UPDATED FORECAST 8-17

 What appeared as a rather insignificant south swell on the models a week or so back turned into a nice size south over the weekend, which is continuing today.  Buoys still showing deep water heights around 2.5 - 3ft @15-17 seconds from 190-200.  Swell will begin to wind down tomorrow, but still have some energy now and then at south facing spots.  There is another NZ swell inbound for Wednesday/Thursday, models might have this one under sized as well, we will see as it comes into range.  For now - expecting deep water heights around 2-3 ft @ 15-17 seconds from 195-200 deg.  Nothing on the books yet from the N Pac.  Waiting for fall to start.   There is a vast pool of warm water throughout the Pacific right now,  a very strong El Niño continues to build and from all indications will rival or surpass the strongest El Niño events on record.  What that means for our weather in CA and beyond, remains to be seen once fall rolls into winter.  No two El Niños are alike, but the biggest events tend to bring a lot more precipitation into CA and the Southwest.   All will be revealed soon enough!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 8-13

Still not much change in the short term, northwest wind swell, small background south swells through the week, winds are variable depending on location.   Waiting on the N Pac now to wake up and if you look at the satellite coverage over the Pacific Ocean plenty of activity is starting to swirl from east to west and north and south of the equator.  Potential tropical storm will impact Hawaii this weekend, taking a course directly over the Big Island through the chain.   Still tbd on how strong the winds will become, but anyone on the Islands should be monitoring closely.   It does look like we might see a better shot of Southern Hemisphere swells next week as that area is busy again with storms.   But overall, bit of a quiet week again, get some things done!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 8-3

 August!  One month to go until the start of the "good" waves season, especially in Nor Cal.   South is taking a pause after another lengthy run of both hurricane & southern hemisphere swells.   Quite the season we've had due to El Niño from the southern region.  To start the week we have large northwest wind swell - 12-14ft@ 9-10 seconds hitting, biggest SF to the north.  This will gradually wind down into the week as will the northwest winds that created the swell.   By Friday, winds will begin to increase again.  Small south swell later this week, but otherwise nothing much from the southern region for the next 10 days.   Pattern down under is re loading and will probably get quite active again as head into mid August.  So, good time to get some shit done.  Cya in the water.  

HURRICANE FAUSTO SWELL AND MORE NEW ZEALAND SOUTHS - UPDATED 7-24

 Hurricane Fausto is about 1000 miles south of Pt Conception and moving north and west towards the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend.  Swell from Fausto should start to show later today in So Cal and fill in through the weekend Santa Cruz north.   Could see similar size as the swell from Tropical Storm Elida a week ago - perhaps a touch bigger as Fausto was a larger storm.   Our local NOAA weather forecasters are hinting we might see breakers up to 10ft on favorable south facing breaks, not sure it's going to get that large, have to see what the buoys start to show Saturday morning.   For now, think deepwater 4-5ft is easily possible with mid periods in the 14sec range.  At the same time, more swell from the corridor near NZ due through the weekend 2-3ft at 19-21 seconds from 210-215 degrees.  The combination of the Fausto swell and the NZ swell might be what the NOAA models are picking up on and merging the two into a larger event.  For sure this is highly possible as when swells from the same direction overlap - whether it be north or south, this can combine to make the overall swell state larger.   Winds look decent through Saturday and might come up from the northwest again more strongly Sunday into next week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 7-17 - TROPICAL SWELL AND MORE SOUTH FROM DOWN UNDER

 Tropical Storm Elida is forecast to become a hurricane briefly on Saturday.  Current winds are 55kt with gusts to 65kt.  It has moved into the So Cal swell window and will continue a north/northwest track providing the entire CA coast with a decent shot of tropical swell early next week, forerunners perhaps as early as Sunday.  Interestingly the "cone" or path from NOAA has the remnants of Elida southwest of Monterey Bay (but well offshore) by next Wednesday.  CA should start to see mid/high level clouds late this weekend into next week.   Right now not expecting any strong storms/potential lightning events over the State, but could see some activity over the Sierra next week.  Swell should peak around 4@14 early next week - 175-185 deg, but given the proximity of the storm and winds, could see some bigger waves at times.   Would expect longer period forerunners in the Santa Cruz region late Sunday and then swell will fill in for Monday and Tuesday, maybe even extend more into the week for points north of SF.  At the same time we will have some new long period swell from the Central Pacific, 2ft @16 sec from 195 and a much stronger storm developing under New Zealand with very large seas forecast Down Under likely to create a strong south swell for us later in the month.   El Niño is charging forward now with ocean temps steadily rising from Peru up off Ecuador and west to the Galapagos.  Expect a strong hurricane season in the East Pacific through fall and continued swell production from Down Under.  When the N Pac starts to come online late August into September we may very well see some large swells for early Fall.   Cya in the water.