Thursday, December 30, 2010

New Years Weekend Forecast

Current short/mid period windswell will ease into Friday.  Winds are suppose to turn offshore Friday morning - but not sure that will completely happen.  Still have a good push of northwest flow in the upper atmosphere.  Saturday looks like a better bet for really clean offshore conditions and a new west/northwest swell on the rise late in the day.  Looking for 8-10 ft sets at northwest facing breaks late Saturday.  Sunday and Monday that west/northwest swell will peak in the 8-12ft range with double/triple overhead sets at northwest facing breaks.   Winds are forecast to remain light/offshore both Sunday and Monday mornings.  We do have a weather system inbound New Years Eve into New Years Day - but it's not suppose to change the wind pattern and only bring us light rain.  So  - plenty to ride the next couple days - just check your winds.  cya in the water.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

18ft at 10 from 310

Swell has jumped way up - but remains only a big windswell event given last night's and today's winds.  Should subside overnight.  Protected breaks might hold some options tomorrow - check the winds and buoys early.  cya in the water.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

UPDATED FORECAST

Major winter storm about to slam the region tonight.  Winds are ramping up and will be blowing gale force from the south/southeast overnight.  By the time the storm exits tomorrow - winds will shift strongly to the northwest and should blow from that direction all day Wednesday and Thursday.  Look for conditions to improve Friday and into the weekend with northeast winds Friday morning and "variable" winds on Saturday.  Swell wise - 6ft at 10 sec from 290 right now - basically windswell and that will jump up overnight into Thursday in the 5-8 ft range (deepwater swell).  Friday and Saturday actually look pretty clean - with smaller surf.  Probably some left over storm sickness on the surface Friday - however Saturday should feature pretty nice conditions.  Get through the next couple days and things should be good after.  cya in the water.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Christmas Eve/Day Forecast

Winds remained pretty calm today - very light south to southeast flow.  Mix of SW windswell and NW windswell in the water - about head high - a tad bigger at northwest facing breaks.  Look for one more morning (Friday) of light winds and then a strong, fast moving storm comes ashore for Friday night to Saturday night with heavy rain and strong S/SE winds.  I think Friday looks good - Saturday probably a bust.  Winds turn W/NW on Sunday - with increasing swell - but not certain it will clean up that fast - still worth a check.  Merry Christmas and cya in the water.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Week Ahead & Happy Winter Solstice!

Another storm set to come ashore this afternoon - lasting through Wednesday.  Great time to hit the Sierra if you board or ski - huge amount of snow up there and that will continue most of the week.  As for the surf - deep water is running 7ft at 12 from 295 today with strong SE winds 20-25 kts already blowing in advance of the surface front.  As for winds - look for variable winds potentially tomorrow morning - and then things should stay out of the south/southeast the rest of the week as more fronts move through.  Look for a mix of west/sw swell all week with most days overhead at north facing breaks - smaller elsewhere.  By Saturday should see a larger west swell come ashore with a big storm system.  More on that mid week.  So, Wednesday looks possible in the morning and then find spots that like south/southeast winds and you'll have something to ride.  cya in the water

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Updated Forecast

As predicted the north pacific storm door has opened and looks to stay open through most of next week. Up here in Tahoe it's dumping snow above 7000 ft - rain below. Look for south winds through at least Wednesday. Bigger surf 8-12 ft deepwater looks likely for Tuesday and Wednesday but don't count on it being that clean. In short, these are stormy times my friends. Keep an eye on winds and you might find some moments here and there. Cya in the water.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Week Ahead

New west swell filling in today - 6 ft at 10 from around 240.  Should stick around through Tuesday with a bigger west/northwest swell to show on Wednesday with surf back up in the 6-10 ft range (deepwater) - pushing to double overhead at north facing breaks.  Winds looks to turn onshore overnight into Tuesday as a storm system comes ashore.  Thursday looks nice with east winds forecast and probably shoulder to head high surf.  More swell for the weekend forecast but looks like the North Pacific is gonna unleash a can of whoop ass on us with rain, south winds, copious amounts of snow in the Sierra starting as early as Friday night and lasting well into the following week.  I'd say get somewhere protected on Wednesday (northwest winds due) and then hit it Thursday.  Keep an eye on the winds over the upcoming weekend and you might see a few windows.  Forecast still needs to iron out the details.  I'm in Tahoe Dec 17-20 and won't be updating this forecast.  Have a great week, cya in water.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Down in Los Angeles - actually caught uncrowded Malibu this morning with some small West swell wrap. Not sure where everyone was - i did expect a cast of thousands and was quite happy to be alone with my thoughts at 3rd point. For Nor Cal - weekend looks like smallish swell - with light winds - potentially pretty nice weather. Probably waist to chest high with some bigger sets possible at north facing breaks. Enjoy it - because models are hinting at perhaps a very unsettled pattern starting next Tuesday and lasting through the following weekend. cya in the water.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Week Ahead

Unsettled weather to continue through most of the week. Look for a window Tuesday morning - but then more southerly winds should be the norm for Wednesday, Thursday with more rain/storms until Friday. Possibly easing off as we go into the weekend. Swell stays small tomorrow as we have a mix of small northwest windswell and mid size southwest remnant storm swell which was generated by our weekend storm. New, much larger northwest swell looks to come in Wednesday to Friday - biggest Thursday with swell jumping back up in the double and triple overhead range and good northwest facing breaks. So, mid week on - plenty of surf - just check the winds and you might find a few windows. cya in the water

Friday, December 3, 2010

Quick Update for Sunday -

forecast is now calling for fairly heavy rains Sunday and high winds - especially near the coast. so keep an eye on it.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Weekend Forecast

New NW swell is peaking overnight - presently 9.9 ft at 14 sec from 310 - pretty solid but a steep approach. Look for this swell to wind down overnight. Friday should feature light to variable winds - could fluctuate between northeast/east/southeast during the day as we have a weak front moving through the region tonight. Rain chances look to pick up again Saturday/Sunday - but winds are really forecast to remain light - directionally speaking could see a wide range of wind directions given the wind movement in the upper atmosphere and low pressure systems diving through. Key word is light - so check the buoys/local wind models each morning and you might score. Swell looks to wind down Friday/Saturday - pick back up again on Sunday in the overhead range. So nothing major - but certainly waves on tap. cya in the water.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Updated Forecast

Super clean conditions today with east winds and fading northwest windswell. North facing breaks were still overhead. Air and water temps are very cold and look to stay that way. We have a weather system inbound for mid week - but rain chances look slim. Better chance of rain for the weekend - but that event is also a bit up in the air at the moment in terms of timing. For Tuesday, look for offshore winds in the morning with northwest windswell fading further. Should be very clean and up to head high. Could see an increase in south winds tomorrow afternoon as the front approaches. Wednesday winds (in the am) look light and variable. Next swell is due in on Wednesday/Thursday and that will push north facing breaks back up in the overhead range. Steep angle 300-330 - which has become somewhat of a fixture of our La Nina influenced Fall. No large swell forecast for the next seven days - yet plenty of waves to ride. Keep an eye on the winds through the weekend as these weather systems coming along will keep conditions highly variable. Know your spots and like always you'll score. Cya in the water.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Happy Thanksgiving. Beautiful day with offshore winds, cold temps and very small waves. Look for a repeat tomorrow, even smaller surf (if it can get much smaller). Storm system drops in late tomorrow, moving north to south overnight and through the day Saturday. Saturday will feature south to southwest winds and small waves. Sunday we'll see the swell kick back up into the head-overhead-double overhead range as a new northwest swell moves in on the heels of our weather maker. Northwest winds will accompany the passage of the storm - so anything facing west/northwest will be a mess. I'd get out tomorrow and make the best of the small stuff - and then find some protection from the winds on Sunday. cya in the water.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Updated Forecast

Say goodbye to water temps - 40kt nw winds will chill things off quite quickly overnight. That combined with morning temps somewhere between 20 and 30 degrees - break out your big wetsuits boys and girls. Water temp around 50 right now and dropping fast. Winds howling with front passage - Sierra is getting even more snow - will have a 10-12ft base probably by late Wednesday. Winds are forecast to subside, and turn northeast over the next two days. Surf will stay on the small windswell size. Although i am tracking a new pulse of north windswell that might give us a bit of a bump over the next 24-48 hrs. A bit uncertain if Wednesday will clean up much. The hope is that by Thursday morning - we'll have some fun conditions (very cold!) especially at northwest facing breaks. Weekend is still looking pretty small right now with another weather system due in late Friday into Saturday. cya in the water.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Holiday Week Forecast

