Monday, August 30, 2010

Week Ahead

Almost Sept 1 - the official start to the Fall/Winter surfing season in Northern California. It's like Christmas for those of us who have endured a long, foggy, onshore summer. Winds are going to cooperate with the turning of the calendar month too - with light offshore flow (**mornings) forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Very small surf on tap - minimal south swell and north windswell. All eyes to the North Pacific for any hint of a significant pattern change and some swell producing storms. Watching the models for perhaps a low pressure system to get busy next weekend - but that's just hopeful thinking for the moment. We are going into a season ruled by La Nina. We may see less storm development in the West Pacific and more storms in the higher latitudes of the East Pacific as they come around blocking high pressure. This means higher angle swells (300-330), probably fewer large days like we had last season. But La Nina can mean very good surfing conditions with offshore winds for days. Colder weather, less rain (not good). We'll have to see how things unfold. In the meantime, get out and enjoy the nice weather and i'll keep you posted on any developments. cya in the water.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Weekend Forecast

**Great news SE Papa Buoy and CA Buoys are back online for the winter. Just in time! Look for s/sw swell to continue through the weekend - probably in the shoulder high range at most breaks - perhaps bigger sets now and then. NW windswell will be on the rise tomorrow - as NW winds increase offshore. Looking for this windswell to peak Saturday with head high, bigger at times - but conditions will likely be a mess at nw facing breaks Sat/Sun due to the wind. Low pressure is moving down from the Gulf of Alaska - and with it winds and fog will increase. This system will be out of here by early next week - and we might see a warm up next Tuesday - but right now it doesn't look like an offshore/hot event like this past event. Definitely seeing an early Autumn pattern starting to take shape - which is a good sign. No swell producing storms yet - but September is getting closer so should see things change even more in the upper latitudes as we move into the month. Check the winds this weekend - pick your surf breaks accordingly. ***FRIDAY - UPDATE - Storm inbound Saturday - NW winds have already approached gale force speeds in our outer waters. Chance of rain late Saturday - super light amounts. cya in the water.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Good weather fades, Significant South hits

Hope you got out in the past 2 days - it was sick. Significant south swell just starting to show this morning - deep water already 3ft plus at 190-200 - look for this swell to build during the day - probably peaking tomorrow with deepwater heights in the 5ft range - large for around these parts! Unfortunately - southern surge of fog and winds is presently moving north from Monterey. Offshore flow is gone for now. Look for onshore winds and fog to return over the next few days. By the weekend - a very early season gulf low will drop down out of BC - lowering inland temps by 30 degrees over the past couple of days - and bringing with it a very slight chance of drizzle/rain. So winds will probably stay west/northwest from Thursday on. But get to places that like big souths and have some protection from the winds and you might just score. Cya in the water.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

It's ON!

Sunny at the beaches this afternoon with light winds - when was the last time anyone saw that?? South swell peaking today - some nice size in the water - still running 3ft at 17 (deepwater swell). Will wind down tomorrow. Bigger south hits Tues-Thurs - with sets head high + at breaks with a s/sw exposure. Next two days look like sick beach days - with the warmest Tuesday - with EAST WINDS forecast. Hot inland, warm to the coast - yes there is a God and he likes Nor Cal surfers in the Fall. Do enjoy this upcoming couple days as we're going to cool off again late in the week with a return to fog and onshore winds. We might still be lucky on Wednesday. cya in the water.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Update - Offshore Winds Mon/Tues

Winds are howling tonight. Blowing northwest - turning northerly during the day on Sunday. Early season storm moved through the Pac NW and is now moving into the northern Great Basin. This will shift the winds offshore for Monday/Tuesday with much warmer temps. In fact probably the warmest it's been since Mid June. Still hard to say if this wind event will make it all the way to the coast - and give us our first offshore of the early Fall. For sure the fog will be scoured out - have to wait and see. South swell is peaking tonight/Sunday - 3-4 ft at 17 sec (deepwater). Mix of north windswell in the water tomorrow too - 3-5 at 8-10 secs. It could be a total mess at OB in the morning with the winds. If the gradient relaxes overnight - it might be marginally clean early - but the smart money is on a big mess. The sun might be out - so you can't have it all - at least not yet......Pattern will go back to fog and gloom after Wednesday - so dont get too excited. This is just a teaser of hopefully better weather to come as we move into September. Sept 1 is normally the official start to the Fall surf season in Nor Cal. Not tracking any gulf storms yet. Just more south swell and windswell most of next week. Check the winds, surf early. cya in the water.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Surf early. I sound like a broken record but onshore winds the rule this weekend with fog and cool temps at the coast. South swell through Sunday with some decent size at times. That nw windswell event didn't materialize as forecast for size but there will be some windswell in the water. Could see some offshore flow next Monday and Tuesday! More on that event Sunday. Cya in th water.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Week Ahead

More images from Mexico. Rest assured it wont be like that around here anytime soon. High pressure remains in control in the Pacific Basin. Expect fog all week with onshore winds - lightest (if you can call it that) in the mornings. There is a chance this high pressure blocker will move further West - which might enable some storms to rise up and over the ridge and get into the Great Basin. This is the first time the models have hinted at this set up - which is usually the rumblings of an early Autumn pattern change. I wouldn't count on it just yet - wait to see how things pan out for the rest of the week.

