Extremely Large Swell for the Weekend

NWS is forecasting deepwater swell 18-20 ft, possibly 25ft far north, for late Friday into Saturday.  Powerful storm in the central Pacific with hurricane force winds directed at Nor Cal, and storm movement in our general direction - all adds up to massive size surf.  Most places won't handle that size in any sort of manner.  Even south facing spots will be fairly large.  One more rain event on Friday and then we dry out for the weekend and perhaps a few days into next week and beyond.  Could be back to a wet pattern after Christmas.  Swell stays elevated the next two days and then goes huge late Friday.  Cya in the water.

Mid December - solid swell continues

El Nino continúes to flex the muscle and bring us drought busting storms.  Next rain event due in here tomorrow night through Monday.  Then a break, then another storm Tues/Wed and possibly a third storm late next week.  It's good.  Long term models hinting at high pressure Christmas week which would be a nice break.  Will see if that comes to pass.  Look for surf to stay in the double overhead range at spots like Ocean Beach through all of next week.  Biggest day looks to be next Monday and Tuesday with deep water heights 10-15ft on Monday - 12-15 ft on Tuesday.  Mostly West/Northwest swell from 270-300 degrees.  Winds will be south to southeast as fronts approach, perhaps turning east to northeast (or light and variable) as fronts pass.  So know your spots and you'll have plenty to ride.  Water temps continue to hover high 50s to 60 degrees - highly unusual for December - but typical of El Nino.  That's also contributing to storms gaining strength just before they come ashore.  Warmer water equals more energy and higher rain rates.  Cya in the water.

December

Drought busting storms continue the assault on CA - no end in sight for the week ahead with perhaps the strongest storm of the season so far - due in here Wednesday to Friday with heavy rain, winds forecast in the 50kt range and gigantic storm surf by week's end - deepwater heights pushing 20 feet by Friday.  Fairly large surf all week, just check the winds.  For you regular followers of Wasabi you'll notice my reports have been less frequent this season.  Work and life is very busy for me so I've been focused on a lot of things.  I will try and update when I can.  In the meantime - the links all work and that's always been the best part of this blog I think as it is.  I'm updating and changing them from time to time as i find more sites with information useful for those of us that surf this part of the CA Coast.  Cya in the water.

Wasabi Update

Large northwest swell due to run at the Coast later today through tomorrow - pushing deep water heights back up to the 8-10 ft range.  Winds will switch to northwest behind the front later today.  First way up north, then down through the Bay Area.  Surf will stay elevated through next Wednesday - with the potential for very good conditions starting tomorrow with offshore winds each morning and surf staying in that 8-10 ft range.  HIgh pressure building into the Great Basin late tonight.  Next chance of rain looks like late next weekend.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Long period northwest swell began filling in late last night - Pt Reyes showing 4.9 ft at 17 from 300+.  This was generated by former Typhoon Nuri - now affecting the Central US with snow, high winds and frigid Arctic temps (1 degree in Denver this am).  This super storm, which recorded the lowest barometric pressure ever in the Bering Sea has been on quite a journey for the past week.  Remnants of Nuri will actually bring us rain tonight and tomorrow as part of that storm reformed in the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds are very light northwest right now but will turn southerly later today in front of this system.  Look for the Nuri swell to fade some on Thursday and then a new Gulf swell fills in Friday with deep water heights 7ft at 14 sec from 285.  That swell will drop some on Saturday, then head back up again on Sunday.  So plenty of swell for the next five days.  Winds will be a combination of light northwest to south/southwest before and after front passages.  Might have another shot of rain late in the weekend and then a major wet pattern change forecast for next week with soaking rains for all of CA.  Check the winds, know your spots.  It's Fall in Nor Cal.  Plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.

