Thursday, October 29, 2009

Swell from Neki, Lupit for weekend

Two long period swell trains will be inbound for our shores this weekend. Some buoys in the No Pac already showing this swell with the Western Aleutian Buoy at a whopping 31 ft 17 seconds!
First up will be swell from former Hurricane Neki - that was off Hawaii last week. Could see some early signs late Saturday - but main event looks like Sunday with shoulder to head high waves at most breaks, perhaps bigger at NW facing beaches. Direction 285-295. The second, larger swell is from former Typhoon Lupit that has gone extratropical. This storm is a long ways from the West Coast - which means we'll have long waits between sets, but long period and very solid when the sets show. Head high at most spots and possibly well overhead at NW facing breaks. This should steam in late Sunday, peaking Monday. Direction 300-310. Winds Saturday to Monday look light and variable for the morning sessions right now as high pressure maintains control over our region. cya in the water.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Spring in October

Let's see - 25kt winds, gusts to 40 and higher, what month is this again? It's a blow fest at the beaches today - and will continue through Wednesday. Looks like we might see a return to lighter winds for the mornings late in the week - into the weekend. Swell wise, nothing of huge interest in the charts this week. We'll have large windswell over the next couple days, probably biggest today and tomorrow. Period in the 8-12 second range. Water temps will most certainly cool down too with the upwelling that is going to occur. The North Pacific looks super active for this early in the season, thanks to El Nino. Watching a couple big systems right now that will hopefully send us some longer period swell as we start the month of November. I'll have more on those storms as we get towards the weekend.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Russ Short 1977

Russ Short vintage footage from the 70s - riding a bonzer - check the frame grab of the cutback about mid vid. Old school shred.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Solid surf continues thru weekend

Afternoon - big WNW winding down today - but still plenty of size. Look for a further fade Saturday morning - then a new WNW fills in Sat afternoon thru Monday. Size should jump back up to "well" overhead on Sunday at breaks facing NW. Beyond - models are forecasting some rather large, intense storms out in the Pacific - which right now could send us some pretty significant swell for the end of October into early November. Stay tuned on those.

Winds for the weekend - NW winds look problematic through the weekend. At least in the outer waters. We'll see if that wind mixes in nearshore. My guess is NW facing breaks will be on the breezy side Saturday/Sunday mornings. Find breaks protected from the winds and will do something with the size. cya in the water.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Solid SW Swell showing, NW Swell on the rise

Afternoon - solid pulse of SW hitting - deep water showing 3 ft at 17-20 from 210-220. NW also on the rise - now 5ft at 13 from 275. Look for size to increase the rest of the week - and get real big Thursday - Friday - talking 13-14 ft at 16 seconds at 292. Winds are looking light for the morning sessions - perhaps a bit more wind in the afternoons. No rain until next week. All the early season rain is already helping some breaks locally that need run off to work. Could be an epic season for a lot of spots that haven't been ridden much over the past 3 years. El Nino is flexing it's muscle and it's only October. Look for another solid pulse of NW swell to show Sunday. More on that one later in the week. Picture is from NW Mexico last week. A clean beachie we surfed each afternoon. cya in the water.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Updated Forecast

Hi Everyone - back from a week on the NW coast of Mexico - great week of surf, wild weather. Great crew of guys to share some waves with too. Can't wait until next year. I will post some pictures and vids when everything comes in. As for Nor Cal - we have a solid SW swell starting late tomorrow running thru Friday. And also a sizeable NW Gulf Swell that is due to show Thursday/Friday - with double overhead and bigger possible both days. Winds look N tomorrow morning, variable winds in the AM from Wed to Fri. I'll update the forecast Wed with a look ahead to that big Gulf Swell rolling towards our shores late week. cya in the water.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Major Storm to impact Nor Cal next week

If you want to see what a major storm looks like during an El Nino year - check this image. Super powerful system for Mid October. If you look upstream in the pic - you can just see the remains of Typhoon Melor getting ready to drop under the Aleutians. This energy is going to drive into our region Tues/Wed of next week. Right now - forecasts call for up to 10 inches of rain between Monday night and Wednesday night next week. Very high winds - S/SE in direction and everything in between. The ocean is going to be a mess - with long period energy, short period energy and south swell wind chop probably starting late Monday and going thru mid week at least. Things may settle down late in the week - with some sort of large swell hanging around. Potentially looking at deep water swell heights Tues thru Thurs in the 12-15 ft range - period 12-13 seconds, plus 8 and 9 sec chop mixed in. Swell direction 260 to 275 then changing more North later in the week as the storm moves ashore. Best advice I can give is keep your eye on the winds, find places that are protected from strong south winds and can handle the size. Wave heights should be much smaller by next weekend.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Small waves thru weekend - pick up next week

Small surf to prevail thru Sunday - with nothing of any real significance hitting our shores. Mainly NW windswell and some background SW swell. Typhoon Melor is going to make weather news next week - bringing us perhaps our first real rain early in the week - and swell. Very early right now - but forecast calls for Melor to get caught up in the westerlies this weekend - go screaming across the N Pac bringing us periods of swell all next week. It should be a combination of longer period west swell early in the week and then shorter period, larger swell as the storm system tracks thru the Gulf of Alaska. Keep an eye on the buoys - especially the Papa Buoy offshore. Winds right now have been light/variable in the mornings, but look for an increase in the onshore flow as we move into the weekend. If the storm behaves as forecast, and we get rain next week - you can expect s/sw winds to accompany the rain. I'm off to Mexico Oct 11-18 - so I won't be updating the blog.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Weekend Forecast

Yeah, well let's see Lance jump into our 51 degree water.....That's right friends, water temps have tumbled and with a Gale forecast over the outer waters this weekend - I predict water temps in the upper 40s by Sunday. Today we have NE winds, turning West later today. Friday am will see variable winds in the AM. Look for NW winds to ramp up Friday night thru Sunday - with the worst winds Saturday night with gale force gusts. Unfortunately, the weekend looks a bit grim - no NW groundswell forecast - but we'll have plenty of choppy, sloppy NW windswell. Looks a lot like Early Spring, instead of Early Fall. There will be a decent SW swell in the water from 190-210 - Saturday into Sunday - but the NW winds may really hack that up as it moves up the California coast. Spots protected from the NW wind and with a good window to the S/SW might have a few waves on offer.