HURRICANE ROSA, N PAC TO GET BUSY, S PAC STAYING BUSY....

Interesting pattern taking shape offshore tonight with some possible rain coming into our region tomorrow and then again Mon/Tues.   No gully washers mind you, just a little shot here and there.   In addition to the active weather, Hurricane Rosa is churning off Baja and moving slowly north/northwest through the weekend with a decent chance we will see some swell from that system by Sunday (Bay Area), Monday/Tuesday (points further north).   If one believes the models, could actually see deepwater swell from Rosa late Sunday going 3ft plus at 14 seconds from a very steep 165.   Monday, swell forecast to build to 5ft at 15sec also at 165 (quite solid if this materializes) and then fading Tuesday at 3-3.5ft at 13-14 seconds from 165.   Due to the angle of approach only the best south facing spots will pick this swell up and much will just radiate by the California Coast.   Also keeping an eye on two storms in the N Pac over the weekend to see if any swell materializes for next week and from the S Pac two storm systems in play for perhaps some swell late next week or early the following.   Winds look pretty light through about next Wednesday.  Fall is here.   Cya in the water.  

HAPPY FALL - WEEKEND UPDATE

Today is the first full day of fall.   Small southwest swell is in 1.9ft @17 from 195.   Quick check of conditions show light winds and fog everywhere.   Swell to stick around tomorrow and then fade out and then it's back to a windswell regime for the foreseeable future.   No swell of interest from the North Pacific forecast in the coming week.   Still waiting for the machine to kick in.   Long term odds look better for late Sept into the first week of October if one can believe the models this far out.  So get what you can and best conditions will probably be found early over the next week.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST/SEPT 14

New southwest swell in this morning at 2-3 ft @18 from175.  Winds are lighter from the northwest than they've been.   Look for south swell to continue for the next few days with no real clean up with the winds (or fall offshores) - so AM sessions will be best.   Still watching for our first northwest swell of the season - nothing yet.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 6

Small southwest swell started rolling in yesterday and continues this AM.   2.2@15 from 190.   This swell will slowly fade out tomorrow.   Wind swell remains in the water as well - 3-5ft at 6-8 seconds from 300 +.   No swell producing storms forecast in the N Pac yet, but there is activity and things look to perhaps improve mid to late next week as a series of stronger fronts get traction.  In the meantime - we have a run of southwest swell coming for this weekend.   First forerunners will come in late Saturday, 1-2ft at 20-21 sec.   Sunday, swell builds to 2.8 at 18 sec and will hold at that duration through Monday.   Swell will begin a slow fade by next Tuesday with period down to 14-15 sec.   Swell direction will be around 170-180 - so a touch steep.   Wind and fog remain the issue with no offshore winds forecast at this time.   Keep an eye on the winds, AM sessions probably the best right now until we start getting some fronts through the Pac Northwest into the Great Basin giving us a bigger hint of fall.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

Welcome to the 2018/19 surf season in Northern California.   Made it through another summer.   Going to look like summer for a while yet as we have strong northwest winds, dropping water temps again and lots of wind swell.   Wind swell will get larger towards Sunday so some spots that can pull in that energy and keep you out of the wind might be the call.   Not many of those exist around these parts, but there are a few.   Don't see much let up in winds through early next week and no ground swell on the horizon yet from the North Pacific.   Could see a small south swell starting around Monday - but feel like it might get beat down and lost under the more dominant NW flow.   Some small background hurricane swell from Miriam and Norman could dribble in over the weekend as well at south facing spots - but don't expect much above waist high.   Cya in the water and i'll be back to more regular reports now that it's September!