November

Large northwest swell peaking today - 10-12ft at 14-16 seconds from 290 +.  Winds are shredding things as the latest storm to bring rain to Central and Northern California has moved off to the east.  Look for high pressure to be in control thru most of next week - chance of rain far north by next weekend.  Seas will stay elevated thru Wednesday - 6-8 ft 11-12 seconds from late Sunday on.  Winds forecast to be north to northwest - much lighter by Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of light to offshore flow both those mornings.  Check the winds - plenty of swell.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Large long period northwesterly swell is filling in this afternoon - right now 10-12 ft deepwater - at 17 sec from 285.  Swell will peak overnight and remain large tomorrow.  Winds are light right now but picking up from the northwest as the weak front that gave us some additional rain has pushed through.  Look for a break in the weather the next few days and then a renewed chance of rain about Thursday lasting until Saturday.  Better chance of rain in the North Bay.  Swell to stay elevated most of the week ahead as the North Pacific remains very active pumping out weather and swell for the remainder of the period.  Winds are going to be highly variable - s to sw when fronts come ashore, changing to west or northwest with each passage.  Very active October - so stay tuned.  Cya in the water.

Some rain, more swell

A series of Pacific Weather Systems set to impact our Coast starting today - south to southwest winds will be up - with another solid west/northwest swell lining up for Wednesday and Thursday - pushing deepwater heights back up in the 8-12 ft range Wed - 10-15ft Thursday - biggest north of the Bay Area.    Another round of shorter period west swell due in for the weekend - which will push heights back into the 6-10ft range on Saturday, easing some on Sunday.  Light rain tonight - then a break - next chance of rain comes in Friday and then again next Monday.  So we're in an unsettled pattern for the next five days at least.  Winds will vary based on incoming fronts - s/se winds to start, shift to north/northwest after front passage.  Cleanest day of the week looks like maybe Thursday morning.  But with these patterns - always worth checking the winds each day.  Plenty of swell in the water that's for sure.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

SE swell from Hurricane Simon in the water at 2ft 11-12 sec from 160.  Most spots will not see this energy.  Small northwest swell at 2-3 ft at 12 seconds - just a degree up above windswell.  Long period northwest swell should start to show far north Thursday night - 3-5ft at 19 seconds, followed by a larger swell this weekend which will push deepwater heights back up into the 10-13ft range.  Northwest winds are forecast to increase towards week's end, while also turning offshore inland.  So morning sessions might see good wind conditions from Friday through Sunday.  Certainly check the winds and know your spots.  Pattern begins to break down middle of next week as the storm door looks like it might open and bring badly needed precip back to the region.  Cya in the water.

Hurricane Simon & Updated Forecast

Extreme angle SE swell from Hurricane Simon is in So Cal waters this am and moving north.  Angle of approach is 155-165 so it will miss most spots up here - except those with the best window to that swell direction.  Swell that does show will begin late tonight into tomorrow and fade late Wednesday.

New pulse of west/northwest windswell due Thursday/Friday (280-300) which will be good chest - head high + surf at winter breaks in the Bay Area.  Larger north.   Larger west/northwest ground swell (290-305) due to show this coming Friday, lasting thru next weekend and into the following week.

Winds look light northwest early in the week - stronger nw winds due from Wednesday thru Friday.  Forecast calls for another offshore wind event by next weekend - but not as strong or hot as this past event.

**Scripps Deepwater/Pt Reyes buoy has been offline since the 3rd.  Hopefully they will get that resolved today.

cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - First offshore event of the season

Pattern change starting late Wednesday on - high pressure is going to set up in the Great Basin and bring our first offshore wind event of early Fall.  Windswell primary source of waves along with a small pulse of mid period northwest swell thru Wednesday - good for chest/head high waves - bigger at top winter breaks.  Wont probably see the affects of the offshore push until Thursday.  Towards the weekend we will see another pulse of long period northwest swell and a decent shot of southwest groundswell (200-240) building Friday and lasting thru the weekend.  Should be pretty nice conditions from Friday thru Sunday.  cya in the water.

Happy Autumn - First big northwest swell of the season…..

730pm tonight is the Autumn Equinox.

