UPDATED FORECAST 12-17 - Brief break, then stormy, XL Surf

 New, large northwest swell filled in overnight - buoys showing 9@17 seconds around SF, 12 @17 much further north (swell angle 296 to 300).   Winds are very light out of the south.  It's going to stay large most of the week (above 9-10 ft) and then going XL this weekend when a long period, powerful northwest swell comes in around 17ft@17 seconds.   This is a result of Gulf Low just getting going which is going to create some of the biggest buoy reads in the N Pac we've seen in a long while.   If the models are accurate - forecasting swells around 60ft! out in the N Pac when the storm is at it's peak.  It's a monster size storm.   Rain stays away until late in the week and then CA looks to get another good pounding through next weekend with a possible atmospheric river set up - especially Bay Area to the north.  Winds will be good for the next few days and then turn strongly south for the duration of the next storm event.   Cya in the water.  

Updated Forecast 12-6

High pressure continues to dominate the region leaving us high and dry.  Changes on the horizon for far nor cal this weekend and then for everyone else by next weekend.   Rainy pattern will return by mid month.  Tsunami madness/alerts yesterday after the quake - which were warranted given the size of the quake and proximity to our Coast.  Had that been a quake with vertical motion as opposed to horizontal motion (it was on a strike/slip fault) - a tsunami would have most certainly been generated.    I  see people bitching about all the warnings etc today online and elsewhere - the system did was it is supposed to do.  But by all means next time we have a big quake in the ocean go stand on the beach.   As for the surf - mid period northwest swell in the water this morning - 6-7@13 seconds.  Swell builds Sunday as a new, bigger northwest swell comes in at 11@14 seconds - staying big Monday into Monday night - gradual fade into Tuesday but still fun 7@14.   Winds ramp up a bit through Sunday then go back to light and variable to start next week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING WEEK

 Storm door is closing today and we look to stay dry for a while as high pressure sets up.  Long term models are saying no rain until at least 2nd wk of December - maybe longer.  The good news, many locations north of SF received about 300-400% of normal rainfall for the date in the past week.   Surf wise, a rare, off season, long period south is due to come in mid week - forerunners overnight tonight.  Look for the swell to peak in the 2-4 ft range at 19seconds from 187 degrees.   Swell will gradually fade into Friday.   Get what you can as things stay pretty quiet after that with the storm machine shut down in the N Pac as the inactive phase of the MJO (dry air) builds and holds.   Winds look really nice the rest of the week - light and variable.  Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-17 - BIG AND STORMY, FIRST AR OF THE SEASON

 Gonna be big, ugly, windy and messy for the coming week as the first atmospheric river event of the winter season comes ashore late Tuesday night lasting until next weekend.   Lots of rain forecast especially north of the Bay Area - but everyone is going to get in on the action.  Surf wise - just plain big with a mix of large SW swells (storm swell) and NW swells through the week.  I    dunno, maybe get some work done, start your holiday shopping - sure there will be some spots that can harness the energy - but it won't be pretty for the most part.  Cya in the water. 

GOING LARGE AND STORMY, UPDATED FORECAST 11-10

 Storm door to open this week with multiple fronts coming through starting tonight and lasting through next weekend.  As a result of all this activity, multiple, large swell trains will be moving in.   First XL swell builds in overnight on Monday - hitting 15ft@16 seconds for Tuesday.  After that it will be hard to distinguish each swell event - just safe to say that it won't go below 14-15ft from Tuesday through Thursday night!   Swell direction for most of the week will be 292 to 307 degrees.  Swell will be biggest from SF north.    Winds will be variable - as fronts come onshore, south wind and as they pass by, northwest flow behind.   On and off rain through Thursday.   Going to look and feel much more like fall for the coming week!  Cya in the water.