UPDATED FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING WEEK

 Storm door is closing today and we look to stay dry for a while as high pressure sets up.  Long term models are saying no rain until at least 2nd wk of December - maybe longer.  The good news, many locations north of SF received about 300-400% of normal rainfall for the date in the past week.   Surf wise, a rare, off season, long period south is due to come in mid week - forerunners overnight tonight.  Look for the swell to peak in the 2-4 ft range at 19seconds from 187 degrees.   Swell will gradually fade into Friday.   Get what you can as things stay pretty quiet after that with the storm machine shut down in the N Pac as the inactive phase of the MJO (dry air) builds and holds.   Winds look really nice the rest of the week - light and variable.  Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-17 - BIG AND STORMY, FIRST AR OF THE SEASON

 Gonna be big, ugly, windy and messy for the coming week as the first atmospheric river event of the winter season comes ashore late Tuesday night lasting until next weekend.   Lots of rain forecast especially north of the Bay Area - but everyone is going to get in on the action.  Surf wise - just plain big with a mix of large SW swells (storm swell) and NW swells through the week.  I    dunno, maybe get some work done, start your holiday shopping - sure there will be some spots that can harness the energy - but it won't be pretty for the most part.  Cya in the water. 

GOING LARGE AND STORMY, UPDATED FORECAST 11-10

 Storm door to open this week with multiple fronts coming through starting tonight and lasting through next weekend.  As a result of all this activity, multiple, large swell trains will be moving in.   First XL swell builds in overnight on Monday - hitting 15ft@16 seconds for Tuesday.  After that it will be hard to distinguish each swell event - just safe to say that it won't go below 14-15ft from Tuesday through Thursday night!   Swell direction for most of the week will be 292 to 307 degrees.  Swell will be biggest from SF north.    Winds will be variable - as fronts come onshore, south wind and as they pass by, northwest flow behind.   On and off rain through Thursday.   Going to look and feel much more like fall for the coming week!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-1 - LARGE OUT THERE

 Yesterday morning the PAPA Buoy peaked with a reading of 20ft@17 seconds - biggest so far in this early season of north swells.  This morning, Pt Arena showing 19ft@16 seconds.   A very large, N Pacific Low has occupied the Northeastern Pacific for a few days now and will continue to send large waves to the West Coast.   Very low pressure combined with strong winds - all of it moving in our direction creates a very dynamic wave scape in the ocean.  Ongoing rain and mountain snow for most of N Cal through at least Saturday, then the skies clear, winds turn more offshore and we dry out.   Winds will really start to nuke on Sunday and then we will also have a very large steep angled north wind swell in the water too.   So if you like big, next few days for you.   Otherwise, find spots that are sheltered from all this massive energy and you'll probably score.  Cya in the water.