First large northwest swell will start to impact our Coast mid week - with forecasted deepwater heights 10-15ft.  This is due to a large, complex storm system out in the Gulf, which unfortunately will probably come ashore around the same time.  Rain is in the forecast - Wednesday, Thursday, possibly into Friday.  Winds will be south/southwest during as the front comes ashore, probably turn northwest behind and i'll be looking for any sign of an offshore wind event next weekend.  Check the winds this week - might be a few moments - plenty of swell in the water from mid week on.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Rain showers have ended across the region as an early season storm dropped some badly needed rain around the area.  Looks like we could see more rain mid/late next week as the N Pac is very active - fueled in part by warm water and energy around the Pacific Basin.  The solid southwest swell is winding down some tonight - but still decent with deepwater heights at 3-4 ft from 17 seconds.  Northwest swell is winding down as well - 4-5 ft at 11 seconds.  Look for the southwest to fade more Friday - with left over northwest windswell.  By late Saturday, a larger pulse of northwest swell is due to hit - pushing surf heights back in the head to overhead range thru Sunday.  Winds will highly variable the next few days - lightest early.  Doesn't look like any huge blow out but expect stronger winds each afternoon.  Plenty of surf on tap late Saturday thru Sunday.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast -

Good run of southern hemi swells and WNW swells this coming week.  Rain chances return to the region (from Sonoma, north) Wednesday into Thursday.  Possible swell from Hurricane Odile could hit next weekend if the track takes it up Baja and into our swell window mid week.  This would be a south/southeast swell with a pretty steep approach.

SW/SWW swell will develop tonight and stick around thru Wednesday - (195-220) - good for head high and better sets at south facing breaks.

New WNW swell shows Tuesday - (290-300) good for chest/head high waves at winter breaks.  Another WNW swell will come in late this week.  More on that to come.  The N Pac is getting active.

Winds this coming week look highly variable.  W to SW to NW - strongest NW winds next Friday.  Best bet is to check it - know your spots and wind direction and you'll find something to ride.  Should be plenty of swell in the water from Tuesday on.

Cya in the water.

4 ft at 17 from 300

First small northwest swell of the Fall hitting this am.  Mixing in with a long period southwest.  Cross up should be good at certain breaks.  Winds are light and forecast to stay pretty light - especially mornings as a thermal low sits right over California.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - N Pac Wakes…..

Solid SW swell in the water - deep water showing 2ft at 20 from 200.  Decent NW windswell still around too at 5ft at 10-11 from 300+.  Issue is the south winds - eddy off the coast continues to spin fog and wind making a mess of things.  Will be hard to find some place clean to ride today as a result.  SW swell will peak over the weekend with possible head high and bigger waves at summer stand outs.  Winds will remain onshore - lightest for AM sessions.  By the middle of next week we will see our first small pulse of the season - probably run from around the 10th to the 15th - 290-300 degrees with deepwater 2-4 ft.  We may see the wind pattern shift by the start of next week - but only to more of a light northwest flow - no offshore events forecast yet.  Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER!

Happy Labor Day and welcome to the 2014/2015 Fall/Winter surfing season on the Central and Northern California Coast.  You made it through another summer.  Cya in the water.

Marie Rocks, More Southwest Swell to continue

A summer swell for the ages - that's been the tale of Marie.  Reports up and down the CA Coast of point breaks, nooks, crannies that rarely roar to life in the winter, let alone summer, but that's what you get with a large hurricane swell directed well at CA.  Decent size continues today, will fade some into the weekend.  Still seeing 4-6 ft 12-13 sec from 160-180 - swell is turning more SW.  We will have a new southwest swell join the party over the weekend - from around 215, much smaller than the Marie swell with deepwater probably in the 2-3ft range.  Then, looks like we will see a bigger southwest swell move in during the middle of next week (Sep 4-5) with possible deepwater heights again of 4 ft.  17-19 seconds from 201-215.  All signs now continue to indicate we will have some form of El Nino this winter - the strength of which is still tbd.  More on that as we move into Fall.  Sep 1 marks the start of the Fall/Winter Season in Nor Cal.  You've made it through another summer.  Cya in the water.

Hurricane Marie

All eyes on Hurricane Marie tonight - a Category 5 - at present 500 miles south of the tip of Baja.  Winds are 120 kt with gusts to 140kt.  Marie is generating seas as high as 48ft.  Right now the storm is moving to the northwest and should send huge surf to So Cal beaches starting late tomorrow and a very powerful southerly swell for us mid week.   We've had swell from TS Lowell and Karina since mid week - and that's been in the 3-4 ft range deep water.  Expect the swell from Marie to be larger.  Right now look for swell to build late Wednesday and last through the upcoming weekend.  Starting out south/southeast 170-180 - then late in the week switching more south/southwest - 180-210.  Winds look fairly light most of the week - from the west and northwest - perhaps a touch more northwest wind Wed to Fri.  Cya in the water.