Record cold temps headed our way mid week - with morning lows in the 20s in many of the wind protected valleys. 9ft of snow in past two days in the Sierra with more pounding them today. Who says La Nina can't bring a can of whoop ass? For us - NW windswell/short period stuff looks on tap - which has been the case now for a week or more. One of the unfortunate side effects of La Nina is the extreme northerly swell events as storms develop in the far upper north/east reaches of the Gulf of Alaska as they navigate the blocking high pressure that is set up in the Pacific. This trend most likely to continue all winter - with bouts of warmer/mid latitude storms/swell events with the high retrogrades far enough west to open the corridor. For this week - looks like the best swell/wind days will be Wednesday and Thanksgiving day with light winds/offshore and small NW windswell. Things to get really small by Friday - but then potentially pick up again next Saturday/Sunday as a new storm system comes ashore. Not really ideal conditions - but I do think Wed/Thurs are the days to chase it. Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Updated forecast

Pretty strong storm moving through tonight - nw winds will pick up hard and will blow all day Sunday making a mess of most spots. Should be plenty of swell in the water but hard to find clean spots to ride. Not an ideal few days coming up so make the best of what you can get. Cya in the water.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Updated Forecast

Our nice Fall weather exits by late tomorrow - incoming low pressure system swirling down the coast out of the Gulf of Alaska will bring on and off again rain, wind (snow at higher Bay Area peaks) and swell through Sunday. Not huge amounts of rain as this system doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with - but much much colder temps on the way. Expect steep angle (310 +) NW swell/windswell to kick up Friday and last through Monday. Probably on the ugly side with onshore winds likely for most of the period and swell of the shorter period variety. Look for solid size at nw facing breaks - especially Friday to Sunday - double overhead sets look likely at times. We might catch a break and get some lighter winds for the morning sessions - so keep an eye on the buoys and you might find some breaks to get wet. Bottom line is very cold weather on the way and unsettled conditions. Not ideal surfing weather - but if you know where to look - you can find some waves. cya in the water.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Hello Orion

Winter constellation Orion visible tonight in the eastern sky. Always a nice sight. Fall. Offshore winds are blowing 20-30kts at higher elevations. This should mix down to the surface overnight - lasting through Monday. Big shot of NW swell winds down overnight quickly. Probably look for deepwater heights of 6-7 ft at 11-13sec by sunrise. Windswell is on the rise too - given the strong north winds over the outer waters - so that might mix up the nw facing beach breaks. Look for consistent, but smaller nw swell most of next week with very clean conditions - especially mornings. Next chance of rain now looks like next Friday - as this high pressure ridge will move to the west and allow a low pressure system to drop down out of Alaska. Could be cool, wet and windy next weekend. Until then - enjoy the conditions. cya in the water.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Offshore winds/chilly nights & swell

Thanks to our girlfriend La Nina - look for offshore winds for the next 6-7 days with cold nights as high pressure clamps down on the West Coast and East Pacific/Gulf of AK. Current WNW swell will wind down overnight (from 290-310) and be replaced late Friday into Saturday by a new pulse of WNW swell (from 290-310) - pumping surf back up in the double overhead range at northwest facing breaks. Could see some bigger sets. That swell will fade out Sunday. More swell on tap for next week. Storm door is open - we're going to get the swell just not the weather with the blocking high pressure over us. Next hint of any rain would be around 8 days out from now - but that is quite uncertain at this point. So enjoy the run of nice days coming up. cya in the water.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Week Ahead

I love November. The surf, the sun angle, the lighting, the tourists are gone which makes driving to your favorite surf break more fun. If I could have one month all year in Nor Cal - it would be November. However, it most certainly isn't all dreamy today. NW winds chopping the hell out of things behind our rainy front which exited to the east overnight. Another storm is making it's way towards us - and rain should start in the north bay tomorrow afternoon. Small storm - out of here on Wednesday. Could see some really nice days starting around Thursday and lasting through Sunday. Back to back wnw swells should last through the week. Should see overhead to well overhead waves all week at north facing breaks - with smaller surf in the protected spots. Get through tomorrow and part of Wednesday and get some work done. Have dinner with the girlfriend, wife. Call your mom. Then go surf. cya in the water.

**LA NINA NOTE - after tonight's storm - high pressure to take up residence in the Gulf of Alaska and East Pacific - it's been expected and quite typical of a La Nina enhanced winter. So we can look for perhaps a prolonged period of offshore days coming up for the remainder of November. Any storms that do come along, will have to go around the high and down through BC and the Northwest. Good surfing weather - bad for snow pack and rainfall.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Larger wnw swell moves in tonight - should push northwest facing breaks back into the well overhead to (occasional) double overhead range for Friday and Saturday. Swell will fade somewhat on Sunday but still be on the larger side for stand out breaks. New run of northwest swell inbound for Monday/Tuesday - from 290-310 - kicking back up into the double overhead range again. Weak weather system coming in Friday/Saturday - chance of rain south. Stronger storm for Sunday should bring us light rain. Winds Friday and Saturday look light - a bit more onshore push on Sunday with the storm coming ashore. plenty of swell - nothing like November in Nor Cal. cya in the water.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

RIP Andy Irons

Just heard the shocking news that Andy Irons died. So sad - my thoughts and prayers to his family. Such an amazingly talented, gifted surfer. Loved to watch him ride waves.

17ft at 17 sec from 295

Doesn't get much bigger around here. Huge swell with offshore/clean conditions today and tomorrow. Epic. Get some if you can. cya in the water.

Monday, November 1, 2010

BOOM -33ft at 17- Papa buoy

Forerunners of tomorrows huge swell showing at Papa Buoy - 29-33 ft with long periods in the 17-20sec range. That's huge. It will be here tomorrow. Cya in the water and GO Giants!

Saturday, October 30, 2010

EXTRA LARGE SWELL FOR TUES/WED

Huge storm winding up tonight in the North Pacific. Impressive winds are evident. This storm will create our largest swell event so far this fall - with deep water wave heights on order of 15-20 ft this coming Tuesday/Wednesday. Nice weather should accompany this swell event. Sunny skies, light winds forecast, perhaps even some offshore flow. Before then, look for fun size waves at nw facing breaks with light morning winds. Get out and get some. cya in the water.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Papa Buoy 33ft at 14 seconds last evening

Large swell developing out 600 miles - Papa buoy showing some impressive readings overnight (20-30ft). That is our inbound swell for Friday/Saturday - being whipped up by this offshore storm which is slowly making it's way towards the coast. Rain has been delayed some, as the storm as been running into drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Should finally spread rain over the Bay Area Friday with showers likely on Saturday. Winds right now aren't bad - blowing southeast. Shorter period windswell is in the water - also created by the storm offshore. Look for ENE winds on Friday in the morning - turning south for Saturday/Sunday. Should be plenty of size on tap Friday and Saturday at nw facing breaks. Check the winds. cya in the water.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

8@12 from 310 - Rain inbound

Big nw swell winding down today. Winds are offshore this morning. Storm is inbound and will spread rain over our region Thursday into Friday - with scattered showers all weekend as another system moves through. Look for variable winds Thursday morning and then ENE winds on Friday morning. So not horrible. However, on the weekend winds will blow south both days as the flow aloft remains in a southerly direction. Swell will climb back up in the double overhead range (6-10ft deepwater) by Friday - and then slowly fade over the weekend. Thursday/Friday mornings could be ok if the winds stay light. Plenty of swell sticking around - watch the weather systems and winds via the weather links on this blog and you'll find some spots. cya in the water.

Monday, October 25, 2010

12@14FT

As forecast, large WNW swell hitting this morning. Bigger to our north - on order of 18-20 ft - light nw winds on it - so making a mess of things at nw facing breaks. Better conditions at sheltered spots. Next few days will feature dry weather, flow will be light nw or even ne at the surface. Swell will stick around Tuesday and start to wind down. Another large storm is taking aim at us for Thursday to Saturday - with more rain, wind and probably a large swell train to arrive after the main rain event. So next 48 hrs will probably be your best window to get some surf. Cya in the water.

