Updated Forecast/Wednesday 9-30

Sat photo tells the story or our swell maker for the weekend.  Nice small storm in the Gulf pushing winds and resulting swell in our direction.  Probably look for building swell all day Friday peaking over the weekend.  Biggest surf north - but most Bay Area breaks with good exposure to the west/northwest will see head high waves with overhead sets at the top breaks.  This will be mid period swell - probably in the 12-14 second range.  Winds right now could be problematic as strong north winds are forecast late week as another low is forecast to drop down the West Coast from BC (Inside Slider) which will create strong north to northeast winds over the weekend and cool temps.  Check the mornings - that will be when you will find the lightest winds.  North Pac looks active further to the West which should give us more swell as we move into the month of October.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday Sept 28

Light to variable/onshore winds this morning and should be the case the next few mornings.  Wind swell remains the primary source of waves - deepwater 3-5 ft at 8-10 seconds.  Small southwest swell is going to build in late today and might be good for some waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks.  Not a lot of surf this week.  Waiting on the N Pac to open up and generate some real long period swell.  We do have a low pressure system due west way off shore and that may bring us some mid period swell for the coming weekend.  More on that mid week.  Northwest winds may ramp up from Wednesday on too - will update.  Cya in the water.

Updating Forecast Links 9-24

Couple posts back I indicated the CDIP Pt Reyes Deepwater Buoy was taken offline.  Did some checking tonight on the CDIP website and it looks like it's still transmitting.  So I am putting the link back on the forecast.  Also putting a link to the Monterey CDIP Deepwater Buoy.    Wasabi.....

Updated Forecast/Thursday Sept 24

Winds have been lighter than forecast near shore the past couple days - but still fairly strong over the outer waters and northern buoys.  So worth a check if you have time.  New mid period northwest swell is building in 4-5 ft at 11-13 seconds from 280 +.  Still have wind swell in the water - (8-9 second energy) and a very small southwest swell in the 1-3ft range.   Large area of low pressure circulating in the Gulf of AK - but all associated rain is moving into the Pac Northwest.  That system is going to meander through the weekend and may continue to send us some mid period swell through the period.  Winds, as a result, may be highly variable.  So keep an eye on it - certainly some swell in the water.  Cya in the water.

Happy Fall!

Autumn Equinox happened at 120am this morning.  It's officially the first day of Fall.  Let's hope for plenty of swell, rain and some nice offshore wind events.  None of those things to occur between now and the weekend however - decent size wind swell in the water through Friday - but winds look to remain onshore and fairly strong - especially the further north you go.  Good time to get some work done.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday, Sept 21

One more really warm day inland and then things will start to cool off some towards seasonal norms. Short period wind swell in the water with light/variable winds.  Winds should pick up more onshore as the day progresses.  Winds look stronger onshore tomorrow through Wednesday - wind swell will increase in size thru tomorrow and then drop off.  Then we are looking towards a short/mid period swell event (280-320) from Thursday to Sunday, from a system in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska bringing head to overhead waves (biggest from Sonoma north).    Winds look suspect from mid week on due in part to that front moving into the Pac Northwest, so keep an eye on the wind links on the right hand side of the page.  We do have some overlapping southwest swells this week - but nothing remarkable.  Maybe some knee to chest high sets at south facing breaks.  In the bigger picture, the northern branch of the jet stream remains up in Alaska with high pressure anchored offshore and in the Pacific - pretty much the set up we've had for the past four years.  So the connection between El Nino and the N Pac Jet is not showing real improvement just yet.   This should change as we move deeper into the fall and winter when the main impact of El Nino starts to influence the upper atmosphere wind patterns and storm production.  Until then - shorter period/mid period wind swell the rule.   There are a couple tropical systems in the Pacific right now - far west and east - but nothing that looks to give us swell any time soon.  Cya in the water.

Cape Mendo Buoy offline now....

Another buoy to our north has gone offline.  It really will be back to old school surf checks soon - you'll have to drive to see what the surf looks like.  Maybe that's not such a bad thing.....So the Cape Mendo buoy has stopped transmitting - not sure if it's a temporary glitch or it's toast.  It might be toast.  We have deepwater swell in the 5-6ft range at 8-10 seconds from the northwest.  Winds are up a bit onshore - not horrible yet.  Should start blowing far north later today as high pressure regains control.  Good rainfall yesterday. Parts of Marin reported .50 inch of rain - up in Sonoma/Mendo some reports of 2.5 inches.  Decent for Mid Sept.  Look for swell to stay the same the rest of the week.  Might see an uptick over the weekend, but it's just wind swell.  There is a sw swell in the water, which was heavily shadowed by Tahiti.  So expect long waits and not much size - but south facing breaks will show this energy best.   Hint we might see some offshore wind this weekend - but i'm skeptical right now those winds will make it to the coast.  Check it for sure.  Cya in the water.

