UPDATED FORECAST 10-14 - XL SWELL INBOUND

 Tracking a large northwest swell for tomorrow - peaked at the Papa Buoy around 12-13 ft @15-16 seconds early this morning.   Long period forerunners hitting Cape Mendo Buoy now with 17sec energy as well as early signals at Pt Arena.   Swell fills in tonight and will be solid to start the morning tomorrow most likely 8-10ft at 15 seconds.  Swell angle 298-302 degrees.   Low pressure poised to hit the Northwest and drag a cold front through CA Tuesday night through Thursday - best chances for rain north of Sonoma County again.  High pressure builds in strongly as that storm plows into the Great Basin setting up a strong offshore wind event - typical of our Fall - into the weekend with north winds and a big jump in the northwest wind swell - peaking around 10ft @10 seconds Thursday into Saturday.   Fall is here.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-8 - N PAC WAKING UP

 Mid period northwest swell in the water today after long period forerunners came in yesterday afternoon. Swell is 7@14 seconds from 310 - bigger north of Bodega Bay.   Swell fades late, will be replaced by mid size wind swell for the middle of the week and then another moderate size northwest swell rolls in for the weekend with a chance for rain Friday night/Saturday morning.  Best chance of rain Bay Area north, with some rain expected from Western Sonoma County to the CA/OR border.  October heat wave is over and to be replaced by temps that feel more like fall.   Looking ahead to the weekend - potential for a decent size late season south looking more likely and further out, good pulse of northwest swell potentially for next week.   Jet stream is active and steaming off of Japan in the Gulf of Alaska, just need to get some troughs moving in that energy to create more swell.   The pattern is decent however.   Winds don't look too bad the rest of the week - typical for October.  Cya in the water.  

XL Swell North, Smaller South

Large swell continues to impact spots north of Bodega Bay, buoys reading 12-13ft@11-13 seconds from around 310,  It looks like most forecasts have missed how big this swell would be.  It's actually two swells combining, a new Gulf Swell at around 6 ft@12 seconds and bigger wind swell.   Surf looks to stay on the larger side through the weekend and into early next week.  Winds are not ideal, mix of south to southwest wind for Bay Area and north to northwest wind Jenner to Cape Mendocino.  High pressure will be the dominant weather system for the next week - with much warmer temps again and possible offshore winds early next week.   Out in the Pacific, season is in swing with weather systems coming across the upper latitudes.   We remain at the tail end of our dry season but that will change later in October.  Plenty to ride the next few days, just keep an eye on the winds.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAT 9-22, N PAC TO STIR

Good size wind swell in the water today hitting best SF north - northern buoys showing this energy well at around 8-10ft @10-11 seconds, steep angle, 315 plus.   Winds are light, southerly for the majority of the central and northern coast.  We have our first decent longer period swell coming in mid week - should peak around 7-8ft@14 seconds.   This is from a gale moving through the Northern Gulf of Alaska.   Swell will build in Tuesday night, peak Wednesday and slow fade Thursday.  Biggest waves SF to the north.  Winds not bad, as we would expect in late September, should remain fairly light.  Until that swell rolls in, wind swell will hang on for at least another day.    Storm track looks to remain active, but displaced up in the N Pac as high pressure dome sits off and over the West Coast for a few more days.   The pattern is looking better for late September.   For those up early, Orion, the winter constellation, is up in the morning sky now around 5am, always a great sign fall is arriving and will continue to be higher in the sky, earlier each night, as we move into October and beyond.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-14, WAITING ON FALL

Not much going on the next 7-10 days - mostly fluctuations of wind swell from the north and minor south and southwest swells hovering around 1-3ft (deepwater).   Models hinting at the potential for more northwest swell around mid month, so hang in there.   Until then, get what you can!  Cya in the water.