Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Monday, September 28, 2009
Morning - hope you got some waves this weekend. Bunch of spots looked good yesterday at Ocean Beach with plenty of size mid beach. Weather pattern is changing today with a low pressure system dropping out of the Gulf of AK. Look for NW winds to really ramp up over the next two days - increasing NW Windswell and probably tumbling our nice warm water temps. Look for NW winds 15-17 kts Tuesday, increasing to 21+ kts on Wed. By Thursday, this low pressure system will drop into the Great Basin and should give us a shot of offshore flow Thurs/Fri mornings. If nothing else, winds should be light and variable near shore. Look for rising NW windswell Tues/Wed - shorter period, choppy from a pretty steep angle. By Thursday, a new NW groundswell should fill in from 310-330 - looking good for well overhead sets (perhaps larger) at top NW facing breaks. This storm is still coming together so i'll update more mid week. Cya in the water.
at 9:27 AM
Friday, September 25, 2009
Quick update tonight - swell from Typhoon Choi Wan is starting to show to our north - 8-9 at 2o seconds. Solid. Look for swell to increase all day Saturday and get quite large before dark. Sunday/Monday - super strong swell with double to triple overhead waves at standout NW facing breaks. Swell will start in the 285-300 range and then move more into 310-315 later Sunday into Monday. Winds still a bit tricky, but should be light to variable near shore for the AM sessions. Cya in the water.
at 10:31 PM
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Evening - marine layer refuses to budge. When high pressure set up in the Great Basin and a thermal low set up in the Central Valley over the weekend - we didn't get enough movement West from the Central Valley thermal low to essentially squash the marine air and allow the offshore flow to migrate all the way to the ocean. So we have cool air, dense fog, light south winds nearshore - but inland temps are soaring. We might get a north gradient late in the week - if this ramps up - it could be strong enough to scour the low clouds and fog out. As for the weekend - Typhoon Choi Wan merged with a frontal low in the Gulf of AK - and turned into a super system - pumping out long period WNW swell (285-305) for the upcoming weekend. Swell will be on the rise Friday night, with head high to well overhead surf Saturday afternoon and overhead to double overhead + for Sunday (for NW facing breaks like Ocean Beach). Early buoy readings from the Western Aleutians were showing deep water swell at 22ft 17 seconds. Between now and the weekend - we still have a small WNW swell in the water and some pulses of SW. So still plenty of surf to ride. Cya in the water.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Evening. Hot weather rolling in and will stick around all week. Looks like the warmest days near the Coast will be Monday, Tuesday. Still some fog around tonight - but that should get scoured out Monday. We have plenty of swell around - back to back mid period WNW swells filling in tonight and sticking around thru Thursday. Swell direction 285-300 - mostly 10-12 second periods. By the weekend - still looking for swell from Typhoon Choi-Wan, which right now is curving NE and looks to make a run east across the North Pacific most of the week. As a result, by next weekend we could see a nice shot of WNW swell with longer periods. I'll update mid week. Good week to call in sick. cya in the water. **** - Note on weather conditions near the Coast - s/sw flow and fog along with a very weak onshore gradient is keeping things cool and foggy along the coast. This marine inversion appears to be trapped under the high pressure building aloft. Temps may be much cooler than forecast near the coast - unless the offshore push takes hold all the way to the ocean. That is the forecast - but remains to be seen if it develops.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
Current WNW swell is fading today and tomorrow - but very solid this am with buoys reading 8-9 ft at 11 from 300. Winds are light/variable. Probaby pick up some from the West in the pm. Right now our next swell is due in Thursday/Friday with deep water swell projected at 8-9 ft at 12-14 sec from 289-296. Winds look to stay more on the light side all week for the morning sessions, maybe a bit of funk here and there - but no major blow. Might see a light offshore event starting Friday and lasting thru Sunday if forecast stays on track. All n' all - something to surf for the next 5-7 days - size, shape and winds will depend on your location. The storm track in the North Pacific is active - welcome to the 2009-2010 Fall/Winter surf season in Northern California! Get some.
at 10:42 AM
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Buoys as of Fri AM - Central Alaska - 31 ft at 14 sec, Papa Buoy (600nm offshore) 15 ft at 14 sec. Solid. Weekend swell is on the way. Saturday afternoon is when the real deal should start with head high plus waves later in the day. Sunday - expect some double overhead sets as this swell peaks. Winds look to stay light (we had a nice glass off tonight) thru the weekend. We also have a few weather systems headed our way - with the system late Sunday into Monday giving us our first chance of rain this Fall. Long range models continue to show storm activity in the Gulf of Alaska next week giving us more swell. More on that later in the weekend.
If you like the big stuff - I think Sunday may be your kind of day at places like Ocean Beach. Cya in the water.
at 10:01 PM
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Just shaping up tonight - good WNW swell gaining traction out at the dateline. Look for long period forerunners on the rise Friday - up to 6ft at 17 from 290 (deep water swell height) with period dropping some on Saturday - 7ft at 13-14 sec. This storm is still coming together but this should be a decent pulse of swell for the weekend. Winds looking light Friday/Saturday mornings - especially for the AM sessions. More later in week on this. Fall pattern continues to take shape.
at 11:17 PM
Monday, September 7, 2009
Evening. Steep angled NW swell filled into today - came in later than forecast. At it's peak mid day, some good size sets were coming in at NW facing beaches - head to several feet overhead. Winds never did quite make it full offshore today, as the low pressure system that moved into the Great Basin lost some gusto. Our current NW swell is winding down tomorrow, but thru mid week there will be plenty of waves about as it combines with N windswell. Wind conditions for the remainder of the week are a tough call. Mainly look for WNW to W/SW winds each day. Lightest in the morning hours. Right now Wed/Thurs mornings look like the best windows for variable winds for am sessions. Should be something to ride each day, just not super clean. I am tracking a small pulse of NW swell for next weekend - (from 290-305) and then a potentially bigger NW swell for Mid September - more on that later this week. We do have some background SW swells in the water all week as well - but much of this energy will be lost under the dominant NW push. Cya in the water.
at 7:09 PM
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Well, we have officially made it through another Nor Cal Summer. It's Labor Day weekend and for nor cal surfers, we're like little children awaiting Christmas. Before the weekend outlook - a quick story. You know back in the day, before buoy, wind, weather, cams, swell reports and everything else surfy online - you normally got up in the morning and drove to the beach, taking your chances. I grew up in So Cal, surfing Malibu - and you always got your report from the guy coming your way on the canyon road out to the Bu. A simple thumbs up or down - made your day. I've noticed, driving the roads of Marin - people don't do that much anymore. So I was surprised last weekend when I had my hand out the window with a simple inquiry - I got the old school thumbs up response. Probably another old school type like me that remembers that common stoke. It was cool. As for the weekend - we have a strong low pressure system driving out of the Gulf of Alaska which will bring rain to the NW (and extreme Nor Cal). For us, it's going to cool us down, bring in the fog and the winds for the first part of the weekend at least. Swell looks small today, Friday and then we might start seeing an increase Saturday into Monday. Right now could be looking at surf in the 5-7 ft range at 11-13 sec from 300-302. Depending on how this storm comes together, might be a tad bigger. I think Monday could be the best day for winds - if the storm barrels into the Great Basin we might get some NE/N winds. I'll update Sunday. That's it for now. cya in the water.
at 11:15 AM