Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Updated Forecast **SOLID LONG PERIOD

**FRIDAY AM - Just checked outer buoys - impressive long period swell from that extra tropical system - Ca Buoy showed 10 ft at 21 to 24 seconds last night. This energy is just showing way up north - 9ft at 20 seconds.

Solid nw swell still in the water this am - 8 + ft at 14 sec from 290. Still good for double overhead sets at nw facing breaks. Swell will wind down later today and Thursday. Long period forerunners from the extra tropical/typhoon swell may start to show at our more northern breaks late Thursday. This swell won't be quite as big as this past event due in part to the longer distance the swell will have traveled by the time it reaches our coast. Expect long lulls, but when the sets come - they will pack plenty of punch. This event will peak on Saturday with deep water swell in the 5-8 ft range with larger sets possible. Size and period will drop more on Sunday - but still be quite nice. Our heat wave breaks today - it's already much cooler at the coast and that trend will continue through the period. Fog at the coast in the mornings, light winds with more of an onshore flow in the afternoons. Plenty of waves to ride through Sunday. cya in the water.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Next swell loading up at SE Papa Buoy

Pretty solid swell hitting this morning. Winding down a bit this pm - but still around 8 ft at 12 seconds. Next swell is moving our way. SE Papa Buoy is showing 14-19 feet wtih periods in the 15-17 second range. This will be in here tomorrow morning for another large day of surf along nw facing breaks. Weather has been very tricky - dense fog at the coast yesterday and today - but has been pushed out quickly as high pressure continues to expand over the state. As the week goes on - we'll have a gradual cooling trend and a bit more onshore flow later in the week. But mornings look pretty nice for the next few days - with scorching hot temps inland. Looking out Friday to Sunday we'll have yet another long period nw swell (295-310) due in from an old typhoon that is presently extra tropical and moving through the West Pacific. This will be another well overhead event at nw facing breaks. Recap - plenty of swell all week - size will be up and down as different events fade, overlap, etc. NW facing breaks will have the most size all week. AM sessions look best for light winds. cya in the water.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Updated Forecast - "Big" headed our way

***SATURDAY NIGHT ***Next swell showing at outer SE Papa Buoy - 20 ft at 15 seconds. 450 miles out and tracking our way.....get ready.

First swell peaked overnight - a bit quicker than expected - deep water down to 4-5 at 11 seconds. The main event(s) - now slated for Sunday night through Tuesday. Two very strong swells headed our way. First one will be in here as mentioned late Sunday - might see a few forerunners very late in the afternoon. By Monday - look for deep water heights in the 8-12ft range 14-17 seconds. This will be good for double, triple, perhaps bigger sets at the nw facing breaks. This swell will be fading some Tuesday morning, however a new swell will quickly overlap. Next event forecast in the 6-10ft range, long periods etc. Some of the warmest days in recent memory start today and should last through the middle of next week. Very light offshore flow forecast all the way to the coast. We might see a very light sea breeze afternoons - but no fog. cya in the water.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Large Swell for the Weekend

First significant northwest swell of the season due in Sunday through Tuesday......
**WED UPDATE - Friday swell just starting to show at SE Papa Buoy - 9-10 ft at 15-17 second intervals. Look for swell decay inbound, but should roll in Friday with size forecast as predicted below.

Back to back northwest swells start Friday. First shot is forecast in the 4-5 ft range from 300+ with mid periods in the 13-15 second range. This should be good for solid overhead waves at good northwest exposures Friday and Saturday. **Late Sunday, the real juice rolls in - forecast at 11-12 ft at 16 sec from 295. This will be well overhead to double overhead (perhaps bigger) at northwest breaks. **Note this swell will actually be biggest and best Monday. At the same time, we're going to have near perfect Fall weather - very warm temps to the coast (hot inland) - and some form of light offshore flow as high pressure sets up to our east on Saturday, and then moves a bit more northeast for Sunday. Today - nw winds are howling and it looks like spring - tomorrow will be a transition day, but I suspect the ocean will still have quite a bit of lump and bump on it. Friday morning should begin to see a clean up. cya in the water.

