UPDATED FORECAST FOR NEW YEARS WEEKEND

Storm door is open and going to continue to dump rain on us through first week of January.  Swell has come down but still quite solid this am at 10ft @12 seconds.  Swell will drop further Friday to 7-9ft and then crank back up quickly Friday night into Saturday at 10-13ft at 15 seconds, building further Saturday at 12-14 ft at 14 seconds.  Swell direction through the period mostly west at 280 to 300 degrees.  Winds will go west to northwest strongly over the weekend with rain, heavy at times through Monday.   South to southwest winds the norm until Saturday night.  Spots that like south wind and northwest wind the call.   Plenty of swell around, tricky with all the wind, rain and swell.   Winter!   Happy New Year and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-21 - HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE!

 Another clean, but small morning - west swell around 2-4 ft at 14-15 seconds.  Winds are light northeast to east.   King Tides coming up this Friday and Saturday so plan your sessions accordingly!   We will see an increase in west swell tonight, 2-3 ft @19 seconds, filling in on Thursday to 4ft@17 seconds.   Bit more swell coming Friday as size gets up to 5-7ft at 14 seconds.   These smaller west swells mostly 270-280 degrees.   The next real swell starts Christmas Day - where we could see swell heights jump back into the 10-12ft range.   If you look at the long range models - all are now starting to lean into a very stormy post Christmas week into the first part of January - as the jet stream is going to do something it's not done in a few winters - consolidate all the way across the Pacific east to west - around 35north - with copious amounts of rain potentially as a atmospheric river sets up somewhere between N Cal and Oregon.   Certainly spots north of Sonoma have the potential to see a lot of weather, but Bay Area/Central Cal should get in on the action as well.   A lot of messy, large storm surf will probably result - so enjoy the next 3-5 days as winds will be relatively light with increasing swell.   We need the rain and high elevation snow so it's good to see on the horizon.  Happy Holidays and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-12

XL northwest swell peaked overnight - around 17-18 ft with long periods at buoys north of Jenner.   Large, at times clean, swell roared in and is starting a gradual downward trend today but still solid this morning at 14ft @14 seconds.  Like many of the swells so far this season - fairly steep angle at 315 degrees which for SF will be shadowed some by Pt Reyes.   North of Pt Reyes, not as much.    The trend this week will be for declining swell - back into the fun zone with ideal winds setting up most of the week up and down the coast as high pressure/blocking high establishes itself over the region.  This will also shunt the storm track to the north through at least next weekend giving us no rain for the next 7 days.   It will be very cold all week, with light winds and water temps will remain on the chilly side.   Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-2

 Back to back swells through about Monday will keep surf in the overhead to well overhead range.   Bigger north of Bodega Bay.  Tomorrow a new storm system comes in bringing rain and south winds to the region.   SW winds through Sunday turning west on Monday.  Not ideal.  Much lighter winds forecast from Tuesday on - but also not much swell either as we will be between systems and storm producing events in the N Pac.  I'm off next week - back on Dec 10, resume forecasts after.   Cya in the water!

THANKSGIVING FORECAST

Happy Thanksgiving.  Northwest swell left overs today 4-6 ft at 13 sec and some south in the water 2ft at 15.  Northwest swell direction about 295.  South 185.  Large long period west swell has been hitting the Papa Buoy since around 9pm last night.   Looks like it peaked around 20-23 ft at 17 sec - quite solid.  That is the swell for late tonight and Friday - which will equal double overhead and bigger waves at north/west facing beaches, reefs and points.  Winds pretty light today and tomorrow - then might pick up strongly though the weekend as a few weak weather systems move through the region as high pressure exits.  A week ago it looked like we might get a lot of rain and snow this coming week - but models have trended drier with each run.   Probably going to see some rain - especially north of the Bay Area - Sunday night into Monday and then again mid week.  Either way - plenty of surf on tap for the next 4-5 days.  Biggest wild card through the period will be wind direction.   Get some and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 11-17

Mid size long period swell filling in today - 5-8ft at 15-16 seconds.  From around 295 deg.  Mostly clean conditions and small to mid size swell through Monday.   Bit of an uptick in winds tonight into Friday - might be offshore at the coast - light winds through weekend.   Could be transitioning back to a wet period early next week so get on it while we have this nice break in the weather.  Cya in the water.   

