Monday, March 5, 2018
March. Traditional end of our winter season and the beginning of northwest winds and cold water. Well we've had the cold water for 2-3 weeks now - winds actually not that bad right now and the forecast for this week isn't the worst i've seen for the start to March. We have another storm system out in the Pacific which is due to come ashore Wednesday through Friday (earlier far north). High pressure is getting pumped up today and tomorrow in advance of that front with northeast to east winds forecast due to the direction of wind flow. By Tuesday night - south winds will ramp up and will remain strong through Wednesday, easing some Thursday (but still southwest) and then light west by Friday. Swell looks to remain fairly mid size through the week - 4-6ft 12-15 second periods. Pattern looks to remain active as go through Mid March - so perhaps we will see some decent swells and variable wind. Cya in the water.
at 7:44 AM
Saturday, February 24, 2018
It's almost March, but with La Nina raging - feels and looks like Spring. Water temps continue to drop with the onslaught of northwest winds - 49f at SF 47.7 at Pt Arena. It's cold. Air temps remain cold as we're locked in a trough pattern with systems sweeping down from BC. Slight chance of rain far north today - better chance of rain everywhere by Monday and finally some decent precipitation forecast for late next week as the Polar Low over Hudson Bay has moved East (this has been the blocker for the past month or so) which will allow more moderate Pacific air and storms to finally come ashore. Probably too late to make up any real deficit at this point - as most of CA is only 50% or below of average - but we will take what we get. Surf wise - there is a west swell running - about 6ft at 15 sec - but the problem is it's getting trashed by the northwest winds and windswell running down the coast - which is about 100miles wide from the coast offshore. So you might see some bigger pulses now and then if you're surfing at a south facing break today - but it's getting lost under the more dominant windswell energy. NO let up in winds through next week - swell will remain fairly moderate - probably 6-9ft. March 1st is the end of the traditional "good" surf season up here - but will start keeping an eye on the southern hemisphere for some early season action. Cya in the water.
at 7:30 AM
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Storm track remains split in the far West Pacific and as such, we have no really strong systems out there that can produce meaningful swell. Modest pulses this week. We should see an upturn in energy starting Friday night into Saturday as a new longer period swell arrives - peaking Saturday at 7ft 17seconds. North and west facing breaks will have decent size. Winds over the outer waters are suppose to remain elevated - north to northwest - nearshore - could be times in the early mornings with light wind to sideshore/offshore - best bet to check it - wind forecast remains highly variable at the moment. High pressure remains in control - we are really falling behind now with rainfall totals statewide with no real relief in sight. Next week a very cold weather system is forecast to drop right out of Canada over CA and usher in the coolest temps we've seen in a long time - but very little moisture. Long term models show some signs of hope for the persistent ridge to finally break down by the end of Feb - but i'm not sure that's going to happen. March 1 looms, the traditional end to the "good" wave riding season in Nor Cal - ugh - and we could be in for a very windy spring. That means very cold water temps too. Cya in the water!
at 8:43 AM
Thursday, February 8, 2018
It's not looking that great for the weekend and week ahead. High pressure remains in control pushing rain and swell producing storms up and to the north. Small west swells have been running in all week - 2-3 ft at 11-12 - hardly the stuff of winter around these parts. Northwest winds will start to really pick up Friday and look to blow through the weekend - perhaps a touch side shore to offshore in certain zones - but with all that wind blowing north of Pt Reyes - it should be a mess. Water temps, already on the cool side far north - should really tumble. Maybe the windswell will get big enough late weekend to get some waves at the south facing breaks. Might see an uptick of longer period swells mid next week - but until then, take what you can find/get. Cya in the water.
at 7:36 PM
Saturday, January 27, 2018
Our run of large surf has come to an end for a while -- storm track is retreating to the north with high pressure to build in bringing dry weather for the next 7-10 days. Winds should be light from the north perhaps offshore starting tomorrow and lasting at least until Monday. Then we might see an uptick in northwest winds as high pressure strengthens mid week. Lingering swell today - 7-8ft at 11-12 seconds - will hold through Sunday and then drop to 4-5ft for Monday. Swell will pick back up some mid week - but staying in the 6-8ft range most areas. So after a pretty wet January - looks like the first week or two of February could remain dry. Could be some good beach break days ahead - cya in the water.
at 8:16 AM