Friday, October 22, 2010

LARGE SWELL MONDAY/RAIN ALL WEEKEND

Deep water swell running 6ft at 12 from 300 this morning and 1.8 at 17 from 195. Large and powerful storm is lining up for arrival late Saturday/through Sunday - with a plume of moisture stretching all the way across the Pacific to Asia. Depending on where this storm comes ashore will determine how much rain we receive. North Bay looks to be the prime target with 2-4 inches of rain forecast. This storm is going to whip up a powerful West swell - which will come in on Monday - with deepwater heights in excess of 15ft. The first real significant swell of the Fall. We will have south winds right through Sunday changing to west/then northwest for Monday and Tuesday. A real messy start to the week. A brief break - and then looks like next week around Wednesday we'll have another series of storms hitting. Old Man Winter knocking early on our door. Keep an eye on the winds - know your spots and you might find some waves. Plenty of swell on tap for the next 5-7 days - just big changes in size day to day. cya in the water.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Rain and swell inbound



Sunset pic from the Mexican Coast last week.....but that seems so long ago now....We have inbound storms for Thursday to Sunday - so i would say get out and enjoy Wednesday if you can - probably the last nice wind/weather day we'll have. Onshore flow will pick up on Thursday - while the weekend is looking wet as a strong system comes ashore with rain very likely in the North Bay - lesser amounts south. Winds will veer ssw/to west from Thur/Sun - but wind speeds might not be that strong allowing for some sessions. Have to wait and see. Look for decent size 7-9ft from 15-13 seconds (290 to 300) from Thur/Sat - good for well overhead and bigger at nw facing breaks. Tracking a potentially extra large swell event for Monday/Tuesday (deepwater 17-18ft) but this is just a model forecast right now and only worth watching for confirmation as the weekend comes up. Tomorrow am for sure - get out and get some - mid period windswell in the water at 6ft 11-12 seconds. cya in the water.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Updated forecast Week of 10-18

Back from a week in southern Mexico chasing sw swells. Good times for sure. Around these parts very active storm pattern throughout the Pacific Basin will continue to send pulses of mid period wnw swells our way for shoulder to head high surf through Wednesday. Then, look for a larger wnw swell to charge the coast late Wednesday through Friday with deep water swell in the 6-10 ft range. Right now more storms and swells look to line up until the end of October. I'll update more mid week. Winds look light to variable for am sessions this week but probably onshore in the afternoons. Wind patterns are a bit unpredictable this week with so many low pressure systems offshore. Also looking at perhaps our first strong rain event of the fall for next weekend - will update that around Wednesday. Check the winds and know your breaks and you might find some fun waves this week. Cya in the water .

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Weekend Forecast - Fun Surf, Nice conditions

New mid period swell filling in tonight - deep water at 3-4 ft at 11 from 300-320. Look for size to slowly increase over the next couple days - probably biggest Sunday/Monday when size at nw facing breaks will be overhead on the sets. Weather/wind pattern looks pretty nice, northeast to calm winds in the mornings. Warmer temps at the coast. Really ideal Fall conditions coming up. **i am off to Mexico to chase next weeks inbound SW swell action - so i won't update this blog until Monday Oct 18. Have a great weekend/week ahead - cya in the water.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Updated Forecast - wk of 10-4

Solid northwest swell continues this morning - 8 ft at 14 sec from 305. Winds unfortunately are howling out of the nw as we have a strong low pressure system descending upon us. Water temps tumbling some, down to 53 now. We have a slight chance of showers through mid week as the aforementioned low will drop down and park itself just south of Monterey for most of the week as a closed cut off low. This could bring us some southeast to offshore winds mid week. Look for strong swell to continue through the period from the n/nw and also a series of decent late season southwest swells as well. Plenty of swell on tap - just check the winds each day and know your breaks and you might get lucky. The pattern we're in this week is extremely unpredictable right now with the cut off low. They tend to have a mind of their own. One thing is for certain - we have plenty of surf. cya in the water.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Updated Forecast **SOLID LONG PERIOD

**FRIDAY AM - Just checked outer buoys - impressive long period swell from that extra tropical system - Ca Buoy showed 10 ft at 21 to 24 seconds last night. This energy is just showing way up north - 9ft at 20 seconds.

Solid nw swell still in the water this am - 8 + ft at 14 sec from 290. Still good for double overhead sets at nw facing breaks. Swell will wind down later today and Thursday. Long period forerunners from the extra tropical/typhoon swell may start to show at our more northern breaks late Thursday. This swell won't be quite as big as this past event due in part to the longer distance the swell will have traveled by the time it reaches our coast. Expect long lulls, but when the sets come - they will pack plenty of punch. This event will peak on Saturday with deep water swell in the 5-8 ft range with larger sets possible. Size and period will drop more on Sunday - but still be quite nice. Our heat wave breaks today - it's already much cooler at the coast and that trend will continue through the period. Fog at the coast in the mornings, light winds with more of an onshore flow in the afternoons. Plenty of waves to ride through Sunday. cya in the water.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Next swell loading up at SE Papa Buoy

Pretty solid swell hitting this morning. Winding down a bit this pm - but still around 8 ft at 12 seconds. Next swell is moving our way. SE Papa Buoy is showing 14-19 feet wtih periods in the 15-17 second range. This will be in here tomorrow morning for another large day of surf along nw facing breaks. Weather has been very tricky - dense fog at the coast yesterday and today - but has been pushed out quickly as high pressure continues to expand over the state. As the week goes on - we'll have a gradual cooling trend and a bit more onshore flow later in the week. But mornings look pretty nice for the next few days - with scorching hot temps inland. Looking out Friday to Sunday we'll have yet another long period nw swell (295-310) due in from an old typhoon that is presently extra tropical and moving through the West Pacific. This will be another well overhead event at nw facing breaks. Recap - plenty of swell all week - size will be up and down as different events fade, overlap, etc. NW facing breaks will have the most size all week. AM sessions look best for light winds. cya in the water.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Updated Forecast - "Big" headed our way

***SATURDAY NIGHT ***Next swell showing at outer SE Papa Buoy - 20 ft at 15 seconds. 450 miles out and tracking our way.....get ready.

First swell peaked overnight - a bit quicker than expected - deep water down to 4-5 at 11 seconds. The main event(s) - now slated for Sunday night through Tuesday. Two very strong swells headed our way. First one will be in here as mentioned late Sunday - might see a few forerunners very late in the afternoon. By Monday - look for deep water heights in the 8-12ft range 14-17 seconds. This will be good for double, triple, perhaps bigger sets at the nw facing breaks. This swell will be fading some Tuesday morning, however a new swell will quickly overlap. Next event forecast in the 6-10ft range, long periods etc. Some of the warmest days in recent memory start today and should last through the middle of next week. Very light offshore flow forecast all the way to the coast. We might see a very light sea breeze afternoons - but no fog. cya in the water.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Large Swell for the Weekend



First significant northwest swell of the season due in Sunday through Tuesday......
**WED UPDATE - Friday swell just starting to show at SE Papa Buoy - 9-10 ft at 15-17 second intervals. Look for swell decay inbound, but should roll in Friday with size forecast as predicted below.

Back to back northwest swells start Friday. First shot is forecast in the 4-5 ft range from 300+ with mid periods in the 13-15 second range. This should be good for solid overhead waves at good northwest exposures Friday and Saturday. **Late Sunday, the real juice rolls in - forecast at 11-12 ft at 16 sec from 295. This will be well overhead to double overhead (perhaps bigger) at northwest breaks. **Note this swell will actually be biggest and best Monday. At the same time, we're going to have near perfect Fall weather - very warm temps to the coast (hot inland) - and some form of light offshore flow as high pressure sets up to our east on Saturday, and then moves a bit more northeast for Sunday. Today - nw winds are howling and it looks like spring - tomorrow will be a transition day, but I suspect the ocean will still have quite a bit of lump and bump on it. Friday morning should begin to see a clean up. cya in the water.