Tropical Swell for the weekend

TS storms Lowell and Karina are in the Nor Cal swell window and you can expect to see swell move in tomorrow from Lowell (180 degrees) with more southwest swell (180-210) from Karina later in the weekend.  The East Pac is very active with another system due to become a TS in the next 48 hours.  We should see waist to shoulder high surf with some bigger sets at spots with good southerly exposure. Fog and onshore winds remain - probably lightest in the mornings.  A storm system diving into the Great Basin over the weekend could bring some offshore winds to the far North Bay - but probably not enough at the surface to mix things out.  This pattern of tropical systems is a strong indication of how warm the ocean is throughout the Pacific Basin.  If both systems re curve to the northeast and link up with the westerly jet stream - we would see some enhancement and swell development in the Gulf later next week.  The energy is out there - now just really waiting on Fall to kick in.  Cya in the water.

4.5 ft at 14 sec

Early season northwest swell arrived last night - deep water showing 4-5 ft with periods 14 sec.  Winds are actually a bit east/offshore at some spots this morning.  Nice warm up for September.  cya in the water.

Early Signs…..

Signs of the coming season ahead this week.  Early season storm in the Gulf of Alaska has sent off a pulse (285-310) which is due to show Tuesday AM far North and Bay Area Tuesday PM (largest late in the day).  Probably good for chest high waves, maybe some bigger sets at breaks with a good window to the west/northwest.  Biggest waves found far north.  Swell should peak on Wednesday and then fade out.  NW windswell will be in the water the entire time so don't expect super clean conditions.  Fog, onshore winds remain as well with low pressure right off the coast increasing the depth of the marine layer.  Cya in the water.

August Looms - El Nino Update

August.  Transition month on the North Coast.  Buckeye trees are already turning and i actually saw a few local maples showing some very early color this morning as they give up on the dry summer and decide to toss in the towel with hopes for a wet Fall.

If you've been in the water lately, you've noticed how warm it is.  Unusually warm in fact this time of year.  The entire Pacific Basin remains much warmer than usual as our northwest wind machine has been very quiet.  This is a good thing, as high pressure, a dominant feature for the past three years in the Eastern Pacific is not strong.  Hoping that it doesn't regain momentum as we head into September so we can get some early storm development.  The book on this years El Nino is still being written.  For sure it doesn't look like a big event, could even end up a very non event - but everything is in far better shape than in anytime over the past three years.  Another month or two - and we will have a handle on the cards we will be dealt for the Fall/Winter Season.

In the meantime, windswell remains primary wave source with some signs of life down under for some new south/southwest swells as we move into August.  North Pacific still fairly active for late July, but not much swell pointed our way yet.  Cya in the water.

JULY - Dog Days

Hope you got some of that good south swell action over the past few days.  Certainly were some moments in the water at the right spots.  Back to dribble today and probably for the rest of the week with onshore winds and windswell the rule.  Look for another smaller run of southwest swell towards the middle of the month.  North Pacific still remains fairly active for summer - and predictions of El Nino remain as water temps continue to remain warmer than normal.  Next month or two is critical to see if we will actually go into a new El Nino event for the fall/winter.  Next post in August - September 1 is getting closer each day!  cya in the water.

Waves - Rare off season swell

Buoys are 10-14 ft at 12-14 seconds from 290 plus this am - quite a surprise as this swell came in much bigger than models indicated a week ago.  Mixing in with a decent southwest swell (for around these parts) - so you might find something to ride today if you know where to look.  Winds not ideal and won't be for most spots.  Pushing into July - only two months to go until Fall.  The North Pacific has been far more active than usual this summer - which you can attribute to the warming Pacific.  Hopefully this trend continues for the next 45-60 days which will give us a pretty good indication of how strong this potential El Nino event is actually going to be.  Cya in the water.

JUNE

Blah.  That's all I can say about June right now.  If you have the time - travel someplace warm.  Talk to you in July.

