UPDATED FORECAST 9-26 - N PAC OPEN FOR BIZ

 The fall transition to North Pacific swells is well underway in the Gulf.   A series of low pressure systems, energized by the remnants of West Pac typhoons is traversing around 40 N.  The energy from the West is energizing the jet stream - winds are strong in an area of deep low pressure up under Alaska.  We also have locally generated windswell hitting mostly points from SF north.   First pulse of northwest swell is forecast to arrive later on Saturday likely peaking around 6-8 ft @13 seconds from 300 deg.  At the same time - windswell will increase further to 11ft@10 seconds mostly in the outer waters.   Northwest swell will remain moderate in size from 5-6ft @12-14 seconds through Tuesday.   Biggest north of SF.  Then we have our first real swell of the fall season to come in Wednesday - peaking at 10ft @14 seconds.   Winds stay strong from the northwest until Sunday, when the direction will change to south as the first in a series of storm systems comes ashore for most of Northern California with some moisture making it's way into Central CA.   South winds on and off through about Wednesday of next week.   Rain on and off through the period - heaviest SF north where a few inches will fall.   To the south, keep an eye on Hurricane Narda to toss in decent south swell - close source - 3-4 ft @12-13 seconds from 180.  That will likely impact So Cal most to Santa Cruz.  Everything else further north will be under the influence of the bigger northerly swells.  Plenty to ride, some rain, wind, etc, all the things about fall we look forward to.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 9-13

 First northwest swell of the early season is peaking today along the CA Coast - biggest north of SF at round 7-8ft @14-15 seconds.  Swell direction is 305.   Small south in the background around 2ft@14 from 205.  Another early season storm will brush far Northern California tomorrow and behind it high pressure will build in next week warming temps back up.   It will be windy the next couple days - out of the north/northwest - especially north of SF.   Winds will begin to settle late next week.  Background south swells forecast most of next week - nothing notable until around Wednesday when a longer period south builds in.   There is the potential for another larger northwest swell next week as well - looking at the models things could get interesting around next Thursday and likely more swell behind that as the season is starting in the N Pac and slowing down for the Summer in the Southern Hemisphere.   As NOAA stations/buoys continue to go offline it will become increasingly harder to accurately forecast.  Even basic things like nearshore water temperature become harder to locate given malfunctioning NOAA stations.   Don't look for anyone to repair or replace in the near future.   We will be back to the OG ways soon - just get in your vehicle and drive until you see surf..........cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-8

 Our run of south swell continues this week with another NZ south starting to roll in today at 2@17 from 175 and we have a small northwest swell hitting around 2@11 from 305.   Storm system just offshore will bring some early season rain to N CA - from about SF north - and the most rain from Southern Mendo to the Oregon border.  After that, high pressure to build in, but more unsettled weather potentially this coming weekend as fall begins to take hold.  A better northwest swell is now on the charts for this coming weekend - still on the smaller side but should peak around 3@15 from 305 - starting Friday.  Do not see much of this swell hitting south of Santa Cruz.   Winds seasonably light with southerly winds until Tuesday night switching to 5-10 kt northwest through the period.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST SEP 1 - WELCOME TO FALL

You made it through another summer.   Today is the first day of meteorological fall (Sep-Nov) and for Northern CA, the first day of the good wave or big wave season as we know it which will run through March 1.   The N Pac never really went to sleep this summer - absent the usual NE Pacific High Pressure holding court - instead - CA weather was and remains under the influence of mostly low pressure and associated systems meandering about in the Gulf of Alaska.  This keeps high pressure from the desert southwest in check - for the most part - we've seen some warmer weeks recently especially for people not along the coast.  We look to enter another season of La Niña, but it's weak and should fade out by Spring of 2026.   A few buoy updates - Bodega, PAPA and West Oregon all remain offline.  Given the current administration and cuts to NOAA and the NWS I  do not expect these buoys to be redeployed.  PAPA is a key one given its location 600 NM offshore as it usually gives us a good preview of incoming winter swells.  The next buoy in line is the California Buoy - about 357NM offshore.   No swell making weather systems are in the N Pac at the moment.   We do have a good run of south to southwest swell underway - most stations showing 3-4ft @17 from 195 degrees this morning - quite solid.   Look for mostly southern swell energy all week with plenty of waves to ride.  Winds look strongest from the northwest early this week and mostly outer waters fading towards the end of the week.   Keeping an eye on the N Pac for our first swell maker to the season.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 8-10 - SOUTH TO DELIVER

Beginning a run of what should be one of the better south/southwest swells in a while.  Complex system under NZ for the past 7-10 days continues to send swell trains up to CA.   The next pulse, starting today is showing at the buoys with deepwater heights around 3@18 from 215 degrees.   Swell will build into Monday/Tuesday with deepwater heights forecast to be 4-5ft with long periods - should lead to some decent size surf.  Swell sticks around through mid week and gradually fades out Thursday.   Winds look light through mid week - then will ramp up a bit from the northwest into next weekend.  Cya in the water.