UPDATED FORECAST 11-17 - BIG AND STORMY, FIRST AR OF THE SEASON

 Gonna be big, ugly, windy and messy for the coming week as the first atmospheric river event of the winter season comes ashore late Tuesday night lasting until next weekend.   Lots of rain forecast especially north of the Bay Area - but everyone is going to get in on the action.  Surf wise - just plain big with a mix of large SW swells (storm swell) and NW swells through the week.  I    dunno, maybe get some work done, start your holiday shopping - sure there will be some spots that can harness the energy - but it won't be pretty for the most part.  Cya in the water. 

GOING LARGE AND STORMY, UPDATED FORECAST 11-10

 Storm door to open this week with multiple fronts coming through starting tonight and lasting through next weekend.  As a result of all this activity, multiple, large swell trains will be moving in.   First XL swell builds in overnight on Monday - hitting 15ft@16 seconds for Tuesday.  After that it will be hard to distinguish each swell event - just safe to say that it won't go below 14-15ft from Tuesday through Thursday night!   Swell direction for most of the week will be 292 to 307 degrees.  Swell will be biggest from SF north.    Winds will be variable - as fronts come onshore, south wind and as they pass by, northwest flow behind.   On and off rain through Thursday.   Going to look and feel much more like fall for the coming week!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-1 - LARGE OUT THERE

 Yesterday morning the PAPA Buoy peaked with a reading of 20ft@17 seconds - biggest so far in this early season of north swells.  This morning, Pt Arena showing 19ft@16 seconds.   A very large, N Pacific Low has occupied the Northeastern Pacific for a few days now and will continue to send large waves to the West Coast.   Very low pressure combined with strong winds - all of it moving in our direction creates a very dynamic wave scape in the ocean.  Ongoing rain and mountain snow for most of N Cal through at least Saturday, then the skies clear, winds turn more offshore and we dry out.   Winds will really start to nuke on Sunday and then we will also have a very large steep angled north wind swell in the water too.   So if you like big, next few days for you.   Otherwise, find spots that are sheltered from all this massive energy and you'll probably score.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-23

 Long period late season south swell filling in along the coast this morning - deepwater swell running around 3ft@18 second from around 180.  Swell will gradually start to fade tomorrow but stick around until Saturday - when energy from the Northwest takes over again with a new West swell filling in during the day at 8ft@12 seconds.   Winds are forecast to go off shore the next few days - then light south by Saturday as a weak storm system moves in on the stubborn high pressure ridge over the weekend.   Conditions may then give way next week to more unsettled conditions with low pressure dropping down along the West Coast.    Until then, decent conditions with swells from the south and north - fall in CA.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 10-14 - XL SWELL INBOUND

 Tracking a large northwest swell for tomorrow - peaked at the Papa Buoy around 12-13 ft @15-16 seconds early this morning.   Long period forerunners hitting Cape Mendo Buoy now with 17sec energy as well as early signals at Pt Arena.   Swell fills in tonight and will be solid to start the morning tomorrow most likely 8-10ft at 15 seconds.  Swell angle 298-302 degrees.   Low pressure poised to hit the Northwest and drag a cold front through CA Tuesday night through Thursday - best chances for rain north of Sonoma County again.  High pressure builds in strongly as that storm plows into the Great Basin setting up a strong offshore wind event - typical of our Fall - into the weekend with north winds and a big jump in the northwest wind swell - peaking around 10ft @10 seconds Thursday into Saturday.   Fall is here.  Cya in the water.