Sunday, March 27, 2016

Updated Forecast 3-27

Water temps have tumbled to 51 from 56 deg last Thursday.  Result of 72 hours of howling northwest winds.  Ah, spring in Nor Cal.  Junky north wind swell the rule through mid week - then by late next week a new northwest swell will arrive along with a series of southwest swells that will get larger as we move into April.  Winds forecast to mellow some by next Thursday or so.  Next couple days will be good days to get stuff done.  Weather models are hinting at a slight chance of rain by next weekend - will see if that happens.  Cya in the water.

Monday, March 21, 2016

Northwest Winds to blow

The last storm in the recent series is moving through the Bay Area today with rain, wind and scattered thunderstorms.  Northwest swell is building at 10ft @17 from 300.  Swell will peak tonight and slowly fade tomorrow.  Swell will stay elevated from the northwest the remainder of the week - combination of northwest swell and windswell.  Deepwater heights to remain in the 9-12ft range.  Northwest winds will really ramp up blowing 15-25kts for the remainder of the week as high pressure takes control.   Spots protected from the winds should be fun.  Cya in the water.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

And Just Like That......

First day of Spring is this coming Saturday.  Strong storms of this past weekend already a distant memory as we are under warming high pressure with fairly light northwest winds for the next couple days.  North/West swell continues to drop, but still decent size this morning at 9ft @14 seconds from 300-310.  Swell will continue to fade into the weekend offering fun size surf with morning sessions probably featuring the best winds or places out of the northwest wind flow.  By the weekend, low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will push the high pressure off to the east - bringing us a chance of rain from Friday through Monday.  Far north will likely see rain as early as Saturday night - Bay Area by Sunday.  Not a big storm and part of the weekend might be rideable.  New swell will build in from the west for Saturday and Sunday - offering deepwater swell in the 6-8ft range.  Beyond that - high pressure regains control and it's starting to look like this El Nino might be on it's last legs with the signal fading in the West Pacific and the season transitioning to Spring.  Then the focus will turn to the long term - whether this will be a multi year El Nino event or a one and done - sending us back into La Nina.  Let's hope it's the former.  Cya in the water.

Friday, March 11, 2016

El Nino Rules

Heavy rain, strong south winds and large surf (even larger on Sunday) the rule through this weekend. There are a few spots on our Coast that will work if you know them - otherwise - everything else will be a total mess.  High pressure forecast to make a return next week and dry us out and hopefully give us a few clean days of surf.  Time to grab it when you can because the northwest wind machine could be lurking around the corner as we move towards April.  The South Pacific has already fired a southwest swell in our direction (lost under the dominant west energy) - so let's hope El Nino still has the legs to give us a good summer.  Cya in the water.

Thursday, March 3, 2016


If you like big surf, south winds blowing sideways - the next few days or longer will be for you.  The Pacific storm machine has set up again similar to what we saw in January - storms across the Dateline - with the first one impacting us today with mainly light rain and then the main event comes in late tomorrow on and off through Monday - with heaviest rain and wind SF north.  Large west swells will propagate through the waters for the next week as the ocean is quite agitated with all of the energy blowing from west to east.  So if you know those spots that like south winds and large swell - plenty to ride coming up.  Cya in the water.