Monday, September 20, 2010

NW swells and warm weather at weeks end

Small nw pulse peaking today - buoys showing 4-6 ft at 14 sec 290/300. Period drops tomorrow and swell fades out Wednesday. Windswell will be on the rise again - Tues/Wed as another low pressure system approaches the Pacific Northwest. This will increase the fog and onshore push. I'm tracking back to back nw swells for Sept 24 to Sept 28. Timing will be great as it looks like the end of the week thru the weekend will be sunny and warm - with perhaps some very light offshore flow all the way to the coast. A fall pattern is taking hold in the upper reaches of the North Pacific. Tues/Wed look like good days to get some work done, play with the kids, have dinner with the girlfriend/wife - and then get busy with some good surf weather come weeks end. cya in the water.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Updated Weekend Forecast***

Solid pulsing south swell filling in today/tonight. Came in with a bit more steam than forecast - super solid - 3.5 to 4 ft at 17sec (deepwater). Not showing at all spots equally strong - but some spots we're just going off this morning. We also have a mix of west swell - so beach breaks will probably stay peaky on Sunday. Look for sets a couple feet overhead at times. Storm slowed down some - but scheduled to roll through late tonight - very light amounts of rain expected. Look for light/variable winds Sunday morning - turning light west later in the day. **We also have our first northwest groundswell of the season due in here Monday/Tuesday. Right now looking at 4ft at 15 sec from 290 - Monday, period dropping to 13 seconds on Tuesday. So plenty of swell the next 2-3 days - winds not horrible either - especially in the morning. go surf - cya in the water.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Weekend Forecast/North Pacific Gets Busier

Low pressure system offshore scheduled to roll in here late tomorrow. Rain still looks likely from late Friday through Sunday - fairly light amounts the further south you go (south of the GG Bridge) - but north bay areas might see a half inch of rain. Further to our north this storm will be a good soaker. Just seeing a small pulse of West swell from this system today - 2-3 at 8-12 seconds - mixed in with a pulse of south swell - 2-3 at 15-17 seconds. Winds are onshore - but lighter this morning than they've been. Look for West swell to increase over the weekend - probably maxing out in the 4-6 ft range (deep water swell) at 8-11 seconds. South will max over the weekend too - staying around 3ft. As for the winds - look for light sw winds Friday, light south winds on Saturday and perhaps variable winds on Sunday morning. Further out in the Pacific - just passing under the Aleutians coming out of the Bering Sea - a stronger system is starting to take shape and aim at Nor Cal. This system will bring us our first "groundswell" of the early season. Nothing huge or epic - but longer period wnw swell than we've seen around these parts in a long while. I'll update that swell over the weekend. This event looks to run from around Sept 23 thru Sept 28 - swell from 299 to 304 degrees. So plenty of swell on tap the next couple days - check the winds, know your spots and you might score. cya in the water.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Here comes the rain....



Early season fall storm gathering strength offshore - slated to roll in here Friday thru Sunday. Look for rain potentially on and off starting Friday in the North Bay dragging south thru the Bay Area Sat/Sun. Still unclear on how much swell will come in with the weather - and also how much wind. More on that Wednesday/Thursday. Still tracking a good size south swell for late in the week too. Let's hope the winds don't hack it up. It's a good sign - things are starting to move in the North Pacific. Anticipating that first really good shot of groundswell - hopefully soon. cya in the water.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Forecast for Week Ahead

Watching two low pressure systems develop this week - one in the NE Pacific and the other out near the dateline. First system is fairly weak - but may generate some longer period windswell from the nw for later in the week. The next system - out west near the dateline is suppose to gain strength Wednesday to Friday of this week - and perhaps generate some mid period (12-14 sec) nw swell for the weekend. In addition to these systems - we have a decent shot of s/sw swell most of the week - getting bigger Thursday thru Saturday with peak deep water swell at 3ft 15-17 seconds. Probably best late Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately - we're back in a summer wind/fog pattern all week with w/wsw winds each day (all day) perhaps morning sessions will offer the "lightest" winds. Possible chance of rain next weekend too - but amounts to be super light. Watch the winds - surf early - more on the action in the North Pacific mid week. cya in the water.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Fog and onshore winds the rule today, with perhaps patchy fog over the weekend. Wind forecast is calling for "light to variable" winds Friday, Saturday and Sunday mornings. Just not much swell to go with it. Looks like windswell from 315 plus thru the period - short period (9 sec) stuff - maybe knee to chest high. Background traces of south swell. Long term looks a bit more promising from the south - with a swell forecast to start showing next Monday and perhaps lasting a few days into the week. The North Pacific is trying to get the party going - but high pressure is really locked down on the Pacific Basin - so everything that tracks west is getting shoved up into Alaska and then down through British Columbia. No real water trajectory - means no groundswell. However, the pattern continues to look more promising - just need something to kick into higher gear and get our Fall started in earnest. Hang in there, cya in the water.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

North and West Pacific Wake Up

Hope you enjoyed the past couple days of fine beach weather. We're already transitioning back to strong onshore winds as a low pressure system drops down today out of BC. This is an unseasonably strong low - and will drop temps as much as 20 degrees today and further cooling tomorrow. Chance of light rain/drizzle (especially at the coast) on Wednesday. In the long range - Tropical Storm Malou out in the West Pac is forecast to get caught in the westerlies and perhaps bring us some swell and weather our way - perhaps another 5-7 days out. But the overall pattern is getting more progressive - so hopefully we'll see some groundswell soon. For this week - it looks pretty windy/onshore. Small windswell and nothing from the south. Good week to get caught up on work. cya in the water.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

**Updated Labor Day Weekend

nw winds howling - windswell quickly building in size today. Winds are now forecast to turn offshore late today and for the morning. We'll see if that happens. If it does turn, could be nice Monday morning with the increasing windswell. But for today - i'd say find someplace protected, but anything south facing is going to be pretty small due to the short period nature of the swell. get what you can - cya in the water.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Nice pulse of NW windswell tonight - 4ft at 10 from 320. First time we've seen anything above 9 sec interval from the north in while. Past two days, pretty damn nice at the beach. Look for another morning of light/variable winds Friday. Fog is moving back towards us - and may be patchy in spots Friday morning. Look for more onshore/fog Saturday and Sunday - but we could still see light/variable winds (with fog) Saturday morning - more west in the winds for Sunday. Same thing on Labor Day/Monday. Swell wise - windswell the main source for the next few days - shoulder to head high, perhaps bigger at times at nw facing breaks. Very small south background swell to continue. We could see a warm up and return to some light offshore flow early next week. More on that late in the weekend. Still no sign of any significant swell in the North Pacific - however i am watching Typhoon 08w tracking NW past Japan on Friday - due to curve and go extratropical over the weekend. Pretty certain we won't get much swell from this system - but going to watch it. It's a good sign. The active phase of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is trying to get a toe hold in the far West Pacific. This is the pump that fuels Fall and Winter storm development - something we saw a lot of last winter with El Nino. With La Nina in force, we've been in the "inactive" phase of the MJO for months now - but with the change in the seasons, the pattern can change, break down. One thing is for certain - we have better days ahead in the months to come. cya in the water.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

September 1

Welcome to the 2010/2011 Fall/Winter surf season! Right on cue - we have a couple offshore mornings ahead - now we just need some actual swell. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week - especially at the coast. Look for ongoing north windwell and a small pulse of s/se swell which i dont think will show much due to the extreme angle of approach - 165-180. Warm today - winds might stay light most of the day - warmer still tomorrow - maybe a hint of a seabreeze late. Give yourself a pat on the back for surviving another summer in Central/Nor Cal. cya in the water.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Week Ahead

Almost Sept 1 - the official start to the Fall/Winter surfing season in Northern California. It's like Christmas for those of us who have endured a long, foggy, onshore summer. Winds are going to cooperate with the turning of the calendar month too - with light offshore flow (**mornings) forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Very small surf on tap - minimal south swell and north windswell. All eyes to the North Pacific for any hint of a significant pattern change and some swell producing storms. Watching the models for perhaps a low pressure system to get busy next weekend - but that's just hopeful thinking for the moment. We are going into a season ruled by La Nina. We may see less storm development in the West Pacific and more storms in the higher latitudes of the East Pacific as they come around blocking high pressure. This means higher angle swells (300-330), probably fewer large days like we had last season. But La Nina can mean very good surfing conditions with offshore winds for days. Colder weather, less rain (not good). We'll have to see how things unfold. In the meantime, get out and enjoy the nice weather and i'll keep you posted on any developments. cya in the water.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Weekend Forecast

**Great news SE Papa Buoy and CA Buoys are back online for the winter. Just in time! Look for s/sw swell to continue through the weekend - probably in the shoulder high range at most breaks - perhaps bigger sets now and then. NW windswell will be on the rise tomorrow - as NW winds increase offshore. Looking for this windswell to peak Saturday with head high, bigger at times - but conditions will likely be a mess at nw facing breaks Sat/Sun due to the wind. Low pressure is moving down from the Gulf of Alaska - and with it winds and fog will increase. This system will be out of here by early next week - and we might see a warm up next Tuesday - but right now it doesn't look like an offshore/hot event like this past event. Definitely seeing an early Autumn pattern starting to take shape - which is a good sign. No swell producing storms yet - but September is getting closer so should see things change even more in the upper latitudes as we move into the month. Check the winds this weekend - pick your surf breaks accordingly. ***FRIDAY - UPDATE - Storm inbound Saturday - NW winds have already approached gale force speeds in our outer waters. Chance of rain late Saturday - super light amounts. cya in the water.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Good weather fades, Significant South hits

Hope you got out in the past 2 days - it was sick. Significant south swell just starting to show this morning - deep water already 3ft plus at 190-200 - look for this swell to build during the day - probably peaking tomorrow with deepwater heights in the 5ft range - large for around these parts! Unfortunately - southern surge of fog and winds is presently moving north from Monterey. Offshore flow is gone for now. Look for onshore winds and fog to return over the next few days. By the weekend - a very early season gulf low will drop down out of BC - lowering inland temps by 30 degrees over the past couple of days - and bringing with it a very slight chance of drizzle/rain. So winds will probably stay west/northwest from Thursday on. But get to places that like big souths and have some protection from the winds and you might just score. Cya in the water.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

It's ON!

