UPDATED FORECAST 9-21, NORTH PACIFIC WAKES......

Over the weekend a review of the satellite feeds (Windy.com, Pacific Satellite link in my link bar) from the N Pacific showed an impressive low pressure system in the northeast Gulf of AK, which has now made its way into BC.   You can see the active jet stream with multiple lows moving west to east, along with a distinct atmospheric river flowing at the base of the troughs from just east of Japan to a point west and north of the Hawaiian Island Chain.   We do have some small northwest swell inbound from the first low, deepwater heights at the outer buoys showing around 4@17 sec (West Oregon Buoy).  We also have a small New Zealand south/south west swell rolling in at around 2@17 from 200.   The Gulf swell won't begin to show until late day on the north coast of CA, spreading south through mid week.  We also have two new tropical storms in the East Pacific - Odalys and Polo.  Neither will be a swell maker for CA, too far west and moving in the wrong direction.  Could see a bit of sideband energy, but likely lost under other swells in the water.  Northwest winds most of the week over the outer waters, although models might be overdoing the strength with the nearshore fog/south wind influence.   However, with high pressure building in safe bet to say the northwest winds may win out.   No rain in the forecast except a small chance late this week when high pressure exits and low pressure comes back into the Pac NW.   The El Niño pump is primed and strong, expect the real effects won't really get started until December, but the energy out in the Pacific is impressive for September.  As we move into October and November things will most likely slowly ramp up.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-8, SWELL FROM MARIE FADES, NEW SW SHOWS

Left overs from Hurricane Marie swell still showing this morning - deep water heights around 3ft at 10-11 seconds from 175 deg.   A new southwest swell from the New Zealand corridor will start to fill in later today/tonight, 1.5ft at 19 seconds, peaking tomorrow through Friday at 2-2.5ft at 15-17 sec from 215 degrees.  Winds look to stay mostly light through the week as high pressure sits overhead with offshore flow, very little marine layer or fog push until late week when temps will cool back to near or below normal.   Not tracking any new swells from the Gulf, but some wind swell will mix in through the week staying at 3-4 ft with very short periods.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1!

Welcome to the 2026/2027 good wave season!  You made it through another summer.   One of the stronger south swell seasons i  can remember and it's not nearly over yet.  We have three named storms in the East Pacific/Central Pacific Basin.  Hurricane Katrina, TS Marie and TS Lowell.  Folks in Hawaii will be keeping an eye on Lowell for weather and surf impacts.  West Coast is already seeing some swell from Karina at 2.8 to 3 ft at 11-12 sec from 155-175 degrees.  Swell will build through the week as the period increases and swell period moves into the 14 sec band.  Some background swell from Lowell will fill in as well, but just reinforce the existing tropical swell in the water.  Towards the weekend we have another New Zealand Southwest swell coming in which will boost things further.  That swell will top ou at 2.8@16-17 sec from 200-205 degrees.  We do have weather coming in from the Gulf of AK for points north of SF into the Pacific Northwest.  Heavy rains for Seattle, Oregon, NW CA.   The dividing line for measurable rain will likely be Santa Rosa north.  No swell of interest from these weather systems as the jet stream is plowing north to south carving out a deep trough sandwiched between high pressure west of Hawaii and another high in the Desert Southwest.   Winds look pretty decent all week as the low takes over the region.  Will fluctuate between light south and light north/north west most of the week.  Plenty of surf on tap, cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 8-25 - East Pacific Gets Busy

 Small south swell rolling in - 2-2.5ft@13-14 seconds from around 180-190 degrees.  Watching the E Pac right now as we have a number of disturbances including Tropical Storm Iselle which is taking a north/northwest track and should send a decent pulse of tropical swell to CA mid week on.   Will fill in later this week in Nor Cal.  Probably 3ft@11-12 seconds, but some longer period energy rolls in in advance in the 17 sec band.  Behind that, tracking some additional disturbances including more from Down Under.  Winds look decent this week, fall is knocking on the door.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 8-17

 What appeared as a rather insignificant south swell on the models a week or so back turned into a nice size south over the weekend, which is continuing today.  Buoys still showing deep water heights around 2.5 - 3ft @15-17 seconds from 190-200.  Swell will begin to wind down tomorrow, but still have some energy now and then at south facing spots.  There is another NZ swell inbound for Wednesday/Thursday, models might have this one under sized as well, we will see as it comes into range.  For now - expecting deep water heights around 2-3 ft @ 15-17 seconds from 195-200 deg.  Nothing on the books yet from the N Pac.  Waiting for fall to start.   There is a vast pool of warm water throughout the Pacific right now,  a very strong El Niño continues to build and from all indications will rival or surpass the strongest El Niño events on record.  What that means for our weather in CA and beyond, remains to be seen once fall rolls into winter.  No two El Niños are alike, but the biggest events tend to bring a lot more precipitation into CA and the Southwest.   All will be revealed soon enough!  Cya in the water.