Saturday, April 22, 2017

UPDATED FORECAST 4-22, SOUTHWEST SWELL

SW swell in the water this am - 3-4ft at 17-18 seconds from 195.   Small north swell continues as well.   Winds are generally east or non existent as a weak front is moving through Northwest CA - actually bringing rain north of Jenner at present.   Crazy swing from the great day yesterday.  Winds will most likely pick up behind the front tonight and tomorrow and west swell will increase back to 9-10 ft at 14 seconds and that swell will pretty much hold through Monday, back off some Tuesday and then increase again on Wednesday as the Pacific remains very active for this late in the season with more rain forecast on Monday/Tuesday - heavy rain in fact far north, with much less around the Bay Area.   Southern Hemisphere season has started at this point and is also pretty active.   The current sw swell will probably be lost in the more dominant energy tomorrow, however spots that like swells from that direction will be fun.   Check the winds - plenty to ride for the coming week.   Cya in the water.  

Saturday, April 15, 2017

UPDATED FORECAST - EASTER WEEKEND

With this past week's storms Nor Cal just broke the all time wettest season on record surpassing 1982-83 (which was a strong El Nino event).   The eight station recording index now shows a cumulative total of over 90 inches of rain for the year.   Surf wise, not bad to start today, winds are light northeast and surf is overhead at west/north facing breaks.   North swell is 5-7ft at 10 sec, very small background SSW swell in the water too - but mostly lost under the northern energy.   There is a new northwest swell filling in today - deepwater should stay in the 6-7ft at 14 sec range.  Winds will turn south overnight as the first in a series of weaker storm systems comes ashore bringing more rain. Easter Sunday should feature south winds - swell 4-6ft at 15 with rain becoming likely during the day.  Two more systems slated to come through until next Wednesday, then high pressure will build once again.   Winds don't look that heavy for the first part of the week - fluctuating between south and west as systems come and go.   Check the winds and you'll probably find a spot to ride.   Swell will stay in the small to medium size range through the period.  Cya in the water.

Saturday, April 8, 2017

JANUARY IN APRIL - UPDATED FORECAST

More rain today as another short wave pinwheels at the bottom of a low pressure trough located in the Gulf of AK - brief high pressure should build later today - into tomorrow, but another spoke of energy is going to rotate in on Sunday - best chance rain North Bay.   Another break and then models are hinting at another very significant storm mid to late week - like the system that came through a few days ago bringing high winds, heavy rain and very large swell.  Surf is 11ft at 12 sec from 300.   Winds are west/southwest and water temps 50 degrees in the Bay Area - colder further north.   Might not be a surf day unless you like the junk.   Not seeing a real break in winds over the next week - will fluctuate between south/southwest as systems come through and then northwest behind front passage.   Plenty of swell on tap as more swell trains will move through the waters.   Check the winds each day and you'll probably find spots to ride.   Climate models are saying La Nina is over and El Nino is already starting to show signs of coming back to life for next winter.   I'm not sure what that is going to look like, given we are about to break the all time record for wet weather (1982-83) during a season that i don't think any of the experts predicted would happen.   Cya in the water.  

Thursday, March 30, 2017

UPDATED FORECAST 3-29

Strong northwest winds are blowing this AM after passage of a cold front overnight which dropped some rain throughout the region.   High pressure in control now through the weekend and likely beyond with strong northwest winds forecast.   Decent size swell is in the water and will build through the weekend - 10-13ft on Saturday, 15-18ft on Sunday, fading some on Monday.   Spots protected from the northwest winds will obviously be cleaner.   Anything facing west/northwest will be shredded from the wind.   Water temps will likely begin to cool off with the never ending spring time winds that are setting up.   Long range models still hinting at more rain late next week will see if that comes to pass.   The region is just shy of the all time rainfall record from the 82-83' Super El Nino - we need about 5 more inches to surpass that.   The current rainy season doesn't end until Jun 30.   Cya in the water.  

Sunday, March 26, 2017

UPDATED FORECAST 3-26

Last week of March.   Chance of rain later today (it's raining further north) and then overnight this system will exit giving way to northwest winds on Monday and northwest swell 9ft at 11 seconds.  Expect swell size to continue at 9-11ft with short periods pretty much through next Friday, along with northwest winds 15-25kts most of next week - getting stronger late week as we are seeing the Pacific High start to set up for Spring.   Could see a minor system brush the region mid week with chance of rain, beyond that - dry weather will prevail.   Spots protected from the northwest wind will be your best shot at anything clean and rideable.   Cya in the water.