Sunny at the beaches this afternoon with light winds - when was the last time anyone saw that?? South swell peaking today - some nice size in the water - still running 3ft at 17 (deepwater swell). Will wind down tomorrow. Bigger south hits Tues-Thurs - with sets head high + at breaks with a s/sw exposure. Next two days look like sick beach days - with the warmest Tuesday - with EAST WINDS forecast. Hot inland, warm to the coast - yes there is a God and he likes Nor Cal surfers in the Fall. Do enjoy this upcoming couple days as we're going to cool off again late in the week with a return to fog and onshore winds. We might still be lucky on Wednesday. cya in the water.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Update - Offshore Winds Mon/Tues

Winds are howling tonight. Blowing northwest - turning northerly during the day on Sunday. Early season storm moved through the Pac NW and is now moving into the northern Great Basin. This will shift the winds offshore for Monday/Tuesday with much warmer temps. In fact probably the warmest it's been since Mid June. Still hard to say if this wind event will make it all the way to the coast - and give us our first offshore of the early Fall. For sure the fog will be scoured out - have to wait and see. South swell is peaking tonight/Sunday - 3-4 ft at 17 sec (deepwater). Mix of north windswell in the water tomorrow too - 3-5 at 8-10 secs. It could be a total mess at OB in the morning with the winds. If the gradient relaxes overnight - it might be marginally clean early - but the smart money is on a big mess. The sun might be out - so you can't have it all - at least not yet......Pattern will go back to fog and gloom after Wednesday - so dont get too excited. This is just a teaser of hopefully better weather to come as we move into September. Sept 1 is normally the official start to the Fall surf season in Nor Cal. Not tracking any gulf storms yet. Just more south swell and windswell most of next week. Check the winds, surf early. cya in the water.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Surf early. I sound like a broken record but onshore winds the rule this weekend with fog and cool temps at the coast. South swell through Sunday with some decent size at times. That nw windswell event didn't materialize as forecast for size but there will be some windswell in the water. Could see some offshore flow next Monday and Tuesday! More on that event Sunday. Cya in th water.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Week Ahead



More images from Mexico. Rest assured it wont be like that around here anytime soon. High pressure remains in control in the Pacific Basin. Expect fog all week with onshore winds - lightest (if you can call it that) in the mornings. There is a chance this high pressure blocker will move further West - which might enable some storms to rise up and over the ridge and get into the Great Basin. This is the first time the models have hinted at this set up - which is usually the rumblings of an early Autumn pattern change. I wouldn't count on it just yet - wait to see how things pan out for the rest of the week.

Swell wise - next south/southwest due in here Friday to Monday. Forecasted deep water heights in the 2-4 ft range at 195-200. NW windswell will be on the rise late in the week too - with forecasted heights going into the 10-11 ft range at 9 secs from 324. if that comes to pass it will knock the piss out of the south swell as it moves north. Could see a better run of south swell starting Aug 24 - Aug 28 - more on that event later in the week. Between now and the weekend - small, gutless surf prevails.
cya in the water.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Small storm earlier this week tracked underneath the Aleutian Chain with 25kt winds. We'll see a tiny increase in surf from that storm Fri-Sun - but really it will just reinforce the existing windswell that will be in the water. Looking for 4-5ft at 9 from 320 at the offshore buoys - so considerably smaller near shore. Weather models have been hinting all week at a pattern shift in the upper atmosphere to give us warmer temps and relief from the steady fog and onshore winds. If that comes to pass - we might see the beginning of this on Sunday - lasting into next week. Much warmer temps inland, however it's not an offshore wind event - so we might only see the marine layer compress near the coast and burn off earlier in the day. **IF this happens at all! Patterns such as the one we've been in are very persistent and take a lot of energy to break down. Not sure i'm buying it - but we'll see. What we might see are much lighter winds in the mornings over the weekend. I still suspect some onshore/south wind on Saturday, perhaps light/variable Sunday morning. It's a very unpredictable set up at the moment. Nothing in the Tropics worth noting - could see some added storm development in the North Pacific mid to late next week - and a decent looking (on the models) south swell Aug 20 thru Aug 24. Check the winds, surf early. cya in the water.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Some faint signs.....



Mind surf this one! From my friends south of the border. How sweet does that look? Should last me until October. Far cry from the 1ft mush I drove 2 hours for yesterday.

Just a tease of a Fall pattern trying to get a toe hold in the upper reaches of the North Pacific. One storm dropping down out of BC today, which on a different trajectory could make it to the Great Basin and give us offshore flow - however, it's dropping straight down the West Coast and will form a cut off low - further enhancing this sweet weather we're having for the week ahead. By the weekends, models hint at a bit of a warm up - but we'll see. I don't buy it. By Friday, a Gulf low is forecast to track south of the Aleutians and push towards the West Coast. Because of the approach, no swell forecast for us from this system - but it's a good sign if it comes to pass. Want to see more of that as we move through the month. Tropical Storm Estelle is way south of Baja - but unlikely to strengthen or move into our swell window for anything to result.

Swell wise - it's shite this week. Not much south swell and minimal windswell. Winds look to stay as they've been - onshore, messy, ugly. You might get lucky somewhere for morning sessions if the winds are down. Otherwise, it's just desperation surfing.
Cya in the water.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Weekend Forecast

South swell filling in late today/tonight - right now 1.7 at 17 from 180+. Winds are light - but still onshore. Blowing 5kt from the south at OB - light northwest winds towards Bodega Bay. South swell will probably peak at 3ft deepwater - Sat/Sun. Morning winds will stay light onshore (sound like a broken record at this point). SW/W winds - you guys all know the usual deal with fog at the coast. Current weather pattern looks to stay locked in for the next 7-10 days. Hopefully by December we'll get some offshore/sunny days at the beach. ha. Nothing going on in the Gulf of Alaska - and after this south swell - things looks pretty marginal through mid August - as in no rideable real surf. Get what you can and don't be too picky. cya in the water.

Monday, August 2, 2010

The Summer That Wasn't

Cool, foggy conditions look the norm for the next 7-10 days. August could potentially be the 5th month in a row with below average temps for the entire region. Blocking high pressure - one to our north - and another out in the West Pacific is keeping the overall long wave pattern overhead stagnant. This is why we have fog each day with not much change. Low pressure stays parked to our southwest. This pattern is also keeping the northern branch of the jetstream fragmented. Until the jet consolidates with some decent wind energy we won't see much of a shift - in our weather - or early Fall storm development. Keeping an eye on it however. For this week - same old story - background southern hemi swells and nw windswell. Fog every morning (and lasting all day at many coast locations). Winds may be lightest in the mornings - but that's not saying much. Onshore winds the rule.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Weekend Forecast



The good news about this weekend is August is upon us. One more month to go. Hopefully we'll see some change mid to late month in the jetstream pattern. As for the now - winds are blowing strong N to NW at the offshore buoys, but lighter winds still prevail nearshore with the persistent fog deck. Small south/southwest swells to continue through the weekend (probably waist to maybe chest high) and the windswell will creep up given the pressure gradient to our north interacting with surface low pressure to our south and inland. Best call is to surf early when winds are the lightest. No big changes really in the week ahead pattern wise. Just watching, waiting, hoping for more signals of change. cya in the water.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Week ahead

Small windswell and small background southern hemi swell all week - nothing to get that excited about. Only good thing is that winds will continue to be light each morning. You poor bastards that live near the ocean - you'll probably not see the sun again until September.....cya in the water.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Oh so subtle signs of change....

