long period stuff like yesterday morning.  Complex weather pattern above - low pressure rotating around by Pt Conception will drag moisture and possible thunderstorms up from the southwest today.  By Sunday, a low pressure system dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska - will give the northern 2/3 of CA shots of rain or showers - probably a chance all the way down to the Golden Gate.  Winds look suspect all weekend - could vary between w/sw.  Check it early for best conditions.  Waves on tap if you know where to look.  Next northwest swell looks to show next Tues/Wed.  More on that Monday.  Cya in the water.

9.5 at 14 seconds

Solid northwest swell filled in overnight.  Double overhead plus at north facing breaks.  Fog sucks - keeping a light south flow going on the surface - might be some glassy spots about if you know where to look.  Look for this swell to stick around through the weekend  (today and Friday morning biggest) - reinforcing shot on Saturday - smaller Sunday - but still decent.  Onshore winds look the problem - increasing as we get to the weekend - so that's the only knock on what would otherwise be a nice run of waves.  cya in the water.

20 ft at 15 seconds.....

Papa Buoy - 600 miles offshore just starting to show our incoming northwest swell - a few hours in so far in the 17-20 ft range (deepwater).  Solid.  Size will degrade on the way in - but still thinking we'll see deepwater swell in the 8-12ft range on Thursday.  Long period forerunners late Wednesday (evening probably).  Fog is returning - today was sick at the beach - if you had a chance to get some.  Might have been the last good warm day at the coast as it looks like the fog/onshore winds will slowly return by Thursday - and increase over the weekend.  Models have backed off on the rain chances late next weekend - but still not completely - complex pattern out in the Pacific and things may still get wet.  By the weekend it should be much cooler at the coast.  Plenty of large swell on tap for Thursday  - into Friday.  Check the winds.  cya in the water.

Here We Go - rain next weekend?

Here comes Fall - busy week ahead.  First small pulse of north swell showing this AM at 4.3 ft at 10 seconds.  Winds are light/variable - but locally dense fog at the coast.  Second impulse of swell behind this one shows late tonight - probably topping out in the 5-6 ft at 12 sec/from 317 range through Tuesday.  Wednesday - the real action should start late - as long period northwest swell forerunners will show later in the day.  Could see solid overhead waves at sundown on Wednesday at north facing breaks - then double to triple overhead Thursday into Friday (deep water 8-14 ft from 285-315).  Lingering through Saturday with another smaller shot of swell (from the same storm) due in Saturday and Sunday.  This storm is still still coming together for Wed-Sun - but pretty confident right now with models forecasting our first strong swell of the early season.  Winds look lightest for mornings this week - perhaps a bit more onshore push as we move torwards the end of the week and into the weekend.  The entire storm complex will finally move towards the northwest coast by late next weekend - and right now we have a very slight chance of rain next Sunday into Monday.  More on that mid week.  Plenty of swell on tap - check your winds.  cya in the water.

Updated Forecast....

Winds are dropping - have been all morning.  High pressure is building in to our north and a bit to the east - hence the reduction in onshore winds and fog - especially around SF Bay.  Windswell is the primary source of surf - and should continue through tomorrow.  Winds may even be lighter tomorrow - so worth a check.  A brief warming trend is now forecast through at least Tuesday - with potential for nicer days at the Coast.  First possible strong northwest swell is now forecast for Sept 22-23 - (right around the Autumn Equinox) - more on that Monday when i have eyes on the wind field over the weekend - but it looks promising for some size (finally).
cya in the water.

Week Ahead -

Mix of small southwest and northwest swell/windswell on tap for most of the week.  Probably waist to shoulder high at south facing breaks - with an increase in size at north facing breaks during the 2nd half of the week (head, a bit overhead perhaps).  Winds look lightest for morning sessions.  Just a ho hum week really, waiting for Fall to kick into gear.  cya in the water.

Northwest Swell - Weekend Forecast

NW Gulf Swell at 6.2 at 12 from 300 - and small south at 1.7 at 14 from 180.  NW will peak today and fade out over the day tomorrow and Sunday.  Fog, winds continue to be an issue at the coast - south winds blowing nearshore - west to northwest offshore.  Forecasting an offshore flow late today and tonight - but this will not make it to the ocean to mix out the junk.  Look for lighter winds Saturday morning but probably still blowing south.  Same deal Sunday i imagine.  cya in the water.

Week Ahead - First Larger NW Pulse

Well, hope you feasted on that south swell.  Last remnants winding down this afternoon - but it was such a fun weekend.  I heard reports of spots working well that rarely do unless a strong south is in the water.  Winds were a bit funky at times, but there were also some really nice moments when everything came together.  We'll have a mix of longer period (small) northwest and southwest tomorrow and Wednesday.  Then look for a new northwest swell (295-310) to show on Thursday - and this will be OUR FIRST - larger NW of the early season - going head high at good exposures and overhead ++ at solid northwest facing breaks Friday/Saturday.  Look for light southwest to west winds most of the week due to the fog/onshore push - probably lightest for morning sessions - and like this past weekend, there will be moments.  Check the links on this site related to wind.  We need a strong offshore event to set up the pattern - and rid the coast of the fog - but for now - nothing forecast.  Plenty to surf however.  Cya in the water.

Macking South!

4ft at 20 sec from 200 - the whole coast was firing today as one of the bigger south swells in many years filled in. Period will drop into 18-19 sec range tomorrow and size may increase. Winds are still iffy - offshore to northwest inland and outer waters - still some low level sw winds nearshore. I think the sw/fog pattern may break down Friday and be clear at the coast. Winds may be light for am sessions. Plenty of swell until Sunday. Cya in the water.