Monday, March 29, 2010

Big Swell All Week

Swell trains lining up and reading to slam the Coast for most of the week. Big right now at 10 ft 14 sec from 305 - but that's nothing compared to what is on the way for Wednesday - surf heights will be back up in the 17-21 ft range (deep water heights). Unfortunately - winds look pretty nasty with storms on and off for the next week. S/SW winds mostly - maybe a turn to the WNW for Wednesday morning and then the best wind morning looks like Friday - when we have variable winds. So, plenty of swell, wind, rain and big ugly - but you might find a few windows of surf if you know where to look.
Keep and eye on the winds. cya in the water.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Winter makes a return next week

WNW swell is slowly fading thru Friday - but still plenty of size in the morning at nw facing breaks - look for surf overhead to double overhead. Lighter winds Friday (and Saturday morning) with N to NE flow. Saturday morning should be fun size at NW facing breaks. Saturday will be the last nice day for a while as the North Pacific is going to unleash a little can of winter time whoop ass on us - starting Sunday night and potentially continuing through next Thursday. Low pressure is going to park itself in the Gulf of Alaska and rotate system after system into our region. We might see a sub tropical tap - if the models stay on the current track. Things could still change - have to see how the forecast models react over the next 2-3 days. For sure we will have swell next week - but I suspect a lot of south wind with it. I'll try to fine tune things on Sunday night. Get out there Friday and for sure Saturday morning. Those look to be the cleanest mornings for the next 7 days. cya in the water.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Not a bad first weekend of Spring

Hope you got out there this weekend - conditions were pretty clean with light winds and a good mix of SW and N swells - bigger today - as the north swell was the dominant feature in the water. We have a storm front passing to our north tonight - so look for nw winds Monday - but by Monday night winds will veer to the N/NE - with possible offshore flow for Tuesday morning. We'll have our current N swell fading thru mid week - but reinforcing shots of NW swell filling in Mon/Tues - and then potentially a much bigger swell from 285-300 later in the week. We also have a good size SW swell (200-220) that will start to show Tuesday/peak mid week. Wed/Thurs mornings look good for AM sessions with light/variable winds possible. Otherwise, we'll have NW winds on and off - strongest in the afternoons. We do have a chance of very light rain Wed and then again Fri - but these storms are forecast to be very weak. Long range models hint we might return to a wet pattern again starting next Sunday and into the following week.
So - plenty of waves on tap this coming week - keep an eye on the winds - and you'll probably get some good windows to jump on it and your favorite break. cya in the water.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

First S/SW swells, continued NW swell

First decent S swell of the season due in for next week - before then, we have a small SW swell (190-200) filling in today - peak on Friday, but linger into Sunday. NW swell in the water and looks to stick around through early next week(various episodes of different size swells). Combination of the NW and SW swells should make for pretty fun conditions at the beach breaks through the weekend. Look for light winds to continue through the morning hours over the next few days. The bigger pulse of SW swell looks to show around Tuesday the 23rd lasting through the week. Still a bit early to call size - but we could be looking at some good deepwater south sets in the 5ft range. Storm corridor East of New Zealand is getting pretty active - which is typical for March/April - perhaps a bit more energized this year with the lingering effects of El Nino. Good signs - hopefully we'll have a good spring of SW swells. cya in the water.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Large Swell Tuesday to Thursday

New WNW swell starting to show tonight - will be quite solid during the day tomorrow. Look for deep water running 10-15 ft and bigger at times - energy from 270-300 degrees. Look for light winds tomorrow AM (NW flow isn't really developing as forecast this week). Wednesday, swell will still be quite solid - dropping a bit into the 8-12ft range - still light winds early. Swell drops out further on Thursday, but for north facing breaks still in the 6-10 ft range. We could see pretty warm temps both Thurs/Fri and possible light to offshore winds. So all n all - not a bad week weather or surf wise. If you like the big stuff - head to the north facing breaks in the mornings. Hint at a return to wet weather seven days out - but that's a long ways off right now.
cya in the water.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Storm passing thru the region tonight - will be out of here by morning. Winds have switched to the nw behind the front and we have a north swell running at 10-14 ft 14/15 seconds from 310-320 - pretty north. Look for breezy nw winds and sunny skies on Saturday - with dropping north swell. Still some size in the morning then dropping during the day. Sunday looks sunny, with a warming trend - but still light nw winds in the morning. Still size at nw facing breaks on Sunday - but south facing will be pretty small. Looking for light morning winds Monday and Tuesday - next solid wnw swell comes in on Tuesday (more West again in this swell) - pushing things back in the 10-15 ft range for the nw facing breaks. High pressure gaining spring time control in the pacific - although we have a chance of rain again late next week. Between now and then, however - really nice weather with inland temps warming up into the 70s by Monday. Enjoy the sun. Cya in the water.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Yes indeed it's Spring

Well in case you missed it yesterday - 40 kt nw winds - Spring is arriving early. Feel the joy. Hope you enjoyed your Fall/Winter - i know i did. Some pretty epic days - far too many to remember. We enter our darkest months now - cold water, nw winds for weeks on end, longboarding goober kooks - and a few windows of good days in between. If you're a sailboarder or kite boarder - you're probably all giddy. For the rest of us - it's about finding shelter from the big nw blows - pray for some continued action from the North Pacific and some early season south swells. Pray for a big ole high pressure dome to park right over Ocean Beach for the entire month of April - shutting down the fog/wind machine to the west (ha, like that will happen). But on the flip side - think how productive you'll be again - your wife/girlfriend/boyfriend/husband might welcome you back into their life. Your kids and/or pets will remember you - so there are some good things about Spring I guess............yeah, right.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Pattern change in the works....

Just looked at the long term weather models and things are transitioning to perhaps a Spring like pattern starting next week. The jetstream/stormtrack is shifting north which means the next series of swells will have a much more northerly angle (300 degree plus events) - shadowing many Bay Area breaks - and creating much smaller surf at south facing breaks. It's too early to grab your windsurfing shit just yet - but things have changed quite quickly (just since my last report earlier this week) as the models have become bearish in their thinking El Nino is going to keep cranking. Forecast storm for tomorrow is losing steam and now it looks like the weekend could be dry (which is good) but we might also have nw winds blowing (bad). Next week - this trend continues. A hint the jetstream will get it's act together in 7-10 days and give us more westerly swell events - but all i can say is it's March - and it's always a month full of wild fluctuations. I still think that the effects of El Nino will influence our weather (and thus waves) well into Spring - but we could be looking at the first signs of things slowing down. We still have a good looking swell coming in for Saturday - so make the best of that. cya in the water.

Santa Barbara Weekend Past

video

some images from our recent excursion into Santa Barbara this past weekend. Wind, rain, wild weather and some amazing waves on Sunday. All around crazy crew raising mayhem with the SB locals. Thanks to Sean Shafer for the film - coming soon to a theatre near you! ha.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

March comes in like lion

Around these parts March is usually viewed as the end of the winter surfing season as we transition into spring - with NW winds, cold water and smaller surf. However, this year with El Nino still in control - look for waves to continue probably well into April. Big swell is peaking today and stays in the 10-15 ft range for Wednesday - however winds are suspect with two storms coming thru our region creating onshore winds. Thursday look for lighter winds and surf still in the 8-10 ft range. Dropping out more on Friday (but still overhead at nw facing breaks). Another new wnw swell shows late Friday and holds thru Saturday - back up to 8-12 ft. Look for lighter winds on Saturday. Looking long term this pattern of storms, surf, winds going back and forth between south, west, nw looks to continue thru middle of next week. So plenty of swell to ride - just keep an eye on the winds and weather.