Sunday, May 20, 2018

LARGER SW SWELL THIS COMING WEEK, LESS WIND...

Early Sunday features howling northwest winds down the entire coast of CA.  The worst batch is between Pt Reyes and Pt Arena.   Water temps responding accordingly now at 50 at SF Buoy and 49 most points further north.   Dominant energy is windswell with a fading southwest swell and small Gulf swell.  Eyes to the south for the coming week as a decent southwest swell train is moving north, courtesy of a very strong low pressure system near New Zealand a week back.   Forerunners Monday night - 2ft @21 sec.  Builds Tuesday pushing 3.3ft @18-19s by late afternoon.  Wednesday might be the thickest day at 3.8ft @17s with residual energy left for Thursday at 3.7@15-16sec.   Direction 185-195 degrees.  By mid week the pressure gradient should relax and winds will actually reverse south by Wednesday, very light south, so could have some decent conditions for the mornings in particular.   Get it while you can because there isn't anything yet forecast behind this swell.   The North Pacific has officially gone to sleep for the summer, but at least we're off to a decent start for the Southern Hemisphere.   Cya in the water.

Friday, May 11, 2018

UPDATED FORECAST 5-11/SOUTHWEST SWELLS NEXT WEEK

Better run of southwest swells looks to start next week and continue for a while as storm activity in the South Pacific region has picked up over the past week.   Until then, we're going to get a serious dose of northwest winds over the next 36 hours - gale force to storm force far north, a touch less around the Bay Area.   We do have a mid period northwest swell in the water and large short period windswell from the ongoing winds in the outer waters.   The windswell is 10ft plus at 11 seconds from 320.   The smaller northwest is running 4-5ft at 12 seconds but likely undetected due to the more dominant windswell.   Due to all the wind and the wind forecast - water temps are dropping fast due to the upwelling.   SF Buoy around 49.  Pt Arena Buoy at 48!   Winds will blow strong until we get a southerly surge Sunday, when direction will shift to the south at about 5-15kts.   First southwest swell forerunners will likely show up late Sunday/Monday - 2-3 ft at 17 from 190.   Second swell will follow during the week with a better angle 213-220 also around 3ft at 18 sec.   That swell should continue through next Thursday.  North Pacific is going to sleep for the summer - jet stream is retreating to the north and North Pacific High is asserting it's dominance.   La Nina is about gone and hopefully this will equal a more favorable configuration for storm production in the Pacific next Fall.  Finally, have board bags, leashes, fins and a few wetsuits available at my garage sale this weekend (see post below) both boards were sold this week and no longer available.   Cya in the water.

Friday, May 4, 2018

WASABI GARAGE SALE/UPDATED FORECAST

Mothers Day Weekend we're having a garage/moving sale at 102 Redwood Drive, Woodacre, CA.   For surfers, board bags, some wetsuits, gear, couple boards for sale:  9.6 Ashley Lloyd log and a 7.4 Mitsven single fin.   Bunch of backpacks, clothes etc.   For the mom's and girlfriends, plenty of home stuff.  Starts next Friday May 11th (10am) and runs Saturday, Sunday both days 9-5pm.

Now for the forecast - well, it's May.   Actually the winds don't look horrible the next five days - just not much swell around from either the north or south.   Basically looking for small windswell through the period - at around 4ft 10 seconds.   Might be an uptick in winds mid week - but check it each AM - beach breaks will probably be biggest and early morning sessions might provide a few opportunities.

I'm moving to the far north coast early June - however I  will continue my forecast updates for the region.   Cya in the water.

Saturday, April 21, 2018

NOW IT'S SPRING, UPDATED FORECAST 4-21

That should be a wrap on the rain for the season.   High pressure beginning to take control and the jet stream is retreating to the north.   Still some lows spinning out in the N Pac, so we're not done with winter swells just yet - but they're becoming smaller and less frequent which is normal.   Today we have a mix of swells in the water.    Northwest Gulf swell is showing at 6-8 ft from 13-14 seconds from around 300deg. The bigger swell north of Bodega Bay.   Windswell in the water, 4-5 ft at 7-9 seconds.   Small south swell is building - 1.4 ft at 14 sec from 205.  Winds are already blowing northwest over the outer waters. bit lighter for the moment near shore - but it's not very clean unless you go to breaks out of the wind.  Look for winds to continue through about Tuesday when the high pressure pattern relaxes some and a weak low pressure system passes to our north.   This will actually turn winds light south about Wednesday - so those two days next week - Tues/Wed - might be the cleanest coming up - but mostly in the AM.  South swell forecast to build, however think most of the energy will get lost in the more dominant northwest swells and the northwest wind offshore will shred the size some as it makes it way around Pt Conception.   Places that pick up the south and work well on northwest winds might have some fun waves.  Moderate period/size northwest swell to continue through about mid week.   South swell will be gone then as well.   La Nina is fading fast so that's a wrap on her - unlikely to return for a third winter next year.   It will be interesting what pattern sets up for the coming year and into the next season.   Cya in the water.

Thursday, April 5, 2018

BACK TO WINTER/UPDATED FORECAST

Potent storm system just offshore today - will arrive overnight and bring rain through Saturday.   South winds will ramp up and stay elevated.   There is a nice southwest swell in the water today - about 2-3ft at 15-17 seconds.   That will hang around through tomorrow and then fade out into Saturday.   Meanwhile, larger northwest swell will build in, actually probably more west than northwest.   Friday look for that swell to be around 7ft @11 seconds, building Saturday to 9-12ft and Sunday a touch bigger 10-12ft.  Period will stay 11-12 seconds as it's coming from this storm as it nears the CA/OR/WA coasts.   I don't see an improvement in winds until Monday.  That said, plenty of swell on tap, rain and wind - but there are nooks and crannies up and down the coast that will hold waves.   Cya in the water.