NEXT LARGE SWELL IN THE CUE....

Papa Buoy showing 15-16 ft with long periods this AM - (Oregon Buoy even bigger at 18-20 ft) this is the next swell set to come ashore late today/tonight and be in full force on Monday.   Storm door is open with rain, wind, mountain snow will to accompany the swell making for pretty challenging conditions from SF to the Oregon border.  Nooks and crannies might have some windows for the next few days as the XL swell looks to stick around.  Improving conditions around mid week with smaller swell and lighter winds.   Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-27 - FIRST SIG NW SWELL OF SEASON TO COME

 Decent size northwest swell to continue for N Cal through the next five days or so until a bigger swell train moves in.   Early this AM swell is about 7 @12 Bay Area, closer to 9@12 north of Bodega.  Swell direction pretty steep angle at 315 deg.   Look for a new nw swell to come in on Friday at 6-8 ft @16 seconds, pushing up to 9-11ft at 15 sec on Saturday.   Remaining decent into Sunday at 7-9ft.   Biggest north of Bodega Bay.   Best winds look likely tomorrow with light nw flow, stronger winds again Sat through Monday - although AM winds might trend offshore nearshore.  Meanwhile, a large storm system in the Gulf of AK coming out of the Aleutians is pushing east and will stall over the weekend up near British Columbia.  At the same time a Pacific High will dive SE alongside it and the combo will push a very long, strong fetch of winds and 311 degree swell our way for late Monday into Tuesday.  This will likely be our first real swell of the season with deepwater swell heights on order 14-18ft - perhaps pushing 20ft north of Bodega Bay.  More on this late Sunday or Early Monday as things become clearer.   Weather wise, high pressure is lingering around us, but the overall trend out in the Pac is bias towards low pressure.  Eventually we should start to see some rain chances increase by early November - but the models have been hinting at a pattern change for two weeks now and the ridge of high pressure has remained tough.  Dust off the guns for next weeks swell.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-21 - STORM DOOR OPENS A BIT.....

 N PAC getting active and current swell will fade into the weekend.   Might get some rain north of Sonoma - biggest thing through the weekend will be the northwest winds - they're going to rage and kick up a pretty strong wind swell.  Northwest swell will stay medium size through the weekend - 4-7 ft - 11-12 sec stuff.  NOAA is showing a south swell - 2 ft at 18-20 seconds - but not sure I'm buying it to show much north of Santa Cruz due to the very strong headwinds it will run into coming up the coast.  Next week more weather on and off - and looking ahead seeing some potentially very large northwest swells to close out October.  Check back for details on that!   Should be plenty of waves around - just know your spots and check your winds!   Cya in the water!   

UPDATED FORECAST OCT 10TH

The week ahead stays on the small side with a few notables:

South swell will continue most of the week at 2-3ft at 17-18 seconds.  Fading Thursday.  

Northwest swell continues on the smaller side - look for an uptick Tuesday at 7-9 ft @9 sec, Wednesday 5-7ft @10 seconds - fading some into the weekend.   Bigger north, smaller Bay Area south.  

Winds are going to crank up today/tonight over the outer northern waters and southern outer waters - so look for some bump and janky conditions at breaks open to the wind/waves.  Wind should fade some into mid week, but then look to ratchet back up again by the weekend.   Nearshore winds might be lighter or trend offshore some mornings - since we do have a dry weather system heading into the Great Basin to give us some offshore flow - but it will be light.  Fire danger remains low, coast should still see fog and drizzle.   No change in the weather pattern or surf pattern until mid to later October when models are hinting at a pattern shift - hopefully this blocking high pressure will vacate the region.   We should start seeing some bigger fall waves later in October either way.   

Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-28

 Our first more significant northwest swell is hitting the outer buoys and will fill in overnight.  West Oregon buoy peaked around 3am at 19 ft 11 seconds.   Papa Buoy earlier at 19ft 13 seconds.  This is all from a storm system in the Gulf of Alaska that is now bringing some rain to parts of Oregon and far Northern CA (Crescent City).   Swell will peak Thursday/Friday at 8-10 ft @ 11-12 seconds.   Certainly enough to bring some winter spots to life for a time.  Winds are light today but unfortunately going to turn north to northwest strongly later today and last until Sunday.  It's officially Fall, so that means early season storms heading into the Great Basin and offshore/north winds behind it.   The usual set up and that's what we will have.   Spots that can handle that wind direction will be cleanest.  Swell will rapidly fall Saturday on.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-17 - FIRST NW SWELL ON THE WAY....

Early season storm door is open as the remnants of Typhoon Merbok about to make its presence known along the West Coast with rain, wind, mountain snow and swell.   Weather wise - rain will start far north overnight and spread throughout the Bay Area Sunday.   Heaviest rain will be in the north bay, probably 1-3 inches depending on location - lighter amounts further south you go but still pretty decent for a September rain event.   Winds will switch to south overnight and be quite strong Sunday into Monday - then lighter winds Tuesday/Wednesday.   We have two small souths in the water - one fading out today and another set to rise overnight - probably maxing out at 2ft 17-18 seconds.  Monday swell from the remnants of Typhoon Merbok start to show at 2-3 ft at 20 seconds from 308 deg.    Swell will be 3ft at 18 seconds Tuesday into Wednesday.   We will see a bump of northwest wind swell at the same time, shorter periods - 9-10 seconds - overall good northwest breaks will probably see waves head high and better at times - smaller the further south you go.   **Note, the typhoon swell was heavily shadowed by the Aleutians - so it will be quite lully at times.   That combined with the northwest wind swell, sw swell might make for some interesting conditions at a lot of breaks.   So, some exciting days ahead with the weather and waves!  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST SEP 9

 Steep angled (330) larg-ish north wind swell making its way from north to south this morning - 9.3@11 seconds north of Bodega, smaller towards Bay Area, but size should increase through the morning.  Strong south swell is fading out today while a new swell overtakes and reinforced through the weekend.  This next series of south swell won't be as big as this last one - look for deepwater heights in the 2 to 2.5ft range - from 189-194.   No real storms on the horizon yet in the N Pac but keeping a watch.   Winds look strong from the northwest today especially northern outer waters - fading into the weekend with light winds forecast through Sunday.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1!

Welcome to the 2022/2023 surf season in Northern California.  You made it through!  While things aren't in full swing yet in the N Pac, watching the satellite feeds over the past couple weeks it's showing an active pattern already with low pressure systems swinging out of the Bering Sea into the Gulf.  In fact we've already had a few minor Gulf wind swells - with one in the water right now at 4ft @11 seconds, and another due in starting Saturday of a similar size.   Background south swells through the holiday weekend but on the smaller side - 2ft or so with the best of the group starting on Monday.   Northwest winds through the weekend strongest out waters - with the "heat dome" over us could see lighter winds nearshore each morning and late afternoon/early evening.  You've probably read or heard we are heading into a triple dip La Niña this fall/winter - right now that forecast is suppose to show La Niña fading out by December as we move to a state called ENSO Neutral - which means exactly what it says - which should be equal chances for normal rainfall/weather - or not!   We could really use a wet winter around the West, but without a clear El Niño signal anytime soon - unlikely to happen.   That said - for SF north - especially Sonoma County to the Oregon border - expect similar rainfall amounts to last season perhaps more.  That's it for now.  Cya in the water.  

SUMMERTIME

I'm taking the summer off and back with regular reports after September 1!  Cheers and have a great summer!   

NEW ZEALAND SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND.....

