Friday, July 28, 2017

UPDATED FORECAST 7-28 - ACTIVE TROPICS ** New forecast links

Just need to get through the next couple days and then we should start seeing some swell from tropical systems to our south as well as southwest swell from way Down Under.   Tropical Storm Irwin and Hurricane Hilary are both about 900-1000 miles off Cabo.   Irwin is not going to be a swell producer, in fact will get sucked up into Hilary over the next few days and orbit each other in a rare event called a Fujiwhara interaction.   Swell from Hilary should start to show Sunday 7-30 at 3-4ft deepwater at 13 seconds (maybe longer period forerunners of 17-18 sec before) and peak Monday 7-31 with deepwater swell at 4ft 13 seconds.   Very steep angle at 165 - so it's going to miss a lot of our coast as it comes in.  At the same time two longer period fetches from the south will arrive - both will max out at about 2-3 ft 15-18 seconds but a better swell direction with both of these events at 175-180 - which is still rather "south" for our area.   Winds are going to be an issue as the northwest wind machine will be ramping up with the normal Pacific high pressure/thermal low pressure inland deal that is so common up here during the summer and has been quite persistent this summer.   There is a West Pacific Hurricane called Noru that has brought surf to Kauai today and tomorrow - an early sign of things changing as we move towards August.   Redwoods are also starting to get some brown brambles which is also a good indicator.   One more month to go until Sept 1 and right on cue - the patterns out there - both on land and in the ocean are following suit.
Note - i've added two links in the forecast section.   CDIP All Pac Buoy link gives you a look at deepwater swell around the Pacific Basic and even points beyond.   Stormsurf/Quik/CAST - these guys are the best in my mind at predicting weather, swell, wind and everything else as it applies to surfing on our coast or anywhere for that matter.   This is a summary page for Nor Cal - I've used for years when i want a quick look at what is going on.

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