Sunday, October 25, 2015

Updated Forecast/10-25

Interesting week of weather past, Patricia, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere (and a product of this year's El Nino) came ashore south of Puerto Vallarta with sustained winds of 200mph.  Higher gusts were recorded around 248mph while the system was still offshore.  Winds equivalent to an F4 tornado.  Because the storm came ashore between major population centers damage was extensive, but not catastrophic as forecast.  By now you probably also read about the cluster of large great whites sighted by the US Coast Guard between OB and Pacifica - fairly close to shore.  Interesting as well, perhaps related to the warm surface temps - doubt anyone knows for sure.  Uncle Whitey is out there.   For today, new good size WNW swell is filling in this morning and pushing surf heights back to double overhead range at top winter breaks with exposure to the swell direction.  Winds are light onshore.  Look for the swell to increase all day and peak tomorrow with deepwater swell in the 6-10ft range.  Lighter winds tomorrow morning.  The remains of Hurricane Olaf, now well north and east of Hawaii will get entrained by a strong Gulf of Alaska low over the next 24-48 hours.  The winds will increase over the open waters and send a good size swell our way mid week - with deep water heights back in the 6-10ft range on Wednesday and 8-12ft on Thursday.  Unfortunately, weather from this system may come ashore at the same time making a mess of things from a wind stand point.  Something to keep an eye on.  Surf will stay elevated into next weekend with a gradual improvement in the winds as high pressure regains control.  Plenty of size the next few days - check the winds.  Cya in the water.

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