UPDATED FORECAST 1-14-25

 First off, LA made it through another Santa Ana wind event overnight, but a few more wind events to come this week for them.  Nothing as strong as last week.  Cali, in fact the entire West Coast is high and dry and looks to stay that way now through the end of January.  Blocking high pressure is the culprit- with two variations called a Rex Block and Omega Block trading places - both deal with the placement of high pressure and low pressure - and in our case neither are good - it stops storm production and swell production because the jet stream flow remains far to our north.   With this high pressure ridge over us and the northeast Pacific - nothing is going to break through for a while.   Add La Niña flexing now, mid winter, doesn't bode well for LA in particular.    They could very well not get much rain down there the rest of the winter.   Nor Cal has faired better with early seasons rains - 25-40 inches of rain north of SF to date for most places - but things will start to dry out later this month.  Surf wise - we do have swell as the West Pacific is still churning out storms - mid size/mid period stuff most of this week - deepwater heights 6-8ft 13-14 seconds - followed by an increase in larger north wind swell when winds pick up again Friday into the weekend.  Water and air temps are cool to cold - SF water around 53 - further north - 49-50.   Offshore winds for the most part in the mornings - so some ideal conditions.   Not seeing any change in the pattern now through Jan 26.   Beyond that hopefully the pattern will break down and give us something that looks like winter again.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 1-8-25

 First off - weather and fire update for our friends to the south.   Strong/damaging Santa Ana winds will continue through the day, turning more northeast overnight.   Jet stream winds right now are unfortunately blowing directly over So Cal exasperating the fire situation.   These winds are being driven by a low pressure system driving into the Great Basin, AZ New Mexico - with high pressure locked in to the West.  Some relief later in the week but it looks like the region can expect on and off Santa Ana winds through the weekend.   The worst winds now, through Thursday.  

For Central and Nor Cal - windy yes, but we've had rain unlike So Cal - so our fire situation isn't anything to be concerned about.   The dry pattern looks to remain in place through the middle of next week - some hint that the ridge will break down late next week and we might get back into a wetter pattern.   Surf wise, well it's been quite solid and remains so today with swell running about 9@15 north of Bodega Bay, 6-8ft Bay Area south.   Swell direction around 290-293.   Pretty much looking at similar size waves the rest of the week, but then getting larger into the weekend as the winds pick up offshore for Nor Cal and generate some larger, short period stuff.   Cya in the water.  

CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEARS FORECAST 12-24

 Yesterday was quite a spectacle from San Diego to Humboldt.   For sure some of the biggest waves I've seen in my neck of the woods - PA Buoy peaked around 25ft@17 seconds mid day.   Buoys up and down the coast recorded some of the biggest waves in a long time.   Swell is still 15ft plus today and looks to stay in that elevated range through the weekend.   Storms continue through Sunday.   So unless you have access to a place that is protected or live in So Cal - going to be hard to find clean, rideable surf.   If you like large surf - no problem.   Merry Christmas and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-17 - Brief break, then stormy, XL Surf

 New, large northwest swell filled in overnight - buoys showing 9@17 seconds around SF, 12 @17 much further north (swell angle 296 to 300).   Winds are very light out of the south.  It's going to stay large most of the week (above 9-10 ft) and then going XL this weekend when a long period, powerful northwest swell comes in around 17ft@17 seconds.   This is a result of Gulf Low just getting going which is going to create some of the biggest buoy reads in the N Pac we've seen in a long while.   If the models are accurate - forecasting swells around 60ft! out in the N Pac when the storm is at it's peak.  It's a monster size storm.   Rain stays away until late in the week and then CA looks to get another good pounding through next weekend with a possible atmospheric river set up - especially Bay Area to the north.  Winds will be good for the next few days and then turn strongly south for the duration of the next storm event.   Cya in the water.  

Updated Forecast 12-6

High pressure continues to dominate the region leaving us high and dry.  Changes on the horizon for far nor cal this weekend and then for everyone else by next weekend.   Rainy pattern will return by mid month.  Tsunami madness/alerts yesterday after the quake - which were warranted given the size of the quake and proximity to our Coast.  Had that been a quake with vertical motion as opposed to horizontal motion (it was on a strike/slip fault) - a tsunami would have most certainly been generated.    I  see people bitching about all the warnings etc today online and elsewhere - the system did was it is supposed to do.  But by all means next time we have a big quake in the ocean go stand on the beach.   As for the surf - mid period northwest swell in the water this morning - 6-7@13 seconds.  Swell builds Sunday as a new, bigger northwest swell comes in at 11@14 seconds - staying big Monday into Monday night - gradual fade into Tuesday but still fun 7@14.   Winds ramp up a bit through Sunday then go back to light and variable to start next week.   Cya in the water.