Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Updated Forecast/El Nino Update

SSW swell holding steady today at around 3ft 17 seconds from 180.  Wind swell at 3 ft 9 seconds from 310 plus.  This SSW swell will hold thru the end of the week and fade out Friday.   WSW swell from former Hurricane Jimena is fading out today.  Winds near the coast are light but trending onshore and we may see an increase in the fog and wind over the next couple days as the pressure gradient begins to weaken just a tad.  Inland temps will continue hot to extreme so only relief will be near the coast.  On a larger scale, Hurricane Ignacio has turned extra tropical in the North Pacific and will send a shot of steep angled NW swell (300-320) that will build in Thursday (northern areas first) and spread south during the day Friday.  Should fade over the weekend.  Size wise, probably on par with the wind swell now in the water.  The Jetstream in the North Pacific is showing some signs of Fall - but nothing remarkable just yet.  What is more definite is the 2015/2016 El Nino event on track to rival the 82/83 and/or 97' Super Nino events with warm to very warm water throughout the Pacific Basin.  Experts feel this event may be closer to the 82/83 El Nino in that it's location (or focus) is much farther west in the Pacific.  What that means for us, storms form further out and have time to send cleaner swell towards the West Coast.  That's not a given, just analysis from people who know a lot more about this phenomenon that I do.  As with past events, the main impact is the Jan-Mar time period - that's when a mature El Nino peaks.  This one continues to build and shows no sign of slowing down.  So we watch and wait.  Keep an eye on the winds going into the weekend, still should be waves around to ride.  Cya in the water.


  1. CDIP reports that "Due to reduced operational support, the following buoys will be decomissioned: Pt. Reyes, Goleta, Anacapa & San Pedro."

    Any thoughts on this?

  2. Yes, i've heard about this. Would be a bummer to lose all these buoys, especially Pt Reyes (for our purposes). I've heard that the Park Services may try to take over operation of the Pt Reyes buoy. Let's hope that comes to pass. It's a vital link in our buoy chain.