Impressive winter storm over the past few days dropped snow to the coast north of Pt Arena, folks skiing on Mt Tam and everywhere record snowfall totals for places not accustomed to seeing any snow at all. The pattern that has set up out in the Pacific is conducive to a lot more weather into the first week of March and probably beyond - but will it also generate surf? For the most part yes, but with steeper angled northwest swells due in part to low pressure being anchored further up in the NE Pacific. We still have some residual swell from this past event at 8-10ft this am - with light winds nearshore. Winds will pick up later today. Winds do look highly variable the next 5-7 days with rain, passing fronts, strong south winds in advance at times and strong nw winds behind. Swell looks to crank back up Monday 12-15 ft (larger north of Bodega) and Tuesday, fading some into Wednesday but still solid. La Niña is gone and we are headed to El Niño late year. My sense reading the tea leaves, very wet spring to come with a lot of wind and a very warm summer ahead. Cya in the water.
Saturday, February 25, 2023
Thursday, February 16, 2023
UPDATED FORECAST FEB 16TH
South winds blowing on most of the Coast today as a storm system is circulating just off the West Coast due to move south and inland starting Friday. Minimal rain chances except along the immediate coastline as the main movement of the storm will be to the south. New long period swell will build overnight 4-6 ft @ 19 seconds while an older northwest swell fades 3-4 @12 seconds. Swell direction around 300 degrees. Winds will shift strongly to the north through the holiday weekend - creating large windswell of 11-13ft by Monday/Tuesday. Background, smaller northwest swells linger through the next five days or so. These will all be longer period northwest swells. Late next week, pattern could see a major shift out in the Pacific as the jetstream looks to get robust coming off Japan at 200kt - this should support storm development as well as a rainy pattern again potentially for CA. La Niña has faded, we are in ENSO neutral now moving towards El Niño later this year (summer). Will be interesting to see if we have a late winter run of weather and swell that holds into April and May. All will be revealed over the next couple weeks! Cya in the water.
Monday, February 6, 2023
UPDATED FORECAST FEB 6
Windy start to the week, but things will settle down mid week as high pressure builds in. AM sessions might see some offshore winds, especially around the Bay Area. Swell jumped up overnight and is around 14ft @ 14 seconds from 300. Bigger than forecast. North winds blowing over the outer waters and near shore in spots along the coast. Swell will gradually fade overnight but a new long period northwest swell will build in on Tuesday - peaking Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM at 8-9ft @16 seconds. That swell fades Thursday and another builds in on Friday. Lightest winds for midweek, but it will be a bit breezy everywhere. Plenty of swell around, just have to know your spots. Rain might come back into the picture next weekend. Out around the 19th of Feb, things might get interesting with our weather as the jet stream organizes and gets charged by the Active MJO. Cya in the water.