Caught a glimpse of some local maples with just a hint of early color on their leaves tonight on the way home. Brought a smile to my face. In the North Bay valley where i live, Fall normally comes early and winter tends to linger a bit longer. Tonight it's cold, foggy and windy - and it's been that way along the coast all day. The sw/w winds making a mess of our nice South swell pulsing in. Swell is still 3.4 at 17 from 190 - but winds are dead on any south facing break. Look for high pressure to remain parked out in the East Pac while the normal summer thermal low persists over our interior. What will happen later this week is the low will retrograde some, while a bit of energy cut off from the main jet hovers around CA. Much lighter winds forecast for Friday/Saturday/Sunday - near the coast with variable to se flow. Look for the south swell to hang around most of the week - getting progressively smaller towards the weekend along with small NW windswell created by stronger north winds way up near the Oregon/California border. So hang in there my surfing friends. We're getting closer to August - and normally by mid to late August we start to see some stronger signs of seasonal change. Right now the northern jetstream is in hibernation with colder than normal waters now in many key areas of the Pacific Basin. La Nina is trying to assert her return this Fall. It will be interesting to see if that develops. Before last season, we had three years of La Nina - less rain, more cold, less big swells, but we did have some wonderful runs of winter surf with offshore winds for days at times. So while sometimes La Nina is a blessing for us surfers - it's not good for the State's water supply or snowpack. Time will tell. In the meantime - start to look around in August and notice the changes. As surfers, we're naturally more in tune with our surroundings and it's cool to be in touch with that which so many ignore or dont even realize exist. cya in the water.

Monday, July 19, 2010

South Swell Update

No sign of the new inbound south in our waters yet, however i am seeing a few strokes of energy in far So Cal - in the 3-4 ft at 20 second range. Look for the swell to slowly build overnight - and show in force later Tuesday through Thursday. Best estimates for us will be deepwater swell in the 3-5 ft range at 18-20 seconds. Winds are bad right now - blowing hard NW off shore (outer waters), but S/SW near shore - those NW winds could certainly knock some of the size down as the swell comes up the Coast. We'll have to see. Winds are forecast to get a bit lighter mid week in our outer waters and that will help. We have some big windswell in the water too - in the 8-9 ft range at 8-9 sec - making a mess of everything. The SW winds aren't helping either. Keep an eye on the winds and find your favorite south facing spots mid week. cya in the water.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Weekend Forecast - Good Size South starting Monday

Weekend looks like we'll have increasing nw winds/onshore winds (not great) and windswell coming up with it. Southern hemi stays in the background all weekend. The real deal starts probably late Monday when the 20 sec southern hemi starts to show. This swell is coming from around 195-200 degrees and we could see sets in the overhead range Monday/Tuesday - much bigger the further south you go. That swell will linger most of next week with periods dropping but decent size to stick around through at least Thursday. Keep an eye on the winds over the weekend - we might get lucky for the morning sessions - but i think the afternoons will be pretty blown out. cya in the water.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

NW peaking/fun SW

7.5 at 12 from 305 and fun sw 2.4 at 17 from 200. Fun combo swell in the water tonight. Look for the nw to slowly fade thru the day on Wednesday - with the sw swell hanging around thru the week. Still tracking a good strong s/sw well for July 19-23.
Winds were pretty light today - especially in the am with stronger onshore breezes in the afternoon. Look for that trend to continue all week - light/variable in AM - stronger seabreeze in the afternoon. cya in the water.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Off season NW due, plus SW looks to line up for rest of July

Off season NW swell is due in late Monday night - thru Wednesday. This swell will be strongest Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday morning. Energy from 285-300 degrees - probably going several feet overhead on the sets at stand out NW facing breaks like Ocean Beach. Beyond that - tracking a number of back to back SW swells for July 17 thru July 23. The last pulse in that series - (from the 20th to 23rd) has the potential to send in some decent size swell. I'll continue to track and update the status of these swells by middle of next week. Winds have been pretty light the last few mornings - with mainly light south to southeast flow. Look for that trend to continue thru next week with light winds from the S/SW/W in the mornings - followed by stronger onshores each afternoon. No huge NW wind blow forecast - and water temps have warmed a bit back into the 53-55 range. Looking long term into early Fall - we are falling back into a La Nina set up - El Nino is gone and cooler than normal water temps are being reported around the equator and other regions of the Pacific. This could have an impact on storm development as we start to move into Fall. We'll have to see what happens. cya in the water.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Typical mid (almost) July weather - foggy at the coast, warmer inland. Not much swell this weekend - fading mix of SW and windswell. If we're lucky, perhaps light enough winds near shore to make a paddle out. Nothing epic on the charts - but we are moving closer to Fall with each day - so that's something to be happy for! cya in the water.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Caught this at Endless Bummer blog...

The Surf Magazines Don't Talk About Lapsed Catholics from Todd Stewart on Vimeo.



Thanks to the Endless Bummer guys in NY that posted this. Such a great piece.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

South sticks around today, fades tomorrow

Back from Cabo last night - huge swell down there Sunday into Monday. 15-18 ft faces easily on the sets at it's peak. I saw some impressive buoy readings up here last night of 5ft at 17 from 180 - pretty respectable for a south swell in our part of the world. This am it's down to 3.5 at 17 - but look for that to fluctuate during the day. We also have a shot of mid period (11 sec) windswell mixing in - 7.9 ft from 330 - super steep nw angle - but will cross up at the beachbreaks that face both exposures. Enjoy it while it all lasts because the forecast for the remainder of this week stinks- with dropping windswell and fading south - combined with continued fog, onshore winds. July in Nor Cal. cya in the water.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Mix of SW and Tropical SSE on tap for Monday

Nice size southwest swell filling in today - deep water swell in the 2-4 ft range at 17 seconds. Swell from Hurricane Celia will mix in on Monday - with periods in the 12-14 sec range - probably won't notice it - but it will keep the south facing breaks consistent with head high waves at times. NW windswell and a very small pulse of north swell will also be in the water. Look for light variable winds/light onshore in the morning - turning to a more westerly/northwest angle in the afternoon. I'm out of here on Wednesday - headed to Mexico to chase some incoming swell - in fact look for a decent shot of southwest swell towards next Sunday/Monday. Watch the winds/fog again later this week - temps stay hot inland but will start to cool near the coast and then cool eventually inland by midweek. Holiday weekend looks pretty typical - night and morning low clouds/fog nearshore and seasonably warm temps inland. Have a good week and happy 4th of July.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Sunday looks to be the better wind day....

Models have backed off the predicted offshore wind event which was suppose to start tomorrow and last through Sunday. Now it looks like tomorrow will still be cool and foggy coast-side - with a modest warm up inland. Saturday will begin to see even warmer temps inland but don't look for a huge warm up near the coast. Winds could still be light onshore now Saturday morning. Sunday should be warmer everywhere - but only make it to the 70s at the beaches - and hoping the winds stay light and variable - or light offshore for Sunday morning. Still a mix of sw and nw swells in the water - with windswell - so i think best best will be the beaches that can work on the cross up of swells. should be something to ride - maybe just not uber clean. cya in the water.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Offshore flow this weekend

Models are hinting at very warm temps and offshore flow from Friday to Sunday - if that holds - should see some nice beach days for the weekend. Look for a mix of nw windswell and sw swells in the water for the weekend so we should have stuff to ride - especially at the nw facing breaks. Stay tuned and cya in the water.

Monday, June 21, 2010

Update on Surfboard fees to and from Mexico

Update on airlines fees in and out of Mexico:

United has changed the one way charge to $100.00 - down from $175 last year. This is for bags under 50Lbs.

Alaska is still $75 one way.

Get out of town!

Sunday, June 20, 2010

First Day of Summer Tomorrow....

Celebrate my surfing brothers and sisters - tomorrow is the first day of summer. What does that mean you ask? Well, it means that after tomorrow we get another minute towards Fall - each and every day. Just hold on - June/July - get through the next month and a half and then usually by August we'll see a few signs of change. Speaking of change - this morning was a relief - hope you got wet - the hurricane force winds dropped out and left us with a pretty nice morning. Unfortunately, winds are back this afternoon. Look for winds most of next week - with cooler than normal temps. One tropical storm and one hurricane today in the East Pacific to watch - but right now it doesn't look like either will enter our swell window - but I will keep an eye on it. Otherwise - we'll have continued windswell and small background sw swells. Check the winds in the mornings - you might get lucky next week. cya in the water.

