Monday, November 29, 2010

Updated Forecast

Super clean conditions today with east winds and fading northwest windswell. North facing breaks were still overhead. Air and water temps are very cold and look to stay that way. We have a weather system inbound for mid week - but rain chances look slim. Better chance of rain for the weekend - but that event is also a bit up in the air at the moment in terms of timing. For Tuesday, look for offshore winds in the morning with northwest windswell fading further. Should be very clean and up to head high. Could see an increase in south winds tomorrow afternoon as the front approaches. Wednesday winds (in the am) look light and variable. Next swell is due in on Wednesday/Thursday and that will push north facing breaks back up in the overhead range. Steep angle 300-330 - which has become somewhat of a fixture of our La Nina influenced Fall. No large swell forecast for the next seven days - yet plenty of waves to ride. Keep an eye on the winds through the weekend as these weather systems coming along will keep conditions highly variable. Know your spots and like always you'll score. Cya in the water.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Happy Thanksgiving. Beautiful day with offshore winds, cold temps and very small waves. Look for a repeat tomorrow, even smaller surf (if it can get much smaller). Storm system drops in late tomorrow, moving north to south overnight and through the day Saturday. Saturday will feature south to southwest winds and small waves. Sunday we'll see the swell kick back up into the head-overhead-double overhead range as a new northwest swell moves in on the heels of our weather maker. Northwest winds will accompany the passage of the storm - so anything facing west/northwest will be a mess. I'd get out tomorrow and make the best of the small stuff - and then find some protection from the winds on Sunday. cya in the water.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Updated Forecast

Say goodbye to water temps - 40kt nw winds will chill things off quite quickly overnight. That combined with morning temps somewhere between 20 and 30 degrees - break out your big wetsuits boys and girls. Water temp around 50 right now and dropping fast. Winds howling with front passage - Sierra is getting even more snow - will have a 10-12ft base probably by late Wednesday. Winds are forecast to subside, and turn northeast over the next two days. Surf will stay on the small windswell size. Although i am tracking a new pulse of north windswell that might give us a bit of a bump over the next 24-48 hrs. A bit uncertain if Wednesday will clean up much. The hope is that by Thursday morning - we'll have some fun conditions (very cold!) especially at northwest facing breaks. Weekend is still looking pretty small right now with another weather system due in late Friday into Saturday. cya in the water.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Holiday Week Forecast

Record cold temps headed our way mid week - with morning lows in the 20s in many of the wind protected valleys. 9ft of snow in past two days in the Sierra with more pounding them today. Who says La Nina can't bring a can of whoop ass? For us - NW windswell/short period stuff looks on tap - which has been the case now for a week or more. One of the unfortunate side effects of La Nina is the extreme northerly swell events as storms develop in the far upper north/east reaches of the Gulf of Alaska as they navigate the blocking high pressure that is set up in the Pacific. This trend most likely to continue all winter - with bouts of warmer/mid latitude storms/swell events with the high retrogrades far enough west to open the corridor. For this week - looks like the best swell/wind days will be Wednesday and Thanksgiving day with light winds/offshore and small NW windswell. Things to get really small by Friday - but then potentially pick up again next Saturday/Sunday as a new storm system comes ashore. Not really ideal conditions - but I do think Wed/Thurs are the days to chase it. Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Updated forecast

Pretty strong storm moving through tonight - nw winds will pick up hard and will blow all day Sunday making a mess of most spots. Should be plenty of swell in the water but hard to find clean spots to ride. Not an ideal few days coming up so make the best of what you can get. Cya in the water.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Updated Forecast

Our nice Fall weather exits by late tomorrow - incoming low pressure system swirling down the coast out of the Gulf of Alaska will bring on and off again rain, wind (snow at higher Bay Area peaks) and swell through Sunday. Not huge amounts of rain as this system doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with - but much much colder temps on the way. Expect steep angle (310 +) NW swell/windswell to kick up Friday and last through Monday. Probably on the ugly side with onshore winds likely for most of the period and swell of the shorter period variety. Look for solid size at nw facing breaks - especially Friday to Sunday - double overhead sets look likely at times. We might catch a break and get some lighter winds for the morning sessions - so keep an eye on the buoys and you might find some breaks to get wet. Bottom line is very cold weather on the way and unsettled conditions. Not ideal surfing weather - but if you know where to look - you can find some waves. cya in the water.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Hello Orion

