Friday, July 30, 2010

Weekend Forecast

The good news about this weekend is August is upon us. One more month to go. Hopefully we'll see some change mid to late month in the jetstream pattern. As for the now - winds are blowing strong N to NW at the offshore buoys, but lighter winds still prevail nearshore with the persistent fog deck. Small south/southwest swells to continue through the weekend (probably waist to maybe chest high) and the windswell will creep up given the pressure gradient to our north interacting with surface low pressure to our south and inland. Best call is to surf early when winds are the lightest. No big changes really in the week ahead pattern wise. Just watching, waiting, hoping for more signals of change. cya in the water.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Week ahead

Small windswell and small background southern hemi swell all week - nothing to get that excited about. Only good thing is that winds will continue to be light each morning. You poor bastards that live near the ocean - you'll probably not see the sun again until September.....cya in the water.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Oh so subtle signs of change....

Caught a glimpse of some local maples with just a hint of early color on their leaves tonight on the way home. Brought a smile to my face. In the North Bay valley where i live, Fall normally comes early and winter tends to linger a bit longer. Tonight it's cold, foggy and windy - and it's been that way along the coast all day. The sw/w winds making a mess of our nice South swell pulsing in. Swell is still 3.4 at 17 from 190 - but winds are dead on any south facing break. Look for high pressure to remain parked out in the East Pac while the normal summer thermal low persists over our interior. What will happen later this week is the low will retrograde some, while a bit of energy cut off from the main jet hovers around CA. Much lighter winds forecast for Friday/Saturday/Sunday - near the coast with variable to se flow. Look for the south swell to hang around most of the week - getting progressively smaller towards the weekend along with small NW windswell created by stronger north winds way up near the Oregon/California border. So hang in there my surfing friends. We're getting closer to August - and normally by mid to late August we start to see some stronger signs of seasonal change. Right now the northern jetstream is in hibernation with colder than normal waters now in many key areas of the Pacific Basin. La Nina is trying to assert her return this Fall. It will be interesting to see if that develops. Before last season, we had three years of La Nina - less rain, more cold, less big swells, but we did have some wonderful runs of winter surf with offshore winds for days at times. So while sometimes La Nina is a blessing for us surfers - it's not good for the State's water supply or snowpack. Time will tell. In the meantime - start to look around in August and notice the changes. As surfers, we're naturally more in tune with our surroundings and it's cool to be in touch with that which so many ignore or dont even realize exist. cya in the water.

Monday, July 19, 2010

South Swell Update

No sign of the new inbound south in our waters yet, however i am seeing a few strokes of energy in far So Cal - in the 3-4 ft at 20 second range. Look for the swell to slowly build overnight - and show in force later Tuesday through Thursday. Best estimates for us will be deepwater swell in the 3-5 ft range at 18-20 seconds. Winds are bad right now - blowing hard NW off shore (outer waters), but S/SW near shore - those NW winds could certainly knock some of the size down as the swell comes up the Coast. We'll have to see. Winds are forecast to get a bit lighter mid week in our outer waters and that will help. We have some big windswell in the water too - in the 8-9 ft range at 8-9 sec - making a mess of everything. The SW winds aren't helping either. Keep an eye on the winds and find your favorite south facing spots mid week. cya in the water.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Weekend Forecast - Good Size South starting Monday

Weekend looks like we'll have increasing nw winds/onshore winds (not great) and windswell coming up with it. Southern hemi stays in the background all weekend. The real deal starts probably late Monday when the 20 sec southern hemi starts to show. This swell is coming from around 195-200 degrees and we could see sets in the overhead range Monday/Tuesday - much bigger the further south you go. That swell will linger most of next week with periods dropping but decent size to stick around through at least Thursday. Keep an eye on the winds over the weekend - we might get lucky for the morning sessions - but i think the afternoons will be pretty blown out. cya in the water.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

NW peaking/fun SW

7.5 at 12 from 305 and fun sw 2.4 at 17 from 200. Fun combo swell in the water tonight. Look for the nw to slowly fade thru the day on Wednesday - with the sw swell hanging around thru the week. Still tracking a good strong s/sw well for July 19-23.
Winds were pretty light today - especially in the am with stronger onshore breezes in the afternoon. Look for that trend to continue all week - light/variable in AM - stronger seabreeze in the afternoon. cya in the water.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Off season NW due, plus SW looks to line up for rest of July

Off season NW swell is due in late Monday night - thru Wednesday. This swell will be strongest Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday morning. Energy from 285-300 degrees - probably going several feet overhead on the sets at stand out NW facing breaks like Ocean Beach. Beyond that - tracking a number of back to back SW swells for July 17 thru July 23. The last pulse in that series - (from the 20th to 23rd) has the potential to send in some decent size swell. I'll continue to track and update the status of these swells by middle of next week. Winds have been pretty light the last few mornings - with mainly light south to southeast flow. Look for that trend to continue thru next week with light winds from the S/SW/W in the mornings - followed by stronger onshores each afternoon. No huge NW wind blow forecast - and water temps have warmed a bit back into the 53-55 range. Looking long term into early Fall - we are falling back into a La Nina set up - El Nino is gone and cooler than normal water temps are being reported around the equator and other regions of the Pacific. This could have an impact on storm development as we start to move into Fall. We'll have to see what happens. cya in the water.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Typical mid (almost) July weather - foggy at the coast, warmer inland. Not much swell this weekend - fading mix of SW and windswell. If we're lucky, perhaps light enough winds near shore to make a paddle out. Nothing epic on the charts - but we are moving closer to Fall with each day - so that's something to be happy for! cya in the water.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Caught this at Endless Bummer blog...

The Surf Magazines Don't Talk About Lapsed Catholics from Todd Stewart on Vimeo.

Thanks to the Endless Bummer guys in NY that posted this. Such a great piece.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

South sticks around today, fades tomorrow

Back from Cabo last night - huge swell down there Sunday into Monday. 15-18 ft faces easily on the sets at it's peak. I saw some impressive buoy readings up here last night of 5ft at 17 from 180 - pretty respectable for a south swell in our part of the world. This am it's down to 3.5 at 17 - but look for that to fluctuate during the day. We also have a shot of mid period (11 sec) windswell mixing in - 7.9 ft from 330 - super steep nw angle - but will cross up at the beachbreaks that face both exposures. Enjoy it while it all lasts because the forecast for the remainder of this week stinks- with dropping windswell and fading south - combined with continued fog, onshore winds. July in Nor Cal. cya in the water.