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Forgettabouit

13ft at 10 seconds from 320. Winds are blowing gale force over the outer waters. A 10 sec windswell from 320 will basically go by our part of the coast and wave at us. Too steep an angle with short period - nothing is gonna wrap in except at nw facing breaks - and with the howling nw winds - best for some kite surfing. Winds are going to basically keep up all week making a mess of things. Things look bad for the rest of the month actually - perhaps a run of SW swell starting around the 25th - but between now and then - windswell, small pulses of s/sw and cold, cold water. Ahh, June in Nor Cal - you have to love it. Sounds funny to say it - but cya in the water.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

NW Swell Tues/Wed - NW Winds

Winds never really got offshore fully Saturday and certainly not today. Fog has returned and with it onshore winds. NW winds should blow all week. We have a late season NW swell due in here Tues/Wed - models forecast deep water swell heights in the 6-10 ft range - so this one should be good for some double overhead sets at nw facing breaks during it's peak on Wednesday. SW swell will be in the background all week - but mainly lost in the heavier nw swell and winds. It's June - one of the worst months of the year for surf around these parts - so get what you can when you can. cya in the water.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Winds are turning north - and hopefully will be blowing northeast in the morning. Large windswell in the water at 10ft + at 10 sec from 325 - a bit of a sloppy mess. No south to speak of. Water temps crashed while I was away this week (WTF?) down to 49 again. That's awesome. Hopefully winds will be light Sat/Sun mornings near shore - and blowing sideshore/offshore. Look for windswell to start winding down - with deepwater heights over the weekend still producing head high to overhead surf at nw facing spots. If we get the winds as forecast and warm temps to the coast it might actually be nice Sat/Sun and the main Nor Cal beaches. cya in the water and c'mon boys beat those damn English tomorrow!

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Off to NY - no reports next week

I'm off to NY next week - so i wont be updating the report. Use the forecast links to check wind, tide and swell. Pretty dreary looking today with dense fog - can't see anything. Look for NW winds to increase later next week - scheduled to blow really good by next Thursday.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Fun mix of nw and sw swells in the water - with lighter winds near shore - especially in the mornings. Look for this trend on Friday and probably Saturday - before we seen an increase in nw winds towards Sunday. Look for nw energy to increase more late Friday - maxing on Saturday with deep water at 4-7 ft from 275-300. SW swell will continue through the weekend with deep water heights around 3 ft from 190-210. The cross up of swells should keep beach breaks pretty fun. It's going to warm up a lot this weekend - and it might really shut down any marine influence of fog, winds - we'll have to see how close the thermal low inland moves overhead - how much it does will have a big impact on our winds. So, might not be a bad couple days of surf coming up - by late Spring standards - go out and get some. cya in the water.

Monday, May 31, 2010

Ugly

1.9 at 10 from 300 and 0.9 at 14 from 170 - that about says all you need to know about surf conditions today. Plus we have onshore winds/fog - not a good day for surfing anywhere. Look for surf to slowly pick up from the nw as the week moves on - with shots of nw/wnw swell from 280-290 starting Tuesday and continuing through next weekend. We could see some chest to overhead waves late in the week. Look for a run of sw swell from 195-210 starting around Tuesday and continuing through Saturday. Look for waist to chest high sets at the best south facing breaks. Look for winds from the sw/w all week. Maybe lighter in the mornings near shore. Weather models are hinting at rain north of the Golden Gate late in the week as well. We'll see if that comes to pass. Surf early and keep an eye on the winds. cya in the water.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Small mix of nw and sw swells will continue thru the holiday weekend. Winds might be light offshore Saturday morning but then look for more onshore flow by Sunday and very likely Monday as fog returns. The rain is over for now and weather looks nice for next few days. Models are actually hinting at more rain around June 7-10 we'll see if that holds. It would be most unusual. Probably look for waist to head high waves this weekend - just keep an eye on the winds. Early next week we'll see an increase in sizable nw swells and more energy from the south. More on that Monday. Cya in the water.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Updating south swell

Well depending on what part of the coast you're on today - dictates whether or not you score. By summer standards - super long period/large s swell is filling in - the offshore buoys don't lie - I saw some readings in the 8-9 ft at 20 sec and most recently Pt Reyes with a whopping 11ft at 20 sec - that is one significant southern hemi. The problem is the winds - howling all the way down the length of the CA Coast - and i think knocking the stuffing out of this swell as it wraps ashore. Much of the energy appears to be bypassing the coast too. Looking at Malibu and Santa Cruz cams - large sets for sure. I surfed a south facing break in Marin this am - and we had some head high/overhead sets early - but things slowed down as the tide dropped and wind came up. Look for this swell to stick around Monday, probably into Tuesday too - with size and period slowly winding down. My call would be to play hooky Monday AM and hit it early before work and the winds come up. We have a few more weather systems bringing us a chance of rain all next week - Tuesday thru Thursday. No gully washers, but perhaps more rain then we had last week. Winds will continue to be an issue with hard blows from the nw with sporadic south/southwest wind events as storms come ashore. It's really a shame we had all this nw wind because i think this south swell would have been one for the ages! Oh well - get what you can and be happy. Water is frigid - where as much rubber as you can muster. cya in the water.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Weekend Forecast


Actually a nice day, cept for the gale force nw winds offshore and cool temps. Dont get too comfy with all that sunshine. Swell tonight is 7-8 at 11 from 320 and 1.7 at 17 from 180. Big swell actually peaked overnight and during the morning - buoy readings off Oregon were most impressive for a short time for the time of year - 20-30ft. Look for steady shots of nw windswell thru Sunday - overhead at nw facing breaks, much smaller at south facing breaks as the shorter period won't wrap in as well. Steady nw winds look the rule for the next few days. We have the southern edge of a storm clipping the north bay tomorrow afternoon/evening - and then another potential shot of very light rain on Saturday. Cool temps, breezy, clouds, etc look likely for most of the weekend. As for our incoming southern hemi - look for long period forerunners probably late Saturday afternoon. On Sunday and Monday - models indicate we could at time see south sets overhead by a couple feet at the best south facing breaks. I'm still a bit concerned about all the nw wind knocking the piss out of this swell coming up the Coast - however it's a pretty powerful swell so hopefully much of the energy will make it through. Seems reasonable we'll see some solid head high sets for sure at south facing breaks. Water temps are frigid - feel even colder with the wind. Averaging 48-51 degrees right now. So i think we'll certainly have some waves to ride this coming weekend - especially on Sunday. cya in the water.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

More storms, wind, rain, swell....

***UPDATE 9PM - Small NW filling in at almost 3 ft 14 at 300 - also small S at 2 ft 17 at 180. Nice little mix. Not sure where this NW came from as it wasn't on the charts at all - but given storm activity to our north, not completely surprising. Winds coming on strong out of the northwest - nothing good can come from that! HUGE swell hitting outer Oregon Buoys - saw some readings in the 30ft at 14 sec range - that's freaking huge for May. I think the incoming swell for Friday (see below) may be way under called size wise - given the readings up north. I'll keep an eye on it and you can probably expect me to upgrade the size for the weekend.

From earlier today> They're running the Quicksilver Big Wave Invitational right now in Chile - in what looks like pretty solid 12-15ft surf - that's our south swell for this coming weekend and into the following week. I think the swell will start to show up here on Sunday - with 3-4 ft 21 sec energy from 185-195. Period will drop to 16 seconds on Sunday and Monday with size staying about the same 3-4ft (deepwater). At the same time, a late season, fairly powerful (but close to us) low pressure system in the gulf is kicking up mid period windswell/swell from around 306 - 9-10ft at around 11, maybe 12 seconds. Look for the nw swell to actually start showing Thursday and continue thru Monday. Weather going to remain a big issue. We have light winds this morning - but winds are forecast to really blow out of the NW starting Thursday right on through the weekend. Very brisk, cool temperatures are forecast as well - in fact we have potentially some frost possible late in the weekend in the north bay valleys - as overnight lows will be quite chilly for May. The weather stays cool and very unsettled through middle of next week - as low pressure remains parked in the gulf rotating energy through the central/north coast giving us some rain later today and then again possible on and off through Sunday. It remains a challenge to work on your boardshort tan for those south of the border adventures you have planned this summer. Should be plenty of surf to ride starting about Friday - it's just going to require some good local knowledge on what breaks work best. cya in the water.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Decent NW on Friday, followed by strong SW swell

Winter continues....in May. Storm pushing ashore today with light rain expected on most of the north/central coast. Wind is out of the south and buoys are pretty small with the last remains of our current sw swell showing - 2-3ft at 14 sec or so. Look for cool, breezy weather through next weekend - with another chance of light rain on Wednesday and again by Sunday. We're almost a month from the summer equinox - but the north pacific jetstream is still very active. Next up for us - is a very late season shot of NW swell - due in Friday. Right now looking at 9-10ft at 13sec from 295 on Friday with 8-9 at 13sec on Saturday. We have a couple SW swells due in around the same time - the first will probably go unnoticed at 2-3ft from 204 - but the second pulse which starts to show on Sunday - could come in around 3-4 at 17 and hang around through Tuesday. Should see long period runners of this swell during the day on Saturday in the 21 sec band. Given the larger NW in the water - you'll probably only notice the SW pulses at south facing breaks. Winds dont look that great all week with WNW to NW forecast between 9kt and 20kt - probably stronger offshore. Best bet is to surf early as that's when you have the best chance of lighter winds given the time of year. Or hit the south facing spots - they should be protected from that wind direction. So get some work done and hopefully we can feast from Friday through next Tuesday. cya in the water.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Update on south swell for this weekend...

