Next Forecast on 11-3

I'm away this weekend so won't be updating the blog.  I can say there is plenty of swell headed our way - some wind and rain too by Sunday/Monday.  Check the winds and buoys.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/10-25

Interesting week of weather past, Patricia, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere (and a product of this year's El Nino) came ashore south of Puerto Vallarta with sustained winds of 200mph.  Higher gusts were recorded around 248mph while the system was still offshore.  Winds equivalent to an F4 tornado.  Because the storm came ashore between major population centers damage was extensive, but not catastrophic as forecast.  By now you probably also read about the cluster of large great whites sighted by the US Coast Guard between OB and Pacifica - fairly close to shore.  Interesting as well, perhaps related to the warm surface temps - doubt anyone knows for sure.  Uncle Whitey is out there.   For today, new good size WNW swell is filling in this morning and pushing surf heights back to double overhead range at top winter breaks with exposure to the swell direction.  Winds are light onshore.  Look for the swell to increase all day and peak tomorrow with deepwater swell in the 6-10ft range.  Lighter winds tomorrow morning.  The remains of Hurricane Olaf, now well north and east of Hawaii will get entrained by a strong Gulf of Alaska low over the next 24-48 hours.  The winds will increase over the open waters and send a good size swell our way mid week - with deep water heights back in the 6-10ft range on Wednesday and 8-12ft on Thursday.  Unfortunately, weather from this system may come ashore at the same time making a mess of things from a wind stand point.  Something to keep an eye on.  Surf will stay elevated into next weekend with a gradual improvement in the winds as high pressure regains control.  Plenty of size the next few days - check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead/Updated Forecast 10-20

Lots of surf on tap this week with west/northwest, southwest and some tropical south/southwest in the water.  Pretty much west northwest swell in the water today and tomorrow (shoulder to head hight plus) - then a larger swell builds in late Thursday and Friday with deepwater swell peaking on Friday in the 8-10ft range.  Tropical southwest swell from Hurricane Olaf, out near Hawaii will mix in Thursday and Friday as well.  For sure the dominant swell will be the northwest which should keep waves going through next weekend as a new pulse moves in next Sunday.   Southwest swell in the background all week as the South Pacific remains very active for this time of year.  Winds should stay pretty light for am sessions this week - offshore flow trying to set up but might not make it all the way to the coast each day.  NO rain in the forecast through the period - but models are hinting at perhaps a pattern change over a week out.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast/October 16th

Nice couple of days past - small mix of southwest and northwest swells and light winds.  Storm system in the Gulf of Alaska will drop in overnight and spread rain from far Northwest CA thru the Bay Area.  Rain amounts around here will be very light a few hundredth's if we're lucky - most of the precipitation will fall from Sonoma County north.  Swell will come in late tomorrow - peaking late Saturday into Sunday.  Look for double overhead waves Sunday at north facing breaks.  Swell will be on the slow rise all day tomorrow.  Unfortunately, northwest winds look to pick up late Saturday on behind the front.  Lightest winds tomorrow morning for sure, maybe again Sunday AM.  But afternoons will feature stronger onshore winds.  Check it for sure.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday October 12th

Pt Arena is back online.  Along with the CA Buoy back and Pt Reyes Deepwater we have our eyes to the swells once again.   Large west swell is winding down today - 7-8 ft at 11 seconds.  Look for this swell to hang around a good part of the week.   Winds don't look that bad until about Friday when things might pick up from the northwest again.  Solid southwest swell is in the water - 3ft at 18-20 seconds and we should have overlapping southwest swells through most of the week.  Slight chance of rain mid week, south of the Bay Area from a system that has retrograded north of Baja turned back to the west and moving to the northwest/northeast.    Better chance of rain next weekend as a system from the North Pacific drops in.  Check the winds each morning - plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Wednesday Oct 7th - Unusual swell on the way ** Welcome Back CA Buoy!

Hurricane Oho is east of Hawaii and now tracking quickly to the northeast getting caught up in a larger low pressure complex circulating in the Gulf.  What is unusual for us, a fairly large west/southwest swell will begin to fill in on Friday (230-260 deg) and we could see well overhead to double overhead sets at stand out breaks.  As Oho gets absorbed into the larger system swell will turn northwest (270-300 deg) late this weekend and hold thru the middle of next week.  Stand out winter breaks will certainly be overhead and possibly larger - i'll update on that swell late this weekend.  Lightest winds will be found each morning - especially Thurs/Friday around the Bay Area.  Farther north winds might be a bit more suspect as northwest CA is much closer to the storm energy that will be impacting Oregon and Washington.  The pipe is wide open from way south of Hawaii all the way to BC.  Encouraging this early in the season and the thinking is as we get a bit later into the Fall and Winter set ups like that will start to focus the energy and rain onto CA.  Let's hope so.  If you open the Pacific Satellite link to the right and click on the 16k or 28k infrared imagery you will see all the energy flowing into the Northwest.  It's impressive for early October.  El Nino slowly starting to assert influence on the jet stream in the Pacific.  This El Nino, it's signature is very different from 97' or 82' - it's taking it's sweet time developing.  A slow train wreck and the full impact probably won't be felt until the heart of the winter - Jan to Mar.    One more small day and then things will get busy.  Check the winds.  I suspect more than a few unusual spots will open up on that first west/southwest shot starting Friday.  Cya in the water.  Finally, CA Buoy is once again back online and starting to transmit.  Just in time too.  This gives us a window out to incoming swell trains 350 nautical miles west of San Francisco.

Updated Forecast/Sunday Oct 3

Pt Reyes Buoy showing 10-12 ft at 10-12 seconds from 310 at this hour.  Unseasonably strong upper low pressure system is dropping straight down CA from Canada bringing gale force winds over the ocean and land.  Winds will peak between 10pm and 2am tonight and then slowly start to diminish on Sunday.  Swell heights to our far north will be 12-18 ft by the morning, lower past Pt Reyes.  Water temps as you might expect are starting to fall - dropping 2 degrees at Bodega in the past 12 hours or so.  I'd expect another couple degrees by mid day tomorrow.  Model guidance earlier this week really missed the size of the mid period swell also in the water and i believe most other forecasters are under calling wave heights for the current event.  I'd look for overhead surf tomorrow morning at north facing breaks with wind - smaller at south facing spots.  Check the winds, should be plenty of swell around.   Quick look ahead to next week should feature much smaller surf.  Next interesting run looks to be around mid month.  Stay tuned and i'll update again next week.  Cya in the water.