Hurricane Amanda - Happy Memorial Day

Sunday morning.  The first hurricane of the season is firing up in the East Pacific.  Hurricane Amanda is the second strongest system on record (behind Adolph in 2011) with sustained winds at 140kts.  Could be a harbinger of things to come as El Nino continues to show signs of intensification in the Pacific Basin with warm water throughout.  The warm water exception of course is along our coast - where northwest winds have been howling offshore and the water is a balmy 47-50 degrees from SF north.  As for surf - north windswell and background sw swell the rule for the weekend.  Look for a stronger pulse of sw swell to come in next week.  Winds will remain from the northwest and you'll have to pick and choose your sessions.  I'll continue to provide spotty surf forecasts and updates on El Nino through the end of August.  Starting September 1, I will return to more regular updates.  Cya in the water.

MAY

Hope you got some surf this past week - we certainly had some nice conditions for late April.  Winds are cranking back up again and we will continue to see small/medium sized northwest swell and windswell through the period.  Conditions will be cleanest at breaks sheltered from the wind.  Nothing that exciting from the southern hemi - just background swell for the coming week.  Small chance of rain Monday, but primarily for the North Bay.  Cya in the water.

MID APRIL UPDATE

Spring.  Mostly onshore winds and fog already the rule, sheltered spots will be the most favorable for riding waves - but you'll always find windows at other breaks as high pressure ebbs and flows around the region.  We do have a strong late season storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska and that will send a good size swell train our way late Sunday into Monday/Tuesday.  Swell will peak Monday with deep water surf heights forecast in the 6-10ft range - from 280-310.  Good for double overhead ++ surf at north facing breaks.  Chance of rain Monday and Tuesday.  No real clean wind forecast for the next week.  WNW winds the rule.  There's a lot of talk about El Nino coming - even the tools in the main stream are talking about a Super Nino - but you have to discount what they say since they know very little about weather.  That said - water temps are much warmer across the Pacific Basin.  We certainly appear to be transitioning to an El Nino pattern.  The next two months will be critical to give us an indication of just how strong this will be.  If we do push into an El Nino - looking for stronger south swells, more activity in the East Pacific/Mexico for hurricanes and TS's.  Then, next Fall, we would likely see an increase in North/West Pacific storm/swell activity.  It would be nice to have a strong summer of south swells - just have to wait and see what develops.  Cya in the water.

APRIL -

Orion setting early in the western sky is always a sign the seasons are changing.  It's April, and by all accounts by now we're usually strafed by northwest winds and cold water - but so far this spring, knock wood, water temps aren't too bad.  And we've been blessed with small, but fairly consistent swells from the Gulf of Alaska.  That should continue through the weekend.  We also have a small run of back to back southwest swells from down under as the South Pacific begins to stir.  Weak storm tonight will briefly shift winds to the south and then strong to the northwest late Friday and Saturday before easing up early next week.  Look for deepwater swell from 270-305 at 4-7 ft through next Tuesday.  Might see light AM winds for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Stuff to ride, keep an eye on the winds and know your spots.  Southwest swell will be from 190-220 through next Thursday.  Cya in the water.

Mid March - Swell to continue

Solid WNW swell in the water today through early week.  Deepwater 8-12 ft at 14-17 sec from 290-300.  Swell will peak overnight and be quite solid tomorrow.  Look for decent size surf most of the week - just keep an eye on the winds.  Mostly N to NW wind flow predicted.  Cya in the water.

March

March 1 is usually the official end to the Fall/Winter season in Nor Cal as conditions and the weather transition over to something a bit less desirable  - like cold water and northwest winds.  This week - we will have plenty of overhead swell right through next weekend - but because of ongoing storms most spots will be torn up due to south or southwest winds.  Later in the week - winds will switch to northwest - probably Thursday.  So, know your spots and keep an eye on the winds and you'll find something to ride.  Reports will be a bit less frequent as we move into Spring - but i will keep an eye on things and provide updates as needed.  Cya in the water.

