Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Offshore Winds?? Swell update

8ft at 10 from 320 and 2ft at 20 from 195 tonight. South swell taking it's time filling in and probably getting energy knocked out just a bit by the north windswell and strong north winds offshore. It still should fill in nicely tomorrow through Friday. Tomorrow is Sept 1 and the start of the Fall season in Nor Cal - right on time - high pressure building into the Great Basin is going to give us offshore winds but still some doubt they will make it all the way to the coast for a nice warm up. The onshore/fog push still around - but it may just get knocked down. Have to wait and see. Hopefully the winds will at least be light the next two mornings. Congrats - we made it through another summer. Let the good times begin. Cya in the water.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Update on incoming south swell

New swell showing far south - 3.2 ft at 25 seconds!  Quite impressive long period southern hemi energy.  It's only going to get better over the next few days.  Updates to come.  Keep in mind - this swell was shadowed by Tahiti - so there will be lulls. Get your work done now, take the wife/girlfriend out to dinner tonight.  You'll probably want to be in the water later in the week.  cya then.    **New pic up top on blog - thanks to Brian Hawken who captured the image.  I'll be rotating more of his shots through as we roll into Fall.

Monday, August 29, 2011

Strong Southwest Mid Week, Northwest too

Pretty strong southwest/south swell inbound this week.  Starting late Wednesday - with long period forerunners in the 18-22 sec band.  By Thursday and Friday - spots with good exposure to the south will see solid size - head high plus.  At the same time - we have overlapping mid period swells from the northwest due - which will cross up dominate southern energy and make the beach breaks pretty peaky.  Fog, onshore winds continue to be the rule - but mornings have been pretty clean and some spots this past weekend were glassy most of the day.  The weather trend looks to continue that way most of the week - with maybe the lightest winds this week on Thurs/Fri with the incoming swells. Models had hinted at an offshore wind event next weekend as we're into September - but have backed off that and continue to the trend of generally gloomy conditions at the coast - warm inland.  Cya in the water.

Friday, August 26, 2011

Weekend Forecast

Windswell and small background sw swell for this weekend.  Winds look to remain onshore/with fog near the coast.  Perhaps light/variable winds Sunday morning.  So generally small surf the rule.  Hit it early.  Next week, tracking two northwest swell events - more on those Monday - plus tracking a southwest swell that will come up from New Zealand.  End of month looks a bit busier.  Cya in the water.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Week Ahead -

Small Gulf swell is filling in tonight - deepwater at 2 ft 10-11 sec from 315.  South swell at 1.7 at 14 from 195.  Winds have been pretty light the past two days - especially in the am until around 11am.  Should see light/variable winds tomorrow morning - probably Wednesday morning too. Maybe a bit more wind Thursday/Friday mornings.  Pressure gradients staying pretty neutral which is why we don't have a lot of wind at the moment.  Look for this mid period northwest swell to hang around through Wednesday - fading out Thurs/Fri.  Small southwest background swell all week.  Looks like we'll see a few more of these lows track in the upper Gulf of AK region for the next week or so - pushing similar size swell events our way for the end of August.  A good sign, things are changing, the jet stream is getting a bit more active.  September draws closer each day and it's all good to be a surfer in Nor Cal again.  cya in the water.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Weekend Forecast - Update on tropical systems/North Pac awakes?

TS Fernanda is probably not sending any swell our way this weekend - she moved to far west and out of the swell window this week.  TS Greg, will probably send up a very small sw/w swell Sat/Sun - but only to very exposed breaks and very inconsistent.  Probably not noticeable under the sw groundswell in the water and north windswell.  There is a new storm dropping out of the Bering Sea, which will track into the Gulf of Alaska over the weekend.  This may set up a very small (maybe 3-5ft deep water) from 290 - showing late Monday, fading out next Friday.  It's the first system showing some potential as we move towards September.  Don't get all giddy about it just yet - but it's more than we've had from the North Pac since last Spring.  Fog, onshore winds continue to rule.  But winds are forecast to perhaps be a tad lighter the next couple mornings.  The weekend will feature cool temps at the coast for sure - and not much sunshine as low pressure will hang around keeping things gloomy.  It's mainly nw windswell and fading south/southwest swell for Sat/Sun.  You might find something to ride if you know where to look. cya in the water.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

