Thursday, January 31, 2013

Weekend Forecast

Ideal conditions for the the next few mornings with offshore flow.  New, long period northwest swell will begin to fill in late Friday night and Saturday morning - getting quite solid Saturday afternoon with double overhead sets by sundown.  Swell is 280-300.  Sunday will be bigger - 10-15ft deepwater, same direction.  Good AM winds.  Surf should stay good size into the first of next week.  Additionally, no rain forecast right now through next Wednesday, but we might finally see a bit of rain next Thursday.  Side note - January was the 3rd driest month on record in SF - .49 inches of rain - going back since they started keeping records in the 1860s.  Doesn't bode well for the State if this trend continues and it certainly keeps our good winter sand bars from perking up at the spots that like a wet winter.  Odd season weather wise for sure.  Plenty to ride, check the AM winds.  Cya in the water.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Week Ahead

Sat photo tells the story of the week ahead.  High pressure in full control pushing the storm track (longwave) pattern up into BC and down into the Central US.  This is actually a good set up for surfing, but lousy for rain and snow production in CA - which is what we've basically had for the past 2.5 weeks.  Storms out in the far West Pac will send swell for later in the week and basically keep things in the mid size range.  NW winds hacking it today, but the winds should turn more favorable later this week, perhaps starting Wednesday morning.  Beyond, the pattern may shift as we move more into February with the stormtrack moving closer to CA and perhaps brining us some needed rain.  For now, the next 10 days look dry.  Check the winds each morning.  Cya in the water.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Weekend Forecast

Another round of long period swell is on the way for Saturday and Sunday.  Northern buoys are already showing 7-8 ft at 20 seconds.  Swell should fill in overnight and be solid by the afternoon - deepwater likely 7-10ft periods 15-18 seconds.  Another weather system may brush the northern half of the state, but rainfall looks light, if anything even falls south of the GG.  Winds have increased from the north/northwest behind the front.  High pressure builds in and it looks like we're going to stay high and dry for an extended period again.  This should bring a return to AM offshore winds next week.  Plenty of swell on tap, check the winds each morning.  Even though we have north/northwest winds forecast, it might be offshore for the morning sessions Sat/Sun, but looking unlikely.  Cya in the water.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Updated Forecast

East winds still blowing this AM with solid swell hanging around at 6ft 17 sec from 280+.  Winds will change to southwest later today as rain returns to the region tonight and Wednesday, especially for the North Bay.  Unsettled weather will return for the weekend, so winds are going to be variable for the next few days.  Surf will increase some more on Wednesday, and then crank back up Thursday, Friday - back into the 8-10ft deepwater range.  Plenty of surf for the next five days, just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Friday, January 18, 2013

Blind at the outer buoys....

Papa Buoy has gone off, still reporting but floating adrift somewhere in the North Pacific.  CA Buoy still out - we've got no window to incoming swell trains until they hit our far northern coast.  Certainly were a few forerunner sets in the water this am - and look for that to increase later today.  Surf should be quite solid by Saturday - but long lulls.  Sunday will be quite large, again, long lulls.  Perfect conditions all weekend long.  Go surf.  Cya in the water.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Large swell to impact coast this weekend

Probably everyone knows we have a very large swell inbound for the weekend.  Should see super long period forerunners late Friday night into Saturday  - we're talking energy 5-6ft deepwater in the 25-27 sec band - quite high and unusual.  That type of energy will really jump when it shoals on Bay Area beaches.  Saturday, size will continue up all day - afternoon 8-10 ft deepwater - 18-20 seconds - maxing Sunday at 15-20 ft, long periods and long lulls, since the swell source was very far away.  Conditions should be close to perfect with light to variable/offshore winds as high pressure camps out over the Western US. Good conditions will continue into the early part of next week.  Cya in the water.

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Week Ahead

Nice week ahead.  Mornings should feature light to offshore winds almost all week with surf on the small side pretty much through the period.  Very cold temps the next two mornings, then things should start to moderate mid week.  Rain stays out of the forecast through the next seven days.  Models are hinting at perhaps a major shift in the weather pattern beyond that, as an active storm pattern looks to set up with possible subtropical systems moving in from the Pacific.  More on that next weekend.  Until then, enjoy the small clean surf.  Cya in the water.

Friday, January 11, 2013

Weekend Forecast

North winds the rule this weekend, lighter winds perhaps on Sunday and into next week.  Steep angled northwest mid period swell - 8-10 ft at 11-13 seconds will start to fade out late Saturday, smaller surf on Sunday.  Might find some place protected.  Cold air temps overnight and am - water temp is now 52 degrees after all the wind offshore.  Not a great weekend for surf, but if you look for it you might get lucky some place.  cya in the water.

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Updated Forecast, Cold Days Ahead

West/northwest mid period swell continues this morning at 7-9 ft at 11-12 seconds from 310.  Winds are east nearshore, northwest at the offshore buoys.  Water temps have been dropping for a few days now, hovering around 53.  Those temps will likely drop a few more degrees as a very cold airmass from Alaska drops into Northern California starting tomorrow night.  Slight chance of rain, snow down to 1500ft and northwest winds will be the rule through the weekend.  We will continue to see moderate size waves from the northwest through the week - biggest Thursday and Friday when heights jump back up in the 6-10ft deepwater range.  Smaller surf for Saturday and Sunday.  Very large tides again the next few mornings so be aware of that if you're hitting it early.  Find protection from the winds and you'll find waves.  Cya in the water.

Friday, January 4, 2013

Weekend Forecast

Moderate size northwest continues today with deepwater swell in the 8-10 ft range at 12 seconds.  Swell will fade some tomorrow (4-8 ft deepwater) and then jump back up again on Sunday (10-13ft deepwater).  Last day of offshore flow, then a weather system comes ashore Saturday (late) with rain well into Sunday.  Winds should change to south/southeast at some point Saturday.  Maybe late enough to allow a morning go out.  Sunday winds will switch behind the front, w/nw.  High pressure looks to quickly rebuild for next week, so we might see renewed offshore flow with decent size swell continuing from the North Pacific.  It's been a great run of surf, that wont change.  Just keep an eye on the winds as they're going to be variable over the next 36-48 hours.  Cya in the water.