UPDATED FORECAST 10-26, KELVIN WAVE, WATER TEMPS

 If you've been in the water the past few days you have no doubt noticed how warm temps have become.  This is due to the Kelvin Wave that has finally made its way all the way up the California Coast.  This is a massive push of warm water due to El Niño, which also brings with it higher water levels/tides, which we've already been experiencing since mid summer.  Anomalies over 1ft at every tide cycle, even higher at times.  These elevated water levels have caused heavy flooding in So Cal already and will start to impact the entire region as we head more into fall and the first real winter storms come ashore.  The potential combination of King Tides in Dec/Jan, along with a large swell, storm surge and already higher than normal water levels will have a big impact on cities and infrastructure near the coast.  Speaking of storms, so where are they?   As has been forecast, this El Niño for the N Pac will most likely get going in earnest starting in December.  But we do have a potential early season storm cycle brewing for the first week of November as it does look like we are finally going to see some energy develop bringing rain and mountain snow to much of CA, but most of the focus looks to be on Central/So Cal.   It's a week out, so things will come into better view in the next few days.  In the meantime - we still have pulses of background south swells coming in around 2ft along with background north wind swell of a similar size.  We do have a north swell headed our way from a storm that is up by the Kuril Islands for mid week along with a mother swell from a storm in the Central Pacific.  Deepwater swell heights on both forecast around 3ft@14 seconds - but may come in larger than forecast.   Kuril swell is coming from 304 degrees and the C Pac swell from around 208 degrees.  Lighter north to northwest winds, potentially off shore at times through the week.   We could start to see some stronger south winds next week if the pattern changes to the wetter scenario.  Interesting times ahead for sure, cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-19 - N PAC STIRS MORE

 Things slowly coming online as we head into November.  Northwest Gulf swell in the water today - biggest north - 8-9@13 seconds from 300 plus.  Smaller SF south.   We also have a decent south swell in the water - around 2.8ft@17 from 185.  NW swell will increase on Tuesday 9-10ft@13 seconds, source of this is a strong area of low pressure from last week in the Gulf that is slowly moving down the West Coast today through Thursday.  This low will also bring a chance of rain on and off, but most noticeable- the much cooler temps from last week.   Winds not bad the next few days - light northwest today, Turning southeast Tuesday and then back to the north and northeast for Wed/Thursday.  Decent south swell will remain in the background all week and the northwest swell will fluctuate between Gulf swells and local wind swell later in the week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-9 - GO SURF

 Combo of northwest swell, tropical swell and long period southwest swells in the water today with mostly light winds starting out the day.  The N Pac swell is around 4-7ft@13 sec from 306, fading from yesterday's peak.   Tropical swell is around 3ft@11 from 175 and the New Zealand Southwest is 2-3ft@15 sec from 210.  There will be another NZ swell running in over the weekend peaking at around 2.5ft@17 seconds on Sunday.   At the same time, extratropical swell from Typhoon Choi Wan, which raced up Japan last week and then came around in the westerly jet stream (peak seas were about 52ft) has sent some sideband energy our way for Saturday/Sunday/Monday/Tuesday.   Swell will build late in the day Sunday - forerunners 2-3ft@ 21-22 seconds from 300, peaking Monday at 2.7ft@17 seconds.   Waits will be long, size likely will be bigger than forecast when sets arrive - especially north of Bodega Bay.   Winds might be an issue this weekend as the heat dome is being replaced by low pressure diving out of BC, which will in turn ramp up the wind machine over the coastal regions and waters.   That is the only thing that might mess up a really good weekend of waves, a lot of big wind swell.   Either way, waves around, get out there and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-5

 Small Gulf of AK swell will roll in mid week - biggest north of Bodega.   Likely push 7@14 in the north, 3-5@14 SF south.  We will also have a New Zealand swell fill in around the same time mid week.  N Pac swell direction around 306 degrees, S Pac swell will be 210 degrees, 2@17 to start and drop to 15-16sec Thursday and beyond.  Will have another New Zealand swell build in Friday for the weekend.   Similar size to the first pulse.   Winds look pretty light for the most part all week.  Minor fluctuations.   Heat dome remains overhead until Thursday, then we cool down for the weekend as low pressure comes into the West.  TBD if we will see any rain from it, but the pattern will shift and push the heat out.  Tropics remain active and still waiting for the N Pac to come online.  It will get there eventually, just taking time.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-27 - Long Period NW tomorrow.......Along with more south.....

 Last week Typhoon Dujuan went extra-tropical (indicative of El Niño) off Japan, came across in the jet stream and created a small northwest swell that will begin to show Monday (far north) and slowly fill in along the Central CA Coast into mid week.  Should peak around 3-6 ft@17 seconds from 304 degrees.  Expect long waits between sets as the swell traveled a long way.   At the same time, more tropical swell from the two hurricanes spinning off Baja will make its way into the waters, probably peaking around 3-4 ft@13sec/190 deg.  That energy is already showing this morning in So Cal and will slowly migrate north through Sunday.   Beyond, northwest wind to retain control and small background south swells through the week.  The N Pac branch of the jet stream is very active and just looking for the first really strong low pressure system to sink into the Gulf and pump out a significant swell.  It's coming.......Cya in the water.