Winter returns (briefly) and conditions go south

Back to back weak storm systems moved through our region bringing some measurable rain and northwest winds.  What a distant memory now all those fine days earlier this month and in December yeah?  Don't look for things to improve much, northwest winds today and tomorrow.  On Sunday, another low pressure system will drop south along the coast bringing a threat of rain and light south winds.  Sunday morning might be ok - but far from super clean.  Small surf looks the rule with a bump up Sunday and Monday as a new WNW swell comes in.  Best breaks during these days might be a few feet overhead with the sets.  HIgh pressure builds back in next week, but not as strong as the drought high pressure of the best few months - models hint and another storm next weekend.  Winds next week look northwest - maybe some clean mornings.  More on that after the weekend.  Cya in the water.

Solid surf continues, pattern change in the weather next week

Solid deep water swell continues today - 5-8 ft from 275 + .  Winds are generally light right now as high clouds move overhead from a weak storm system moving in from the south.  Look for generally elevated surf through next Thursday - but our long run of offshore days looks like it will come to an end next week as a strong storm moves in from the Pacific and the blocking ridge of high pressure leaves the region - bringing us badly needed rain.  Right now rain could begin in the North Bay as early as Wednesday night and stick around through Friday.  You can look for south/southwest winds to pick up those days and then northwest blow behind the front.  Until then, plenty of surf on tap just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast late Thursday

Buoys north of Hawaii show the story - 26ft at 17 seconds.  The Islands will be massive later today.  Large surf continues for us and will get much bigger over the next few days as the swell from a massive low pressure circulation (a storm filling almost the entire North Pacific) begins to show late Thursday with 6-8 ft deepwater at 25 seconds.  Swell to increase Friday with long periods and size - 10-14 ft at 18 seconds - maxing out on Saturday at 15-18ft.  Not quite the mega swell models were forecasting a week or so ago - but should be the biggest surf we've seen this winter at most north facing/big water breaks.  Winds look tricky the next few days as an inside slider storm barrels into the Great Basin, then retrogrades towards the CA Coast.  This is going to trigger a strong southerly wind surge late Thursday into Friday.  Then we go back to a north to northwest wind event for the weekend.  Winds over the weekend may very well turn offshore for the mornings.  Could see some drizzle Thursday/Friday from this system - but not much precip expected.  CA remains locked under high pressure through the end of January.  Large storms west of the Dateline will continue to generate swell trains that impact the region.  But no weather will make it past Hawaii.  Cya in the water.

One more small fun day, then a 50 year swell???

Amazing winter conditions continue - offshore winds, day after day of rideable waves.  Friday will see the smallest day of surf for the next 7-10 - with shoulder to head high surf at north facing breaks.  A very potent run of storms north of Hawaii is kicking up swell that will begin to impact our region later in the day on Saturday and continue through all of next week.  Could see potentially extremely large surf around Jan 24-25 if conditions behave as models forecast.  So look for increasing surf late Saturday from 270-300 with double overhead sets expected by sunset.  Larger swell Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - in the 10-15ft range Sunday and then 8-12 ft through the week.  If the mega swell comes in it will show late next Thursday - be full force Friday with deepwater swell heights forecast at 20-30ft!!  This would be one for the ages if it materializes.  **I still think most of the models are too hot on this swell - but it's worth noting they've been pretty consistent for over a week now forecasting extremely large waves.  Should have a better handle on things by the middle of next week.  No end in sight to the offshore winds as summer time high pressure has the region in full lock down from rain and storms.  I can't emphasize enough how dire things are now for California.  We're breaking all sorts of records for lack of rainfall, snowfall, high temps and dry conditions and in many ways could be looking at a drought event never experienced.  So do you part - conserve water and tell family, friends, people you work with to do the same.  It could make a huge difference for all of us next summer.  Enjoy the surf, cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast tonight and tomorrow….

Very powerful winter storm in the northeast Gulf of AK - has whipped up a large swell train which will start to impact the coast tonight and last through Sunday afternoon.  Oregon Coastal buoys are starting to show deepwater in the 18ft range - expect 14-18ft deepwater swell north of Pt Reyes, 12-14ft to the south - with bigger sets and a bit unruly at times.  Period will be 15-16 seconds - angle 300 +.  Winds are going to be northwest tonight and north tomorrow.  Probably won't be very clean at anything west/north facing.  Look for elevated surf levels through most of next week with good conditions as wind turn offshore starting Monday and look to hold through next Thursday.  What little rain we managed to squeeze out today is it for us until the end of January.  Dry weather will dominate the region.  Great for surfers, bad if you're a fern.  Cya in the water.

Our long run of clean days over for now…..

Well, it had to happen, onshore winds have returned after what seems like a month of offshore and clean days.  Don't get too depressed, because it looks like we could see warm temps and offshore winds return next week - but in the short term - swell inbound with northwest winds.  Long period swell will start to build in later tonight (295 to 305) peaking over the weekend.  Looking for deepwater heights in the 6-10ft range from Friday to Sunday.  But winds will be an issue today, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, possibly cleaning up for light morning winds on Sunday.  Best chance of rain will occur Saturday as the tail end of a weather system brushes Nor Cal.  Beyond that, high pressure regains control and no rain is forecast through Jan 20th.  We're almost halfway through our rainy season now and most of the State finds itself in a severe water deficit.  Most areas 5-10% of normal.  We all need to conserve water and anyone reading this blog should tell a friend or two they know.  Most people aren't in tune with the weather like surfers and just think we're having a nice winter.  Well the sun is shining and it's all wonderful, but come July we will all be lucky to get a one minute shower.  Do your part and watch your water use.  Until then, plenty of swell, keep an eye on the winds if you know the coast you'll find spots to ride even during northwest wind events.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Fun size surf continues with very clean conditions.  New WNW swell will fill in late today and waves should be a couple feet overhead on Tuesday at winter breaks.  Smaller Wednesday, swell comes back up late Thursday into Friday and next weekend should feature large surf with 8-12ft of deepwater forecast from a storm whipping up a swell train in the West Pacific.   Winds look good through about Wednesday then we might see an increase in northwest wind flow through the weekend as a few systems brush past us to the north and the high pressure gradient increases down the coast.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Great run of good surf will continue for the rest of the holiday week.  A touch smaller than our past two swell events, but still head to overhead surf at north facing/winter breaks through Sunday.  Winds look decent as well.

Note - NOR CAL Buoy link appears to be offline - i'm sure the fine people in La Jolla will fix when they get back from holiday.

Cya in the water and Happy New Year.