Thursday, December 31, 2015

Updated Forecast/Happy New Year

Clean conditions with east winds forecast to continue for New Years Day.  Deep water swell 5-7ft at 15 seconds, increasing on Saturday night to 6-8 at 17 seconds.  Swell will continue to increase through the weekend along with high pressure breaking down and the storm door opening up for the first week of 2016.  Winds will switch southeast to south Sunday and last through next Tuesday.  Get on it the next two days - past that it will be stormy, windy and hit and miss.  Cya in the water.

Friday, December 25, 2015

Merry Christmas/Updated Forecast

Merry Christmas to all that follow this blog.  Swell is running 11-12 ft at 305 this morning, size should trend down over the weekend (along with light winds Saturday morning).   I think tomorrow will be one of the "smaller" days we've had in a while - with deepwater heights in the 8-10ft range.  Swell will go smaller on Sunday but by then our next storm system will be knocking on the door with southwest winds ramping up through the day.  After that system passes we may have a few days of high pressure next week allowing for winds to remain light for morning sessions.  Swell will slowly creep back up Monday and into Tuesday - 11-14ft deepwater again by Tuesday.  Cya in the water.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Updated Forecast/12-19

Frontal passage early this morning with widespread rain throughout the region.  Northwest winds are already blowing early as the next large NW swell begins to roll in.  Already showing 12 ft at 14 seconds far north - will be in later today and hang around through tomorrow.  Swell peaks tomorrow at 10-15 feet.  SW winds tomorrow as another system comes ashore with rain in the afternoon.  Winds go NW again on Monday behind that passing front - swell remains 9-12 ft at 14 seconds.  NW winds will blow through Wednesday as we remain in a low pressure influenced environment - enhanced by El Nino - with storms lined up across the Pacific and dropping north to south along CA bringing rain, winds, mountain snow through Christmas.  By now you can probably see the pattern for the winter - rain, swell, wind.  Repeat.  We still have the heart of winter to come and i expect January thru February to be very active.  No shortage of waves to ride - just need to find places tucked in from whatever wind direction is active each day.  Cya in the water.

Monday, December 14, 2015

Updated Forecast/Week of 12-14

XXL large run of swell continues this morning with Pt Reyes showing 19ft at 12 seconds from 305.  Some of the biggest nearshore readings in a very long time were regarding this past Thursday with northern buoys showing 30-32 ft at 17 seconds for a few hours.  Rain, gale force winds accompanied all this swell and strong northerly gales continue today over the ocean with wind speeds still clocking 25-30kts.  Swell should peak today and move into more mortal territory through the week in the 8-10 ft range.  "Lightest" morning winds look like Wednesday, but no real clean offshore/calm wind events look likely for the week ahead.  In fact, another storm system will roll in next weekend, looking similar to this past weekend's system.  The good news with all this rain, swell, wind - lots of places up and down the CA Coast that need weather to open for business (river mouths, beach breaks) etc will start to get good, if they haven't already, just need the right combination of swell, tide and weather.  Cya in the water.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Biggest swell in many years set to roll in late week

The North Pacific is a conveyor belt of large low pressure systems right now and will be for the rest of the week.  Ocean surface is already agitated and primed from a week of strong winds and large surf.  This coming Thursday and Friday we might see one of the largest long period swells to come ashore in a long time.  Deepwater forecasts are calling for northwest swell 18-21ft at 17 seconds around the Bay Area - 20-24ft at 17 seconds! - north of Bodega Bay.  That's deepwater before it shoals, jacks and feels the bottom at area points, reefs and beaches which will crank up face heights dramatically.  Lots of weather coming in with this swell train - with rain starting Wednesday night and running through Thursday.  Winds too - west winds 15-25kts.  Surf and winds stay elevated through Sunday.  Another chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday.  El Nino making his presence known.  Cya in the water.

Sunday, December 6, 2015

Updated Forecast/12-7 Storm and Swell Door Open

December in Nor Cal - huge surf and weather systems lined up across the Pacific thanks to Mr El Nino.  Large WNW swell cranking up tonight - will be 15-20ft (deepwater) by Monday morning.  Look for light morning winds around the Bay Area, south winds further north.  Storm track is aimed right at Washington/Oregon and far Northwest California - with a complex low pressure system covering the entire North Pacific.  Periods of rain and wind look likely for far north the entire week with the best shot of heavy rain around the Bay Area on Thursday.  Swell to stay elevated through the week - not quite as big as tomorrow - but still plenty of size.  Check your winds, know your spots.  Cya in the water.

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Updated Forecast/12-3

Past few days featured east winds, large clean waves at Ocean Beach and other spots along the Central/North Coast.  Sat picture tells the story of change ahead.  A very strong storm system is moving onshore today with gale force south winds forecast and victory at sea conditions expected.  Swell is going to jump back up into the 14-20ft range - (biggest north of Cape Mendocino) - and stay large through the weekend.  In fact don't look for deep water swell heights to drop much below 10 ft through Monday with back to back West swells rolling through here as a result of a very active and strong storm pattern in the Gulf of Alaska, East and West Pacific.  El Nino is ramping up as we move more into the winter season.  Everything we've had so far in terms of rain and swell is just a teaser for the Jan-Mar time period when the current El Nino will be in full bloom and maturing.  Strong south winds today 20-30kts gusting to 45kts, and then pretty much light south winds through Sunday.   Spots that like that wind direction will be clean, but large.  Cya in the water.