 Decent run of south/southwest swell underway this week - hovering around 2ft at 17 seconds 215.   These swells originated to the east of NZ and moved north some which always increases the size of the swell inbound.   The bigger of the two swells due to arrive late week - probably overnight Thursday for long period forerunners and filling in through the day on Friday to 3ft at 17 seconds from 215.   Swell should stick around through the weekend.   Now for the winds - northwest gales continue today and will lighten up through the week and finally turning light north on Friday, then strongly out of the south over the weekend as we have a late season, very strong storm system that is due to hit Nor Cal over the weekend bringing rain, wind to areas mostly north of Santa Cruz.   So plenty to ride just gotta hit the right spots with the winds.   Cya in the water!  

THAT'S A WRAP ON THE N PAC FOR THE SEASON....S PAC BUSY.....

 N Pacific swell machine has shut down for the season - but windswell will remain the primary source of any kind of waves for the foreseeable future with high pressure in control and the gradient between that and low pressure over the Central Valley/Southwest creating brisk winds out over the ocean and very cold water temps.  Pt Arena showing water temp of 46.8 this am!  Chilly.   Southern Hemisphere is active and while there are no major south swells on the horizon we do have a long run of smaller south swell in the water now.  Swell will hover around 2ft at 17 seconds from 190 - gradually fading out by Sunday.   NW winds will blow quite hard for the next seven days and beyond - in fact probably just keep blowing until the fog bank sets up for summer or we get into September - ha.   So - seek out your protected wind spots that like south swell, grab a floaty board and you can ride.  Cya in the water.   

SOUTHERN HEMI AWAKE, NORTH PAC NOT DONE YET

Swell in the water from every direction right now - new southwest is 2.9@20 seconds and the northwest is holding well at 8@15 seconds.  Southwest direction is around 205 - NW is 295 - both pretty ideal directions for N Cal breaks.   Winds have trended south for the most part due to the low pressure systems brushing N Cal - with rain from the Sonoma County/Mendocino County line north to Oregon.  Heavier rain further north you go.  Looks for things to stay unsettled through about next Wednesday with on and off light bouts of showers.   Swell will remain in the water from both hemispheres for the most part - changing some day to day.  Winds will be highly variable depending on frontal passages and Northwest winds blowing behind each front.  So keep an eye on the winds, plenty of swell around and options abound.   Cya in the water.    

UPDATE FORECAST 4-21 - XL SWELL INBOUND

Last storm pulling through today and will clear out over the weekend.  For Bay Area and south - that might be it for a while - north will still see some chances of rain on and off into May.   Low pressure does appear to hang around the N Pac for a while - so we could end up having a wet May.   Some areas north of Bodega have seen upwards of 8 inches of rain since this storm cycle started earlier in April.   As for waves - XL swell just hitting the outer buoys - Mendocino is showing 10ft @18 seconds.  Papa Buoy looks to have peaked overnight at 24ft @16 sec.  Pretty solid for late April.   This new swell is pretty west - 288 deg and was supercharged by extratropical storm Malakas which traveled across the N Pac this week.   Look for south winds today changing to west on Friday and then going northwest over the weekend.  There will be decent swell through Monday at this point - just smaller each day.   Winds will more than likely be the issue - so check it.   Plenty of swell around however.  Cya in the water.  

APRIL - 4-2 UPDATED FORECAST

 No break from the northwest winds - water temps have dropped to 48 far north, low low 50s Bay Area to the south.  We do have some good size swell moving in early next week - it will peak Tuesday at 14-16 ft at 16 seconds - still some size Wednesday and fade more Thursday.   But those pesky north winds will not much give us much of a break - other than Monday.   The storm that created the incoming swell due to move over N Cal late Sunday into Monday morning.  Likely no rain south of Sonoma County - but wetter the further north you go.   After that - high pressure builds back in with a warm up - maybe a hint of rain next weekend - but nothing that is going to really help at this point.   Keeping an eye on the southern hemisphere - waiting for things to wake up down under.   Until then, enjoy this upcoming swell - might be the last one for a while.   Cya in the water.  