PT Reyes Buoy Gone

PT Reyes Buoy has been "decommissioned" by the CDIP.  So it's gone.  I had read that the National Park Service was going to try and cover costs to keep online - but unlikely that will happen.  Lost another good window to incoming swells up here - both from the north and south.  At this rate, I will probably start using tarot cards soon to read incoming swell trains.  Mid period northwest wind swell remains in the water today 3-5 ft at 8-10 seconds, but winds are blowing from the northwest in wake of the weather system that brought very light rain to the region yesterday.  Next weather maker is plowing down from the Gulf of Alaska - looks impressive on satellite imagery for Mid September and will bring rain to most of Northern California starting tomorrow morning far north and spreading south through the day.  Good news for the fires raging.  Winds and weather near the coast will continue to be an issue next couple days.  Good time to get some work done.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday Sept 14

Pattern change in the upper levels as the storm track is opening in the NE Pacific sending a series of weather systems our way through about Thursday.  Most of the rain will stay north of the Golden Gate with very light amounts forecast around the Bay Area (.10 to .25 of an inch) - however far northwest CA (Del Norte, Kings Range) will see upwards of 1-2 inches of rain by Thursday morning.   Northern buoys are showing the result - swell is 12-14ft at 9-10 seconds as winds have been blowing steady for 36 hours in the northeast quadrant of the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds are blowing south/southwest in advance of the first front now entering coastal waters.  In fact, don't look for much help in the wind department most of the week as things look marginal at best with south to southwest winds as fronts pass through the region - west to northwest behind.  A harbinger of things to come for this upcoming surf season perhaps?  Northwest windswell will dominate the week.  Biggest to the north.  You might find some windows in between fronts and early am sessions.  Things look to settle down again by next weekend with high pressure building into the region and warm temps returning inland.  May see a new pulse of WNW swell around the 17th/18th - more on that to come and look for a building SW swell later this week (Thursday) for waist/chest high surf at south facing breaks.  Watch the winds, cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/El Nino Update

SSW swell holding steady today at around 3ft 17 seconds from 180.  Wind swell at 3 ft 9 seconds from 310 plus.  This SSW swell will hold thru the end of the week and fade out Friday.   WSW swell from former Hurricane Jimena is fading out today.  Winds near the coast are light but trending onshore and we may see an increase in the fog and wind over the next couple days as the pressure gradient begins to weaken just a tad.  Inland temps will continue hot to extreme so only relief will be near the coast.  On a larger scale, Hurricane Ignacio has turned extra tropical in the North Pacific and will send a shot of steep angled NW swell (300-320) that will build in Thursday (northern areas first) and spread south during the day Friday.  Should fade over the weekend.  Size wise, probably on par with the wind swell now in the water.  The Jetstream in the North Pacific is showing some signs of Fall - but nothing remarkable just yet.  What is more definite is the 2015/2016 El Nino event on track to rival the 82/83 and/or 97' Super Nino events with warm to very warm water throughout the Pacific Basin.  Experts feel this event may be closer to the 82/83 El Nino in that it's location (or focus) is much farther west in the Pacific.  What that means for us, storms form further out and have time to send cleaner swell towards the West Coast.  That's not a given, just analysis from people who know a lot more about this phenomenon that I do.  As with past events, the main impact is the Jan-Mar time period - that's when a mature El Nino peaks.  This one continues to build and shows no sign of slowing down.  So we watch and wait.  Keep an eye on the winds going into the weekend, still should be waves around to ride.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Sunday Night

Overlapping SSW swells in the water tonight with deepwater energy showing 4ft + at 17 seconds from 220+.   Older SSW swell is fading out.  We also have a very steep angled SSE swell (160+) mostly bypassing our stretch of coast.  NW wind swell in the mix as well - 3-5 ft at 8-9 seconds from 310+.  Former Central Pac Hurricane Jimena has pushed out a small southwest/west swell that will start to show tomorrow and Tuesday.  Probably won't notice this swell train much with the bigger sw in the water.  Winds near shore have dropped dramatically and look for mostly calm to offshore conditions the next few mornings with a sea breeze in the afternoon.  Former Central Pac Hurricane Ignacio has turned extra tropical well north of Hawaii, will curve northwest and bring us a shot of fun size northwest swell late in the week.  More on that in a couple days.  Good week ahead for surf - cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Gulf wind swell is 4-5 at 11 seconds from 315 - much bigger surf near Cape Mendo with surf 8-10 ft at 11-12 seconds.  SW swell from Pacific Hurricane Jimena 3-4 ft at 11 seconds from 200.  Northwest winds are already blowing onshore and will increase throughout the day.  Gale warnings up far north, this will increase the wind swell over the next couple days.  I don't see any real let up in the northwest winds through Labor Day right now.  New long period southwest swell will move in Friday and Saturday and feature deepwater heights in the 3-4 ft range at 19-20 seconds.  Swell will continue from Hurricane Jimena at around 3 ft 12 seconds.  Protected spots will be best - need to get out the wind.  Water temps up near Bodega have dropped back to the mid 50s.  Still warmer around SF at 60 deg.  That will change by the end of the weekend, dropping some.  Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER!

Welcome to the 2015/2016 Season.   We had west swell this past weekend from former Typhoon Atsani and steep northwest swell from a low pressure system that brought very light rain from Sonoma north and swell that is still around this morning at 6  to 7 ft - broad range of periods from 10-14 seconds second from 315.  Until Thursday we should have Gulf of Alaska windswell hanging in at around 4-5 ft periods 10-11 seconds, as the storm track is active in the northeast Pac sending small swell our way.  In addition to that - watching for southwest/west swell from Hurricane Jimena - which is presently in the Central Pac - East of Hawaii and forecast to continue a turn to the north.  If swell develops as forecast - look for that to show Tuesday to Thursday - deepwater 2-3 ft from 12-13 seconds - 195 degrees +.    Jimena is still a Category 4 Hurricane and it's location and track that far east of the Hawaiian Islands is very typical of an El Nino season, and Hawaii recently has seen a swarm of hurricanes from all directions.  Upcoming weekend should still feature some surf from Jimena, some new southwest swell building and ongoing windswell.  Winds don't look ideal most of the week with northwest/west onshore strongest mid day on.  Best bet may be early mornings and protected spots.  Plenty of swell to ride however.  Cya in the water.