HERE WE GO - XXL SURF THIS WEEK

First major winter storm of the year is approaching OR/CA this afternoon.  This weather system is essentially going to "bomb" off the North Coast late tomorrow, with perhaps all time low mb pressure for the date of 978mb set back in 2010.  Forecast calling for 975mb.  Given the winds, close proximity of the storm center - look for giant surf late Tuesday into Wednesday night - wave heights approaching 30-35 ft Mendocino County north.  Deepwater will be 23-25ft at 17 seconds - quite impressive.  Swell will stay on the XL side until Thanksgiving, then things will fall back to more mortal heights 9-11 ft on Turkey Day, 6-8 ft on Friday.  Lots of crazy wind coming, from all directions.   Badly needed rainfall will be a welcome sight and should be heavy at times.  Might be some spots to surf but don't look for anything very clean until later this week.  Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water!

NEXT SWELL IN THE CUE

Cape Mendo Buoy showing early signs of our next swell.  5ft plus at 20 seconds.  Swell will filter down the Coast all day while filling in and be solid by Saturday morning.  Saturday and Sunday will feature deep water swell in the 9-12 ft range at 17-19 seconds.  Winds look decent the next few days. East winds this morning.  Light northwest tomorrow and into Sunday, stronger over the outer waters. Look for a run of swell to come well into next week as the N Pac is getting very active.   We should see our first real soaking rain of the Fall beginning about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  Cya in the water.

UPDATE ON INBOUND SWELL

Long period forerunners will start late Thursday into Thursday evening.   Probably 8ft @19 to start.  Swell direction will be 296-300 - partially shadowed in the Bay Area.  Swell will peak Friday at 8-12 ft @17 seconds.  Gradual fade into the weekend but decent size still on Saturday.  Winds look fairly light Thursday and Friday, perhaps an increase in north to northwest winds for Saturday and Sunday - but AM sessions and near shore areas might still be decent.   Cya in the water.

MID PERIOD SWELLS, LARGE SWELL END OF NEXT WEEK

Today through Thursday - back to back mid period west/northwest swells - 3-6ft - 13-15 seconds should be the rule with winds remaining fairly light for the morning sessions.  Might see stronger winds in the afternoons.  A very large area of low pressure is currently filling the North Pacific from a spot northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.  This will be our swell maker for Friday and next weekend with very large surf possible.   Right now could see long period forerunners on Thursday, then the swell fills in more on Friday.   I  will dial it in a bit further as we get into the week but certainly going to see double to triple overhead waves at the top winter breaks from the Bay Area north.   Stay tuned, cya in the water.

SMALL AND CLEAN

Small west/northwest swell for the week ahead.  Clean skies, light winds and no rain in sight.  That means no storm production for swell either until the jetstream starts to track west.   Things might change mid month.  Until then enjoy this fall weather.   Cya in the water.