Lighter winds for the weekend - storms next week to close February

Winds are easing up and offshore at area beaches this morning.  Swell is still decent size  7-8 ft 11-12 seconds from 285 plus.  Swell will fade throughout the day. Saturday will featuring smaller surf in the morning and then an increase in size as a new WNW swell moves in.  This swell will stick around Sunday - 3-5ft deepwater.  Should see good morning/offshore winds Saturday and Sunday.  Next week the storm door opens again as a series of strong systems will impact the region from Wednesday through the following weekend bringing rain and strong south winds.  When it's all done we will be into the month of March and then the northwest wind machine will start to ramp up.   So get on it.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - Northwest Winds

Northwest winds will be the rule this week as high pressure sets up.  There will be plenty of swell in the water at times, but need to find protection from the winds.  Models hint at another wet pattern change mid next week through the end of the month with rain/storms.  Then it will be March and we know what happens around here then.  Get what you can as i expect we're going to have a very windy spring around these parts.  Cya in the water.

Rain, mix of swells and wind to continue through the week

Next storm system due in tomorrow afternoon into Thursday.  Look for northwest winds changing over to south/southwest.  Dry on Friday, more rain Saturday and Sunday.  Nothing is really going to be very clean for the next 4-5 days - there will be swell from different sources - finding someplace clean to ride will be the key.  We need the rain so let it be so.   Keep an eye on the winds and buoys and you'll find some windows to ride.  Cya in the water.

Pattern to remain unsettled

Strong, compact storm dropped down along the coast yesterday bringing much needed rain to most of the area and higher amounts than forecast.  NE winds this morning - swell is 8-10ft with mixed periods from several sources.  We will remain in a more normal winter pattern this week - with more rain and cold temps forecast Wednesday and Thursday and then models forecast a very wet shift in the jet stream for next weekend.  Surf will stay on the smaller side most of the week - winds will be highly variable depending on the day.  Best bet is check it each morning and see if you can get some.  Cya in the water.

Winter returns (briefly) and conditions go south

Back to back weak storm systems moved through our region bringing some measurable rain and northwest winds.  What a distant memory now all those fine days earlier this month and in December yeah?  Don't look for things to improve much, northwest winds today and tomorrow.  On Sunday, another low pressure system will drop south along the coast bringing a threat of rain and light south winds.  Sunday morning might be ok - but far from super clean.  Small surf looks the rule with a bump up Sunday and Monday as a new WNW swell comes in.  Best breaks during these days might be a few feet overhead with the sets.  HIgh pressure builds back in next week, but not as strong as the drought high pressure of the best few months - models hint and another storm next weekend.  Winds next week look northwest - maybe some clean mornings.  More on that after the weekend.  Cya in the water.

Solid surf continues, pattern change in the weather next week

Solid deep water swell continues today - 5-8 ft from 275 + .  Winds are generally light right now as high clouds move overhead from a weak storm system moving in from the south.  Look for generally elevated surf through next Thursday - but our long run of offshore days looks like it will come to an end next week as a strong storm moves in from the Pacific and the blocking ridge of high pressure leaves the region - bringing us badly needed rain.  Right now rain could begin in the North Bay as early as Wednesday night and stick around through Friday.  You can look for south/southwest winds to pick up those days and then northwest blow behind the front.  Until then, plenty of surf on tap just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast late Thursday

Buoys north of Hawaii show the story - 26ft at 17 seconds.  The Islands will be massive later today.  Large surf continues for us and will get much bigger over the next few days as the swell from a massive low pressure circulation (a storm filling almost the entire North Pacific) begins to show late Thursday with 6-8 ft deepwater at 25 seconds.  Swell to increase Friday with long periods and size - 10-14 ft at 18 seconds - maxing out on Saturday at 15-18ft.  Not quite the mega swell models were forecasting a week or so ago - but should be the biggest surf we've seen this winter at most north facing/big water breaks.  Winds look tricky the next few days as an inside slider storm barrels into the Great Basin, then retrogrades towards the CA Coast.  This is going to trigger a strong southerly wind surge late Thursday into Friday.  Then we go back to a north to northwest wind event for the weekend.  Winds over the weekend may very well turn offshore for the mornings.  Could see some drizzle Thursday/Friday from this system - but not much precip expected.  CA remains locked under high pressure through the end of January.  Large storms west of the Dateline will continue to generate swell trains that impact the region.  But no weather will make it past Hawaii.  Cya in the water.

