Monday, September 18, 2017

UPDATED FORECAST SEP 18/SOLID SWELL IN THE WATER

Buoys in the Gulf of Alaska reporting swell of 17-22ft at 14 seconds this morning depending on location.   That's our swell in the water heading this way.   Surf will be on the rise Tuesday far north and Bay Area overnight - then quite solid for Wednesday & Thursday when deep water heights will be in the 8-12ft/Wed, 6-10ft/Thurs range - from 305-320.    Look for decent size to hang around through Friday.   Early season storms hitting WA, OR and far Nor Cal, will actually bring a chance of rain as far south as Sonoma County tomorrow and then exit the region mid week - leaving us with northwest winds behind the fronts.   Winds will be the issue the next few days, no real clean conditions but best bet will most likely be for the AM sessions.   Winds might lighten up a bit towards the end of the week.   With regards to buoys, the CA Buoy remains adrift but still reporting.  The Papa Buoy is no longer reporting wave heights.   Oregon Buoy, Mendo Buoy and Pt Arena Buoy best window to incoming swell trains.   I've also added the Stormsurf/Gulf of Alaska Buoy link which gives you a good look at swell much further out.   No idea when these broken or out of commission buoys will be retrieved and redeployed.   With the Useless Idiot in the Whitehouse trying to cut NOAA programs as well as claiming climate change is a hoax, might be a while before we get operational buoys again......cya in the water.  

Thursday, September 14, 2017

UPDATED FORECAST/SEP 14/First large NW swell next week

Northwest winds are blowing hard over outer waters - fading, meager sw swell still around but limping out of here tonight as another equally impotent s/se swell moves in or misses the Coast entirely.   Windswell will be the rule through the weekend - and wind.   Things look to improve by Tuesday/Wednesday when a longer period, northwest swell, a real swell, moves into the region.   More on that by Monday - storm has not come together yet in the N Pac, but models are forecasting deepwater heights in the 8-12ft range during that period.   So it should have some size and power.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.

Thursday, September 7, 2017

UPDATED FORECAST SEPT 7TH

Long period forerunners will come in overnight from an extra tropical storm that developed last weekend.    Look for deepwater 4-5ft at 19 sec tonight into the morning.   Period will drop to 18 sec then 16 sec by Saturday afternoon.   Decent size through the weekend.  Could be a bit lully at times, these longer period extra trop swells tend to come from far away and this one is no different.   Swell direction plus 290 degrees.  Meanwhile, mid period Gulf swell is fading out today - 4-5 at 12-13 seconds.   This one came in smaller than forecast and inconsistent as well.   Winds are still south to southwest today - which kick over to light north overnight into tomorrow.   Then stronger northwest wind for the weekend.   Long term into September looking pretty promising and active in the N Pac.  Cya in the water.  

Monday, September 4, 2017

SEPTEMBER 4TH/UPDATED FORECAST

Nice SSW swell peaks today - long period swell is 2.7 at 15 from 185 plus.   Swell fades tomorrow and then we have our first fall swell due to arrive Wed/Thurs.  That swell from 290-305 will be good for overhead surf at winter breaks, smaller at south facing breaks.   Western Typhoon Sanvu is the next system behind this one - that will generate swell after recurving in the Pacific, for around the 13th - 15th.   I'll dial in that swell later in the week.   As for winds, southeast to south winds first part of the week due in part to the upper level pattern and remnants of former Mexico TS Lidia which is moving overhead this morning bringing increasing clouds and a chance of thunderstorms.   Once Lidia moves out - winds might switch briefly to west then northwest late in the week.   No huge northwest wind blow in the forecast, just highly variable.   Morning sessions might be best bet.   Plenty of swell on tap this week - certainly looking like September.   Cya in the water.  

Friday, September 1, 2017

SEPTEMBER 1!!!

Welcome to the 2017/2018 season.   You made it through another summer, a particularly lousy summer for surf around these parts.    Extremely hot conditions exist today and will stick around over the weekend.   As such, high pressure has crushed the marine layer leaving us with fairly light winds today and through the weekend.  Perhaps an afternoon sea breeze each day.   Not much swell to talk about - small windswell and a fading steep angle south swell which didn't make much noise the past few days.  Look for a better angled sw swell (200-210) to move in around Sunday afternoon - maybe chest high sets at best by Monday/Tuesday.   Our first swell from the N Pac looks to head in here around Sept 6-7 - as models forecasting a storm to develop in the next couple days.   That swell, from around 300 will be good for head/overhead surf, possibly larger at times.   Behind that, another swell is forecast for Sept 8-10.   I'll be watching those lows develop this weekend and update late weekend or Monday.   Good sign however, with some solid surf (finally) on the way.   Cya in water.
***CA BUOY is adrift but still reporting.   No idea when they will get it back to it's original position.