BIG AND STORMY

Pt Arena Buoy is 16ft at 14 seconds this am.  Whoa.   Next in a series of storm systems knocking on the door which will bring rain, high winds and large surf.  Another large west swell lines up for later this week.   Storm door is open, south wind door is open, swell door is open.  Perhaps a good time to travel south to the safety of So Cal or Baja.   Cya in the water.  

THANKSGIVING WEEK FORECAST - ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN

This AM features offshore winds, cool temps and lingering northwest swell - 4-5 ft at 12-13 seconds. Today and part of tomorrow should be the last of the smoke filled days as our weather pattern finally shifts into something that looks like late autumn.   A series of Pacific weather systems will impact CA starting late Tuesday and lasting through at least Friday, perhaps longer for our northern areas through the weekend.   Southeast winds will be on the rise tomorrow and get stronger through about Wednesday night - transitioning over to southwest winds Thanksgiving Day and Friday.   Small west swell will continue and then build Wednesday with long period forerunners at 3-4 ft @18 seconds.  Thursday, west swell will be 8-11ft and 10-12ft on Friday (deep water heights).   Heaviest rain looks to be Wednesday (with mountain snow) - and then again late Thanksgiving Day into Friday.   Plenty of swell on tap - winds just look a bit dicey.   However, if you know your spots you might find some moments.   Happy Thanksgiving, cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOLID SWELL FOR MID/LATE WEEK

East winds continue to transport heavy smoke from the Camp fire in Paradise to the Bay Area and points north.   Small surf today, 2-3 ft - mix of southwest and northwest swells.   Look for swell to ramp up late Wednesday - probably overnight - and be quite solid for Thursday/Friday - with stand out winter breaks back in the double to triple overhead range.  Light winds should continue Wednesday, increase from the northwest on Thursday and then back off again Friday/Saturday.   This incoming swell will gradually fade through the weekend.   AM sessions should be pretty clean through the period - just check the winds later in the week.   For those looking for any sign of rain - long term models aren't really showing anything until Thanksgiving or beyond.   The good news is the blocking ridge of high pressure, which has been situated offshore for almost a month is forecast to move out and low pressure will take it's place.   How long and how much rain we will get - too early to know.   Models should have a better handle on that by early next week.   Until then, should be plenty of surf on tap.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - Good week for work

Not much to talk about this week.  High pressure is locked offshore around 135W.  Almost stationary and shunting storms to our north.   Strong northwest winds and junky short period windswell through the week.   No rain in sight which is not a good thing with November upon us.  Pattern might start to break down middle of the month - but nothing solid on the charts right now for swell or weather.  Cya in the water.