One more small fun day, then a 50 year swell???

Amazing winter conditions continue - offshore winds, day after day of rideable waves.  Friday will see the smallest day of surf for the next 7-10 - with shoulder to head high surf at north facing breaks.  A very potent run of storms north of Hawaii is kicking up swell that will begin to impact our region later in the day on Saturday and continue through all of next week.  Could see potentially extremely large surf around Jan 24-25 if conditions behave as models forecast.  So look for increasing surf late Saturday from 270-300 with double overhead sets expected by sunset.  Larger swell Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - in the 10-15ft range Sunday and then 8-12 ft through the week.  If the mega swell comes in it will show late next Thursday - be full force Friday with deepwater swell heights forecast at 20-30ft!!  This would be one for the ages if it materializes.  **I still think most of the models are too hot on this swell - but it's worth noting they've been pretty consistent for over a week now forecasting extremely large waves.  Should have a better handle on things by the middle of next week.  No end in sight to the offshore winds as summer time high pressure has the region in full lock down from rain and storms.  I can't emphasize enough how dire things are now for California.  We're breaking all sorts of records for lack of rainfall, snowfall, high temps and dry conditions and in many ways could be looking at a drought event never experienced.  So do you part - conserve water and tell family, friends, people you work with to do the same.  It could make a huge difference for all of us next summer.  Enjoy the surf, cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast tonight and tomorrow….

Very powerful winter storm in the northeast Gulf of AK - has whipped up a large swell train which will start to impact the coast tonight and last through Sunday afternoon.  Oregon Coastal buoys are starting to show deepwater in the 18ft range - expect 14-18ft deepwater swell north of Pt Reyes, 12-14ft to the south - with bigger sets and a bit unruly at times.  Period will be 15-16 seconds - angle 300 +.  Winds are going to be northwest tonight and north tomorrow.  Probably won't be very clean at anything west/north facing.  Look for elevated surf levels through most of next week with good conditions as wind turn offshore starting Monday and look to hold through next Thursday.  What little rain we managed to squeeze out today is it for us until the end of January.  Dry weather will dominate the region.  Great for surfers, bad if you're a fern.  Cya in the water.

Our long run of clean days over for now…..

Well, it had to happen, onshore winds have returned after what seems like a month of offshore and clean days.  Don't get too depressed, because it looks like we could see warm temps and offshore winds return next week - but in the short term - swell inbound with northwest winds.  Long period swell will start to build in later tonight (295 to 305) peaking over the weekend.  Looking for deepwater heights in the 6-10ft range from Friday to Sunday.  But winds will be an issue today, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, possibly cleaning up for light morning winds on Sunday.  Best chance of rain will occur Saturday as the tail end of a weather system brushes Nor Cal.  Beyond that, high pressure regains control and no rain is forecast through Jan 20th.  We're almost halfway through our rainy season now and most of the State finds itself in a severe water deficit.  Most areas 5-10% of normal.  We all need to conserve water and anyone reading this blog should tell a friend or two they know.  Most people aren't in tune with the weather like surfers and just think we're having a nice winter.  Well the sun is shining and it's all wonderful, but come July we will all be lucky to get a one minute shower.  Do your part and watch your water use.  Until then, plenty of swell, keep an eye on the winds if you know the coast you'll find spots to ride even during northwest wind events.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Fun size surf continues with very clean conditions.  New WNW swell will fill in late today and waves should be a couple feet overhead on Tuesday at winter breaks.  Smaller Wednesday, swell comes back up late Thursday into Friday and next weekend should feature large surf with 8-12ft of deepwater forecast from a storm whipping up a swell train in the West Pacific.   Winds look good through about Wednesday then we might see an increase in northwest wind flow through the weekend as a few systems brush past us to the north and the high pressure gradient increases down the coast.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Great run of good surf will continue for the rest of the holiday week.  A touch smaller than our past two swell events, but still head to overhead surf at north facing/winter breaks through Sunday.  Winds look decent as well.

Note - NOR CAL Buoy link appears to be offline - i'm sure the fine people in La Jolla will fix when they get back from holiday.

Cya in the water and Happy New Year.