TS Fernanda, TS Greg and more southerly swell

3.0 at 17 from 160 today - steep angle of approach - but some spots are bringing sets in.  This swell is from a storm that formed off Chile around Aug 7th.  Winds are lightest at protected breaks.  Tropical Storms Fernanda, Greg are tracking in the East Pac.  Fernanda is moving wnw towards Hawaii - could see some swell from her over the weekend.  Greg just became a TS today - tracking off the Mexican Pacific Coast.  Forecast to move out and wnw under Baja later in the week.  Not quite in our swell window just yet - but he may move into it by the weekend.  Definitely keep an eye on these two storms - most forecasters dont pay much attention to swells from tropical storms/hurricanes in the East Pac - but they do get in here (as Eugene did a week or so back).  They can have some good punch given their closer distance to our coastline.  More by Friday - keep an eye on the winds - might be light the next two mornings - with coastal fog.  Waiting for the North Pac to really wake up and give us a shot of something decent.  cya in the water.

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Early Signs, Week Ahead

Long period, small wnw swell from former Typhoon Merbok hitting our shores tonight - around 2ft at 17 from 290-305 - first long period stuff we've seen from the wnw in a while.  Small southwest energy continues - also around 2ft at 14-17 sec.  In the North Pacific, a strong early season jet stream will start pushing fronts into the Pacific Northwest this week - a good sign that we're starting to move towards Fall.  All we need now are for some of these fronts to push into the Great Basin and give us some offshore winds - nothing like that forecast yet, but the pattern is encouraging.  We'll probably see some windswell later in the week from these early season storms.  Fog and onshore winds look to continue this week - protected spots are going to be cleanest.  Cya in the water.

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Weekend Forecast

Been down in LA for the past two days - be glad you don't live and surf here.  Crowds, insane traffic.  It's a damn shame too, Malibu on a good south/southwest is a thing of beauty - just wish i didn't have to share it with 500 guys.  For us, some of this south is making it up - but smaller than So Cal - in the 2ft 14/17 sec range (deep water).  Small northwest swell from Typhoon Muifa around - but in the 1-2ft range.  Onshore winds continue to plague our region.  Fog, cool temps.  Who's ready for that first storm of the year to barrel into the Great Basin and give us some nice offshore winds?  We continue to move closer to September - just grit your teeth and get what you can.  Look for this small mix of swells through Sunday.  Cya in the water.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Run of SW swells ahead - plus more West Pac Typhoon action

A bit warbled but fun shot from the weekend - Hurricane Eugene pushed up more swell than expected Saturday - still some traces around today from the south - but probably just blending in with the incoming new sw swell.  We also have traces of swell from Typhoon Muifa - but quite small and background at best.  We will see a building trend of sw swells for about the next 10 days.  The best days look like Aug 12-16 when we could see some plus size sets at south facing breaks.  We have another typhoon, MERBOK - out in the West Pac - which could potentially send us another small WNW swell (290-300) around Aug 15-16.  A sure sign that Fall is just around the corner with typhoons turning extra tropical.  Winds/ fog - continue to bog the coast down - sw/west onshore winds the rule - lightest in the morning hours.  There are some spots that have been cleaner - but you have to know where to look.  Cya in the water.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Updated Forecast

Swell from Hurricane Eugene - showing at 1.8 at 14-17 from 165.  Not many spots will pull that in - but there may be a few.  Winds suck - ssw - fog, onshore - just miserable.  WNW windswell in the mix - and there might be some longer period typhoon swell from Muifa in the mix - but barely noticeable under the wnw windswell.  NO relief in sight from this wind pattern - will remain onshore through the next 7-10 days - maybe some breaks here and there - surf early, know your coastline and you might find something, somewhere, rideable.  cya in the water.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011


August is a transition month for us on the Central/Northern CA Coast.  The N Pac begins to wake up (as it is now with typhoons curving east and headed into the northern latitudes).  By mid month and beyond those of us living in the coastal valleys and hills start to see trees getting some early Fall color, nights and mornings cooler - all positive signs of the change to come.  As for the week ahead - Typhoon MUIFA should send a long period pulse of WNW (285-300) for around Aug 7-14.  May see a few plus sets at north facing breaks.  CAT 2 Hurricane Eugene was 580 miles south of Baja - and if he is to send any swell our way - it would come in around the 8-9th of Aug.  Probably more of a So Cal event.  Background pulses of small SW swell will go through the middle of the month with a lot of storm activity around New Zealand.  I think the best run of SW swell will be around Aug 11-17 - so i'll update on that later.  Winds are still an issue - as a trough of low pressure continues to stay offshore - keeping the onshore push going.  No real relief in sight at the beaches this week.  Best bet is to check early and you might find something rideable.  September 1 is gonna be here before we know it.  Until then - enjoy August, look around, notice the subtle changes and i'll cya you in the water.