Monday, September 20, 2010

NW swells and warm weather at weeks end

Small nw pulse peaking today - buoys showing 4-6 ft at 14 sec 290/300. Period drops tomorrow and swell fades out Wednesday. Windswell will be on the rise again - Tues/Wed as another low pressure system approaches the Pacific Northwest. This will increase the fog and onshore push. I'm tracking back to back nw swells for Sept 24 to Sept 28. Timing will be great as it looks like the end of the week thru the weekend will be sunny and warm - with perhaps some very light offshore flow all the way to the coast. A fall pattern is taking hold in the upper reaches of the North Pacific. Tues/Wed look like good days to get some work done, play with the kids, have dinner with the girlfriend/wife - and then get busy with some good surf weather come weeks end. cya in the water.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Updated Weekend Forecast***

Solid pulsing south swell filling in today/tonight. Came in with a bit more steam than forecast - super solid - 3.5 to 4 ft at 17sec (deepwater). Not showing at all spots equally strong - but some spots we're just going off this morning. We also have a mix of west swell - so beach breaks will probably stay peaky on Sunday. Look for sets a couple feet overhead at times. Storm slowed down some - but scheduled to roll through late tonight - very light amounts of rain expected. Look for light/variable winds Sunday morning - turning light west later in the day. **We also have our first northwest groundswell of the season due in here Monday/Tuesday. Right now looking at 4ft at 15 sec from 290 - Monday, period dropping to 13 seconds on Tuesday. So plenty of swell the next 2-3 days - winds not horrible either - especially in the morning. go surf - cya in the water.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Weekend Forecast/North Pacific Gets Busier

Low pressure system offshore scheduled to roll in here late tomorrow. Rain still looks likely from late Friday through Sunday - fairly light amounts the further south you go (south of the GG Bridge) - but north bay areas might see a half inch of rain. Further to our north this storm will be a good soaker. Just seeing a small pulse of West swell from this system today - 2-3 at 8-12 seconds - mixed in with a pulse of south swell - 2-3 at 15-17 seconds. Winds are onshore - but lighter this morning than they've been. Look for West swell to increase over the weekend - probably maxing out in the 4-6 ft range (deep water swell) at 8-11 seconds. South will max over the weekend too - staying around 3ft. As for the winds - look for light sw winds Friday, light south winds on Saturday and perhaps variable winds on Sunday morning. Further out in the Pacific - just passing under the Aleutians coming out of the Bering Sea - a stronger system is starting to take shape and aim at Nor Cal. This system will bring us our first "groundswell" of the early season. Nothing huge or epic - but longer period wnw swell than we've seen around these parts in a long while. I'll update that swell over the weekend. This event looks to run from around Sept 23 thru Sept 28 - swell from 299 to 304 degrees. So plenty of swell on tap the next couple days - check the winds, know your spots and you might score. cya in the water.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Here comes the rain....

Early season fall storm gathering strength offshore - slated to roll in here Friday thru Sunday. Look for rain potentially on and off starting Friday in the North Bay dragging south thru the Bay Area Sat/Sun. Still unclear on how much swell will come in with the weather - and also how much wind. More on that Wednesday/Thursday. Still tracking a good size south swell for late in the week too. Let's hope the winds don't hack it up. It's a good sign - things are starting to move in the North Pacific. Anticipating that first really good shot of groundswell - hopefully soon. cya in the water.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Forecast for Week Ahead

