Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Forecast Through New Years....RIP Sean Collins

Sad to hear that Surfline founder Sean Collins passed away this week at 59.  Despite what many have said about his website, as well as forecast sites, the fact remains he was an amazing resource for weather and surf information and revolutionized surf forecasting.  He will be missed for sure.  The thing about surf forecasting, you can provide all the info you want to the masses - it still requires a brain, local knowledge and the ability to interpret information on the part of each individual surfer to "know when to go."  Even on our crowded coast, there are plenty of spots that will always remain uncrowded for that reason.

For us, large back to back northwest swells will continue through the weekend - getting extra large again by late Friday into Saturday (double/triple overhead).  Zonal flow is sending rain into the Pac NW, but we're on the wrong side of the jet stream and look to stay dry through the period.  In fact we're not forecast to have any rain near our region now through about Jan 10.  This is not good at all for Cali, with 38mil plus people and high water needs - we need snow and rains.  December will go down as the 3rd driest on record in San Francisco (going back 160 plus years) - so the situation is not a good one.  Many spots that need rain to turn on - are quietly  sleeping - yet we've had epic day after day at other locations.  It's a mixed bag.  Winds look pretty good through the weekend - especially for AM sessions.  Tides will mellow out some as well.  Plenty of size.  Happy New Year and cya in the water.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Big Swell for Christmas

Long period waves hit the Papa Buoy last night - peak at 22 ft, 19 seconds. Swell is inbound and will fill in late tonight through Saturday - good for double to triple overhead waves again through the weekend at north/northwest facing spots.  Winds will continue offshore, especially mornings.  High pressure looks to finally break down middle to late next week with a slight chance of rain starting Thursday.  No big soaking rains forecast, just systems brushing to our north.  Happy Holidays and cya in the water.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Forecast & Pics from Saturday, Dec 17

Doesn't get much better around here than this past Saturday.  Solid swell, off shores.  All photos courtesy of Sean Shafer.

As for forecast - solid WNW swell continues through most of the week with offshores forecast to kick back in tomorrow through Friday.  Swell today is still in the 10-12ft range at 14 sec from 300.  Plenty of surf all week.  Cya in the water.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Andrew Kidman

Andrew Kidman - InnerViews from on Vimeo.

Thanks to Seekfind for posting on his blog.  Could totally relate to this tonight.

Weekend looks offshore and larger swell arrives Sunday

Back to back WNW swells will arrive starting late Friday - through Monday.  Should see some deepwater swell heights of 6-7ft late Friday - jumping up to 5-8ft Saturday - with bigger sets at northwest facing breaks.  By Sunday - double to triple overhead sets common at northwest facing breaks - with larger sets at times.  Could be offshore all day Saturday - for sure offshore Sunday morning.  High pressure is locking down the region again - and looks to stay dry through Christmas.  Right now we're running far below seasonal norms for rainfall and snow in the Sierra so it's a good time to remind everyone to conserve water.  We have a couple more months of winter left so let's hope the pattern changes.  In the meantime - just ideal surfing weather ahead.  Both swell events from nw at 280-300+.  cya in the water.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Good surf on tap all week

Weekend was epic in spots.  In fact, looks damn fine right now with offshore winds and solid swell in the 6-7ft range.  Look for surf all week - smallest day Wednesday - then creeping back up again Thurs/Fri into next weekend with overhead surf at top breaks.  Offshore winds certain on Thursday/Friday.  Looks like light winds mornings otherwise.  Storm track stays north and east of us.  Cold temps.  Enjoy it.  Cya in the water.

Friday, December 9, 2011

7ft at 20 seconds

Clean, long period wnw swell just starting to hit - 6-7 ft at 20-22 seconds.  Swell will continue to fill in all day - growing larger towards sunset.  Saturday will feature large, powerful surf at north facing breaks - size down a bit on Sunday, but still quite solid.  Wnds are offshore right now.  Should stay light to offshore both Sat/Sun mornings - really an ideal wind/surf forecast for the weekend.  It doesn't get much better for an incoming, long period event.  cya in the water.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Tracking Large Swell for the weekend

Winds have shifted to onshore tonight.  High pressure stays in control the rest of the week.  We have a new WNW swell due in Friday/Saturday - probably bumping up in the 6-10ft range deepwater.  Mornings should still feature light to offshore winds.  No pattern change until perhaps middle of next week.  Cya in the water.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Small surf through week, offshore winds continue

Surf should stay on the small side through the week - then jump up into the large category by weeks end.  Offshore winds look good for Tuesday, likely to continue each morning at least.  Very cold air temps tonight.  We're in a Rex Block pattern as the weather guys like to call it - blocking high pressure sits out in the Pacific along 135-140w - pushing the jet stream up and over the West and into the Great Basin.  This is the reason for these back to back offshore wind events - but not great for swell production.  We don't get any rain either - which isn't good.  Right now the pattern looks to stay in place until Mid December - then perhaps break down.  The active phase of the MJO is trying to fire up in the far West Pacific (the active phase of the MJO increases the energy in the Pacific and thus storms and swells) - once that takes hold we'll probably see a prolonged period of bigger swells, more weather headed our way.  That's usually the case at least.  Still, pretty nice conditions for surfing, so go get some.  Cya in the water.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Offshore Winds through the weekend

Reinforcing shot of offshore winds start up late tonight -- will last through Sunday.  WNW swell is peaking tomorrow - deep water in the 6-10ft range - bigger to the north.  North windswell is also in the water - so beach breaks facing north/northwest will be a bit bumpy at times. Plenty to ride.  cya in the water.