Winter constellation Orion visible tonight in the eastern sky. Always a nice sight. Fall. Offshore winds are blowing 20-30kts at higher elevations. This should mix down to the surface overnight - lasting through Monday. Big shot of NW swell winds down overnight quickly. Probably look for deepwater heights of 6-7 ft at 11-13sec by sunrise. Windswell is on the rise too - given the strong north winds over the outer waters - so that might mix up the nw facing beach breaks. Look for consistent, but smaller nw swell most of next week with very clean conditions - especially mornings. Next chance of rain now looks like next Friday - as this high pressure ridge will move to the west and allow a low pressure system to drop down out of Alaska. Could be cool, wet and windy next weekend. Until then - enjoy the conditions. cya in the water.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Offshore winds/chilly nights & swell

Thanks to our girlfriend La Nina - look for offshore winds for the next 6-7 days with cold nights as high pressure clamps down on the West Coast and East Pacific/Gulf of AK. Current WNW swell will wind down overnight (from 290-310) and be replaced late Friday into Saturday by a new pulse of WNW swell (from 290-310) - pumping surf back up in the double overhead range at northwest facing breaks. Could see some bigger sets. That swell will fade out Sunday. More swell on tap for next week. Storm door is open - we're going to get the swell just not the weather with the blocking high pressure over us. Next hint of any rain would be around 8 days out from now - but that is quite uncertain at this point. So enjoy the run of nice days coming up. cya in the water.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Week Ahead

I love November. The surf, the sun angle, the lighting, the tourists are gone which makes driving to your favorite surf break more fun. If I could have one month all year in Nor Cal - it would be November. However, it most certainly isn't all dreamy today. NW winds chopping the hell out of things behind our rainy front which exited to the east overnight. Another storm is making it's way towards us - and rain should start in the north bay tomorrow afternoon. Small storm - out of here on Wednesday. Could see some really nice days starting around Thursday and lasting through Sunday. Back to back wnw swells should last through the week. Should see overhead to well overhead waves all week at north facing breaks - with smaller surf in the protected spots. Get through tomorrow and part of Wednesday and get some work done. Have dinner with the girlfriend, wife. Call your mom. Then go surf. cya in the water.

**LA NINA NOTE - after tonight's storm - high pressure to take up residence in the Gulf of Alaska and East Pacific - it's been expected and quite typical of a La Nina enhanced winter. So we can look for perhaps a prolonged period of offshore days coming up for the remainder of November. Any storms that do come along, will have to go around the high and down through BC and the Northwest. Good surfing weather - bad for snow pack and rainfall.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Larger wnw swell moves in tonight - should push northwest facing breaks back into the well overhead to (occasional) double overhead range for Friday and Saturday. Swell will fade somewhat on Sunday but still be on the larger side for stand out breaks. New run of northwest swell inbound for Monday/Tuesday - from 290-310 - kicking back up into the double overhead range again. Weak weather system coming in Friday/Saturday - chance of rain south. Stronger storm for Sunday should bring us light rain. Winds Friday and Saturday look light - a bit more onshore push on Sunday with the storm coming ashore. plenty of swell - nothing like November in Nor Cal. cya in the water.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

RIP Andy Irons

Just heard the shocking news that Andy Irons died. So sad - my thoughts and prayers to his family. Such an amazingly talented, gifted surfer. Loved to watch him ride waves.

17ft at 17 sec from 295

Doesn't get much bigger around here. Huge swell with offshore/clean conditions today and tomorrow. Epic. Get some if you can. cya in the water.

Monday, November 1, 2010

BOOM -33ft at 17- Papa buoy

Forerunners of tomorrows huge swell showing at Papa Buoy - 29-33 ft with long periods in the 17-20sec range. That's huge. It will be here tomorrow. Cya in the water and GO Giants!