Watching two low pressure systems develop this week - one in the NE Pacific and the other out near the dateline. First system is fairly weak - but may generate some longer period windswell from the nw for later in the week. The next system - out west near the dateline is suppose to gain strength Wednesday to Friday of this week - and perhaps generate some mid period (12-14 sec) nw swell for the weekend. In addition to these systems - we have a decent shot of s/sw swell most of the week - getting bigger Thursday thru Saturday with peak deep water swell at 3ft 15-17 seconds. Probably best late Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately - we're back in a summer wind/fog pattern all week with w/wsw winds each day (all day) perhaps morning sessions will offer the "lightest" winds. Possible chance of rain next weekend too - but amounts to be super light. Watch the winds - surf early - more on the action in the North Pacific mid week. cya in the water.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Fog and onshore winds the rule today, with perhaps patchy fog over the weekend. Wind forecast is calling for "light to variable" winds Friday, Saturday and Sunday mornings. Just not much swell to go with it. Looks like windswell from 315 plus thru the period - short period (9 sec) stuff - maybe knee to chest high. Background traces of south swell. Long term looks a bit more promising from the south - with a swell forecast to start showing next Monday and perhaps lasting a few days into the week. The North Pacific is trying to get the party going - but high pressure is really locked down on the Pacific Basin - so everything that tracks west is getting shoved up into Alaska and then down through British Columbia. No real water trajectory - means no groundswell. However, the pattern continues to look more promising - just need something to kick into higher gear and get our Fall started in earnest. Hang in there, cya in the water.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

North and West Pacific Wake Up

Hope you enjoyed the past couple days of fine beach weather. We're already transitioning back to strong onshore winds as a low pressure system drops down today out of BC. This is an unseasonably strong low - and will drop temps as much as 20 degrees today and further cooling tomorrow. Chance of light rain/drizzle (especially at the coast) on Wednesday. In the long range - Tropical Storm Malou out in the West Pac is forecast to get caught in the westerlies and perhaps bring us some swell and weather our way - perhaps another 5-7 days out. But the overall pattern is getting more progressive - so hopefully we'll see some groundswell soon. For this week - it looks pretty windy/onshore. Small windswell and nothing from the south. Good week to get caught up on work. cya in the water.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

**Updated Labor Day Weekend

nw winds howling - windswell quickly building in size today. Winds are now forecast to turn offshore late today and for the morning. We'll see if that happens. If it does turn, could be nice Monday morning with the increasing windswell. But for today - i'd say find someplace protected, but anything south facing is going to be pretty small due to the short period nature of the swell. get what you can - cya in the water.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Nice pulse of NW windswell tonight - 4ft at 10 from 320. First time we've seen anything above 9 sec interval from the north in while. Past two days, pretty damn nice at the beach. Look for another morning of light/variable winds Friday. Fog is moving back towards us - and may be patchy in spots Friday morning. Look for more onshore/fog Saturday and Sunday - but we could still see light/variable winds (with fog) Saturday morning - more west in the winds for Sunday. Same thing on Labor Day/Monday. Swell wise - windswell the main source for the next few days - shoulder to head high, perhaps bigger at times at nw facing breaks. Very small south background swell to continue. We could see a warm up and return to some light offshore flow early next week. More on that late in the weekend. Still no sign of any significant swell in the North Pacific - however i am watching Typhoon 08w tracking NW past Japan on Friday - due to curve and go extratropical over the weekend. Pretty certain we won't get much swell from this system - but going to watch it. It's a good sign. The active phase of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is trying to get a toe hold in the far West Pacific. This is the pump that fuels Fall and Winter storm development - something we saw a lot of last winter with El Nino. With La Nina in force, we've been in the "inactive" phase of the MJO for months now - but with the change in the seasons, the pattern can change, break down. One thing is for certain - we have better days ahead in the months to come. cya in the water.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

September 1

Welcome to the 2010/2011 Fall/Winter surf season! Right on cue - we have a couple offshore mornings ahead - now we just need some actual swell. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week - especially at the coast. Look for ongoing north windwell and a small pulse of s/se swell which i dont think will show much due to the extreme angle of approach - 165-180. Warm today - winds might stay light most of the day - warmer still tomorrow - maybe a hint of a seabreeze late. Give yourself a pat on the back for surviving another summer in Central/Nor Cal. cya in the water.