MARCH

March 1st is the traditional end to our "good" wave season as most of you know who have followed my blog for years as well as living and surfing in Nor Cal.   The days get longer, wind stronger and N Pac swells less reliable.   Not to say we can't have swell production well into April from the N Pac, but odds slowly decrease, especially this year, with a fading La Nina.   It does look like for the next week or so we will have some weather - including much needed rain - our current large west swell will continue to fade into midweek.   Issue will be the winds building out of the northwest through the week - getting quite strong by weeks end.  We will see another mid period Gulf swell build in tomorrow from 290-295 - peaking around 7@14 seconds, fading late Thursday.   Then wind swell will take over Friday into the weekend.  Because of ongoing storm activity in the N Pac - we could see more swells well into the first week of March and beyond - will update on those later this week.  So, plenty to ride, keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water!  

WINTER RETURNS.....UPDATED FORECAST 2-22

Cold system dropping south today is bringing light rain, low elevation snow and hail to Nor Cal.  Winds have been howling over the ocean for a few days now - ocean temps responding accordingly - Pt Arena Buoy is 49 deg and dropping.  SF Buoy, low 50s.   It's going to get quite cold the next few nights and as we head towards March the pattern looks to remain unsettled.   High pressure, which has been camped out for almost two full months in and around the west coast is building back in, but will retreat some to the west as we head into March allowing for some storms to dive in on the back side - like October/December, however these storms will have less moisture to work with.  That said, we will take anything we can get.   Swell production wise - the N Pac is active and we will start to see progressively larger swell trains as we head into the weekend and following week.   Forerunners of this coming weekend swell will run in Friday night - 2ft at 24 seconds to start!  Saturday should start out 7-9 ft, long periods with swell maxing on Sunday at 10-12ft, long periods.   Winds look to drop off briefly Friday, but ramp back up Saturday from the south 15-20 kts, and Sunday, 10-15 kts from the south as we have a chance of rain starting Saturday.   Upshot, lot of weather in our forecast along with swell.  Should be stuff to ride if you know where to look!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - FEB 11

 Small west swells to move through the waters and light winds until Monday.   A storm system will drop down the west coast Monday into Tuesday - northwest winds will increase strongly behind front passage and last through mid week at least.  Meager amounts of rain down to about the Mendo/Sonoma County line is all we will squeeze out of this one.  High pressure builds back in behind it - at least until next weekend and then we might see the pattern change the models have been hinting at for 4-6 weeks now.  Should see some big wind swell Monday and Tuesday, larger long period northwest swell looks to roll in next Wednesday.  Overall, waves around, might favor the beach breaks this weekend with the smaller size.  Cya in the water. 

FEBRUARY IS THE NEW APRIL

Well, it sure looks like spring time even though Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow which means six more weeks of winter.  No rain in sight through Mid Feb.   Long term predictions still show some sign of hope later in the month - lets hope those models are right.  Otherwise we are about to enter the 2nd driest period on record over the course of a winter.  The driest?  1976 drought induced winter.   Otherwise - we have a lot of wind, lot of wind swell and cold water as the temps are dropping fast.   There are some small nw swells moving through the waters this week, but hardly noticeable due to the dominant wind swell.  You can probably find some places to ride that are sheltered from the nw wind and like big steep wind swell.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 1-14

 Quick note that the California Buoy is back in place and reporting again.  This is a good intermediate buoy between the Papa Buoy and our offshore buoys to get a good sense of incoming swell trains and swell decay.   The large swell of the past week is fading some today, but still solid up north (11ft @11-12 sec), smaller SF Area to Santa Cruz.   Swell will hold today and a new west swell will run in under starting at 2ft@21 seconds.   Strong north winds over the outer waters will fade tonight and the weekend looks really nice with fun size north and west swells 7-9 ft at 14 sec and 2-3 at 16 sec.  Direction about 295 to 305.  MLK Day looks smaller and still very clean with the winds.  No rain in sight until end of Jan as we are locked down under high pressure again.   There are signs as we move into February the pattern will change again and may remain stormy well into March.   So enjoy the nice run of weather and swells from far away storms.  Cya in the water.