Monday, October 29, 2012

Hit and miss this week, mostly miss...

Storm system due to come ashore Wednesday and Thursday this week with rain and south/southwest winds.  We're going to have west swell most of the week - in the 5-7 ft range (deepwater) - the hard part will be finding someplace clean to ride. I think the first "cleaner" day will be on Friday when the winds should be light in the am/or light north.  Until then, check the winds each morning and you might be able to hunt something to ride.  Might be a good week to get some work done, walk the dog, take the wife/girlfriend to dinner.  Cya in the water.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Weekend Forecast

Light n/ne winds should be the rule tomorrow morning - at least near the coast.  Winds are blowing much harder at the outer waters, but doesn't appear those winds will make it to area beaches.  At least for now.  Keep an eye on it for sure - as the wind forecast is tricky this weekend.  Swell wise, smallish surf prevails all weekend - 3-4-5ft at north facing breaks.  Probalby smaller at south facing breaks.  Incoming swell is 270-295.  Size may come up a tick on Sunday.  By Halloween we should have a larger west swell but i'll update on that early next week.  Next rain comes in on Halloween into Thursday.  So, fun size surf this weekend and we should have good AM conditions.  Cya in the water.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Updated Forecast

Another pulse of rain moved through last evening, mainly north of GG.  Winds are offshore/sideshore this AM.  Look for improving winds for Thurs/Fri morning sessions - which should be offshore.  Small northwest swell and southwest swell in the water should make for fun size waves in the 3-5ft range.  Looks like the rain is going to slow down until early next week.  Nice weekend ahead weather wise, but we could see a bit more onshore flow by then.  Keep an eye on the winds.  Stuff to ride for sure. Cya in the water.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Storm door open, better conditions towards the weekend

Strong low pressure in the North Pacific will continue to rotate waves of showers/rain through our area through tonight.  Winds are out of the southeast right now with a mix of small gulf windswell at 4.5 ft at 10 seconds from 325 and very tiny southwest swell.  Next three days look sketchy at best, but check the winds.  By the weekend, high pressure may briefly build over the region giving us some sun and perhaps more favorable winds.  I'll update later in the week.  As a side note, was in Rhode Island over the past weekend and it was firing Friday and Saturday from hurricane swell.  Pretty amazing stretch of coast line if you can catch it good.  Cya in the water.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Updated Forecast - No reports Oct 18-22

Fog finally cleared out and the northwest wind machine ramped up behind it.  Warm temps inland will continue for the next two days - with perhaps a hint of offshore flow near the beaches by Thursday.  Should at least be warmer coast side, but you'll likely need protection from the nw winds.  Current swell is winding down today but still solid at 6-9 ft with periods in the 11-13 sec range.  Reinforcing shot of west/northwest swell will fill in during the day on Wednesday - pumping surf back up in the double overhead range at north facing breaks.  Then we'll see a gradual fade into the weekend as size drops a bit each day.   Looks like the nw winds will regain strength and remain problematic right into the weekend.  Get what you can over the next few days because things will slow down by early next week. We're also probably going to get our first real rain event of the season starting next Monday, lasting through mid week as a large area of low pressure will dominate the flow out in the Pacific and send us a few storms.  Forecast models today coming into good agreement on this major pattern change.  I'm away Oct 18-22, however all the links and such remain active and current.  Cya in the water.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Next Swell Lining Up

Fog and light onshores today as mid period west northwest swell continues.  Our next larger swell is currently showing at Papa Buoy at 13-15 ft at 12-14 seconds.  This swell will start to show late Monday, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday.  Should see double overhead sets at times both days.
Direction 285-300.  Swell will slowly fade late week.  We may see another run of northwest swell next weekend.  Tropical storm Paul, south of Cabo is forecast to become a hurricane late tonight.  South facing breaks could see a shot of SSE swell later in the week from Paul.  Winds at the coast remain a challenge to forecast.  Models are calling for warm temps inland and north winds starting Tuesday.  Winds could get quite strong over our outer waters.  Could see some offshore component to the wind by Wednesday.  A very active storm track is just to our north, slamming Oregon with rain.  This track is forecast to slowly dip south by about Friday, which will mean much cooler temps next weekend and perhaps some light precip.  So plenty of surf on tap the next seven days - just check the winds and you might find some surf windows.  cya in the water.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Updated Forecast