Swell wise - next south/southwest due in here Friday to Monday. Forecasted deep water heights in the 2-4 ft range at 195-200. NW windswell will be on the rise late in the week too - with forecasted heights going into the 10-11 ft range at 9 secs from 324. if that comes to pass it will knock the piss out of the south swell as it moves north. Could see a better run of south swell starting Aug 24 - Aug 28 - more on that event later in the week. Between now and the weekend - small, gutless surf prevails.
cya in the water.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Small storm earlier this week tracked underneath the Aleutian Chain with 25kt winds. We'll see a tiny increase in surf from that storm Fri-Sun - but really it will just reinforce the existing windswell that will be in the water. Looking for 4-5ft at 9 from 320 at the offshore buoys - so considerably smaller near shore. Weather models have been hinting all week at a pattern shift in the upper atmosphere to give us warmer temps and relief from the steady fog and onshore winds. If that comes to pass - we might see the beginning of this on Sunday - lasting into next week. Much warmer temps inland, however it's not an offshore wind event - so we might only see the marine layer compress near the coast and burn off earlier in the day. **IF this happens at all! Patterns such as the one we've been in are very persistent and take a lot of energy to break down. Not sure i'm buying it - but we'll see. What we might see are much lighter winds in the mornings over the weekend. I still suspect some onshore/south wind on Saturday, perhaps light/variable Sunday morning. It's a very unpredictable set up at the moment. Nothing in the Tropics worth noting - could see some added storm development in the North Pacific mid to late next week - and a decent looking (on the models) south swell Aug 20 thru Aug 24. Check the winds, surf early. cya in the water.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Some faint signs.....

Mind surf this one! From my friends south of the border. How sweet does that look? Should last me until October. Far cry from the 1ft mush I drove 2 hours for yesterday.

Just a tease of a Fall pattern trying to get a toe hold in the upper reaches of the North Pacific. One storm dropping down out of BC today, which on a different trajectory could make it to the Great Basin and give us offshore flow - however, it's dropping straight down the West Coast and will form a cut off low - further enhancing this sweet weather we're having for the week ahead. By the weekends, models hint at a bit of a warm up - but we'll see. I don't buy it. By Friday, a Gulf low is forecast to track south of the Aleutians and push towards the West Coast. Because of the approach, no swell forecast for us from this system - but it's a good sign if it comes to pass. Want to see more of that as we move through the month. Tropical Storm Estelle is way south of Baja - but unlikely to strengthen or move into our swell window for anything to result.

Swell wise - it's shite this week. Not much south swell and minimal windswell. Winds look to stay as they've been - onshore, messy, ugly. You might get lucky somewhere for morning sessions if the winds are down. Otherwise, it's just desperation surfing.
Cya in the water.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Weekend Forecast

South swell filling in late today/tonight - right now 1.7 at 17 from 180+. Winds are light - but still onshore. Blowing 5kt from the south at OB - light northwest winds towards Bodega Bay. South swell will probably peak at 3ft deepwater - Sat/Sun. Morning winds will stay light onshore (sound like a broken record at this point). SW/W winds - you guys all know the usual deal with fog at the coast. Current weather pattern looks to stay locked in for the next 7-10 days. Hopefully by December we'll get some offshore/sunny days at the beach. ha. Nothing going on in the Gulf of Alaska - and after this south swell - things looks pretty marginal through mid August - as in no rideable real surf. Get what you can and don't be too picky. cya in the water.

Monday, August 2, 2010

The Summer That Wasn't

Cool, foggy conditions look the norm for the next 7-10 days. August could potentially be the 5th month in a row with below average temps for the entire region. Blocking high pressure - one to our north - and another out in the West Pacific is keeping the overall long wave pattern overhead stagnant. This is why we have fog each day with not much change. Low pressure stays parked to our southwest. This pattern is also keeping the northern branch of the jetstream fragmented. Until the jet consolidates with some decent wind energy we won't see much of a shift - in our weather - or early Fall storm development. Keeping an eye on it however. For this week - same old story - background southern hemi swells and nw windswell. Fog every morning (and lasting all day at many coast locations). Winds may be lightest in the mornings - but that's not saying much. Onshore winds the rule.