Wrap around moisture from a departing low pressure system brought light rain to much of the region last night - much to the surprise of this weather watcher and the boys that do this for a living at NOAA. Just goes to show you that sometimes Mother Nature has the last word.  Left behind, we have more onshore flow today, low clouds and fog.  Winds are light, but blowing enough to make a mess of things.  We have more swell on the way.  Mid period west northwest swell moves in tomorrow and Saturday.  Should be good for head to a bit overhead surf at north facing breaks.  Direction 270-290.  Next storm behind this - further out in the Pacific (see chart) will bring waves for Sunday thru early next week.  This will feature more mid period swell (11-14 second bands) from 280-300.  Probably at it's peak will feature more overhead waves at good north facing breaks.  High pressure will build back in again over the weekend and it's going to shove the storm track way north.  So we should not have any more rain, could see nice conditions by the weekend and into early next week.  Wind forecast is CALLING for light morning winds, but definitely check it each day as the forecast could be a bit optimistic.  However, after today it looks to me like winds should be pretty light each morning.  Plenty of surf, check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

New long period swell at outer buoys....

New swell crossing Papa Buoy at 4-7 ft with long periods 19-21 seconds.  This is from extratropical storm Maliksi which raced off the Northern Japan coast late last week, reformed under the Kuril Islands and developed into quite a solid fetch headed in our direction.  Swell could be quite solid by sunrise Wednesday, expect head to possible double overhead sets at north facing breaks.  Because this swell is coming from a long ways out - you can expect some waits between sets.  Angle of approach about 298.  Size will drop some on Thursday (as will period) but still pretty solid.  Winds right now continue to look light for morning sessions - just a bit of west of northwest - but in the less than 5kt range.  Low pressure storm system is just offshore today, and will drift southeast along the coast overnight.  The northern branch of the jetstream is supposed to get pretty energized by the weekend and into next week - how far south that energy drops will determine how much rain we're going to get.  Right now looks like we're on the southern extent of any precip - but an active pattern just to our north is taking hold.  More swell will probably follow for next week but from a much steeper angle of approach.  Plenty of surf the next few days. Good conditions.  Cya in the water.

Saturday, October 6, 2012

WNW Swell Filling in - bigger next week

Fun size WNW swell from former Typhoon Jelawat has been filling in all afternoon. Right now deepwater heights are 2.4 ft at 17 from 290 plus.  Swell will peak tomorrow with overhead waves at the best north facing breaks.  Swell will stick around until Wednesday, when new swell from former Typhoon Maliski charges in. Early forerunners will be on the rise next Tuesday with long periods 17-20 seconds from 295 to 305.  Period will drop late next week Friday to Sunday.  At north facing breaks this swell will feature overhead waves with double overhead sets possible as the swell fills in later in the week.  Winds continue to look pretty good for the morning sessions (today was spectacular) - but we could see some unsettled weather start Monday night and last into Thursday.  Weather models are now hinting at perhaps a stronger storm next weekend.  All n all, looks like Fall around here.  Cya in the water.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Light and variable, fun surf ahead

Winds are ESE this am.  Area beaches look fun with a mix of small south/north windswell.  Look for this to continue thru the weekend with a mix of small swells.  Winds should remain light/variable (especially for mornings).  A low pressure system will approach the coast late Sunday - bringing our first chance for measurable light rain through Tuesday.  No major storm/swell makers on the horizon - just surf in the fun size zone.  Cya in the water.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Updated Surf and Weather Forecast

Well, hope you enjoyed the past few days.  The winds have shifted and a southerly surge is underway bringing cooler temps, onshore/sw winds for the next couple of days.  We have a new mid period (very north) windswell in the water at 7-9 ft at 10-11 seconds from 320 + - and ongoing southwest swell in the 2ft range with periods down to 14 seconds.  For the next few days low pressure offshore will slowly creep towards the West Coast - bringing much cooler temps and a chance of showers over the weekend.  We could see light winds for Saturday/Sunday (mornings) - and a new shot of northwest swell for both days.  Nothing big, just more surf in the head high ( a touch bigger) range for north facing breaks.  Check the winds, still plenty of surf on tap.  Cya in the water.