I'm underwhelmed based on buoy data to our south this morning. Granted, it's early - but i'd like to be seeing some bigger readings already. This might be one of those where the models were overly optimistic. The long periods are there - but showing 2-2.7 or so off So Cal. So it will be interesting to see how much we get starting tomorrow. Swell will fill in late tonight. We also have a very small mid period (10sec) NW swell filtering in - very small. Perhaps the cross up on the two will help. Winds aren't great - SW - as the fog as established itself at the coast and pushing inland. Look for that all weekend with cool temps at the immediate coast. Winds are lighter the further south you go (south of Ocean Beach) - so it might not all be a wash. Rain Monday - then back to status quo. Interestingly, NO heat wave in sight - and we're going to be to June very soon. While El Nino is gone - the atmosphere is still being influenced by how strong this event was.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Upcoming South Swells.....Large swell possible May 22-25

Tracking a south swell due in this weekend. Should see long period stuff late Friday - 2-3 at 19/184-190 - continuing thru the weekend with period at 19 sec on Saturday, dropping to 17 sec on Sunday. Based on models - at it's peak it will show 3ft of deepwater swell with the main period band 19-17 secs. Not a bad little south. Things get far more interesting the following weekend - May 22 thru May 25 - as a major storm now flaring up is forecast to kick up a very significant swell for that time period. Models right now are hinting at 5-6ft of deepwater swell with periods from 23 sec to 17 sec through the event. This would be a pretty significant swell for the whole CA coast if it comes in as forecast. We're still early days on it - the storm is just getting started - but models are getting pretty consistent run to run already with the size and period. I'll dial this one in early to mid next week. As for winds coming up this weekend - looking for light West winds Sat/Sun mornings - if we're lucky - light enough to not mess things up. With variable winds on Monday morning. We have some push of NW wind offshore through the rest of this week (but not that strong) - this will keep the swell decay to a minimum as this south comes up the coast. This is a good thing. Water temps are still cool - 48-50deg. Temps could moderate a bit towards the weekend if we get a few days of west/onshore wind. cya in the water.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Glimmer of hope.....

7-12 ft 10-11 second windswell from around 300 in the water today. Winds have come up strongly out of the NW as forecast. Could be something at the sheltered breaks over the next day or so as this windswell will continue and a new WNW mid period swell starts to fill in Wed/Thurs. For the weekend coming - still tracking this sw swell event - which looks to be around Saturday to Monday. Right now I'm thinking deepwater swell in the 2-3 ft range - with longer periods. Winds are basically forecast to blow NW at the buoys the rest of the week (perhaps a bit lighter nearshore in the mornings) and then turn a bit more westerly or even southwesterly for the weekend. Most of our coast hates sw winds - so we'll see just how strong they come up. If we're lucky, they might be light enough for morning sessions this weekend - and at least not terminate the sw swell coming up offshore. A bigger/stronger sw swell event looks possible towards the week of 5-24. More on timing/size for that - mid to late next week. So, don't give up all hope just yet - well, it might rain again next Monday - before then we have some nice sunny days ahead and quite possibly you just might find something to ride at your favorite spot. cya in the water.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Pinch me, i think we're in Florida....

I woke up this am - hopeful I might get wet. I checked a few cams in the area and had to shake my head a couple times - SO flat, in fact so flat I thought the cam had malfunctioned and I was looking at South Beach, FLA. It's small, it's windy and to top it off it's raining. In fact, we have more rain coming for Monday - as the models did a really crap job of handling these two very late season storms. Storm #2 will give us rising windswell for Tues/Wed/Thurs - the steep angle/short period variety we love so much - like 9-10 ft at 9 sec from 320 + - killer. Down under - some storm action that will kick us up some SW swell late next weekend into the following week. Hope we get a break in the winds so these swells can make it around Pt Conception and give us something to ride. Between now and then - not much except the windswell next week - so get what you can when you can. cya on the golf course.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Weekend Forecast: Sleep in.

More dribble for the weekend. Smallish sw swell peaking today at 2.5 at 17 sec - might still be some sets Saturday morning at south facing breaks - otherwise - not much else in the water forecast. Minimal windswell and no swell of merit from any source in the north pacific. The north pac has gone asleep for the spring/summer season. Two storms which showed promise for Sunday and early next week are falling apart - and i dont expect any swell to develop from either. Longer range looking better for a run of sw swells - mid month and beyond - but between now and then there wont be much to surf. And to make it worse - we'll have nw winds on the rise again next week. Watching the perfect little waves pouring into Trestles this am for the Nike 6.0 pro REALLY got me depressed. But i had perfect 1ft Bolinas (desperation surf) to myself yesterday afternoon - so take that you So Cal types! cya in the water.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

It's bleak my friends......

Ugly: 6.3 at 9 sec/from 330 and 0.6 at 14sec/from 170. Forecasts called for a southwest swell to show up later this week - but i think the relentless north winds offshore are going to kill that one on arrival. Right now I'm not seeing anything on the charts until possibly around May 14-17 when a better pulse of SW swell is due. Could see an increase in nw swell/windswell by Monday/Tuesday - but nothing to get all excited about. We do have a couple storms once again forecast - one to drop in here late this weekend and possibly give us showers. Then on Tuesday, another storm slides through - although models are starting to push this one off to the north and east. Our only hope is to surf early - and maybe catch a break at the NW facing breaks before the wind machine gets going. Water temp is pretty cold - 48 degrees. I wish i could paint a better picture - but it's spring in Nor Cal. cya on the golf course.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Dirk Denny Memorial Fund

A very touching and inspired paddle out yesterday morning for Dirk Denny at Drakes. A couple hundred surfers of all ages, shapes, sizes out to pay their respects to Dirk and his family. It was a beautiful morning as everyone braved the strong winds and very cold waters. Rest in peace Dirk.

A Memorial fund has been set up:


Help support Dirk's wife and two daughters by donating to "The Dirk Denny Memorial Fund" at: https://sites.google.com/site/thedirkdennymemorialfund/

I'll update the forecast later.

Friday, April 30, 2010

...and then Spring descended on the north/central coast

8.8 at 8 seconds from 320 and 1.1 at 14 from 195 - that about says all you need to know - well that and water temp hovering around 49-50deg. It's Spring my surfing friends. NW gale force winds continue over the outer waters giving us no relief. Our only hope might be enough of a turn in the winds to side/offshore for Sunday morning - as high pressure builds in to our north and east. Otherwise, it would appear El Nino's influence on the north pacific storm track is fading as the normal high pressure ridge begins to build to our north/west - sending the jetstream into hibernation for the summer. Reflect fondly on those waves you got all winter - it will be a long while before you see that again....ha. Time to think of cold beers, chips and salsa, 80 plus degree water and trunks and a tan....cya in the water.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Forecast and paddle out for Dirk Denny

There will be a memorial paddle out for surfer Dirk Denny at Drakes Beach this coming Sunday at 8am. Dirk tragically passed away while surfing Drakes this month. Come out and support.

As for our surf - yet another strong late season storm is making a mess of things at the moment with wind, rain and sloppy conditions. We have WNW swell in the water with size increasing today for Thursday. Swell periods are generally in the 11-13 sec band - look for size to increase into the double overhead range at nw facing breaks on Thursday. Swell will fade on Friday. We have a mix of SW groundswells moving in - from 200-220 - today and a stronger pulse to come in for Friday. Look for the biggest surf from this event on Friday - easing thru weekend. This swell will probably be in the waist to chest high range - with perhaps head high sets. Winds don't look great for the next five days with a blow from the nw almost each day. Perhaps a bit lighter towards the weekend. South facing breaks will be best for that wind direction. Might see light and variable winds for Sunday morning as out weather looks to improve (and warm up) through the weekend. Models are hinting at yet more rain - early next week. We'll see if that develops. cya in the water.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Weekend Forecast

New long period NW swell showing tonight - 7-10 ft 17 sec from 300. This one came from a pretty good distance, so look for some lulls between sets. Winds have been blowing pretty strong from the west-northwest all day - with some fog along the coast making it's way inland tonight. High pressure is forecast to continue to build, slowly moving more to our northeast by Sunday hopefully giving us a bit of an offshore flow Sunday morning. Could see calm to variable winds early Saturday - and we have big high tides in the mornings too. Look for a bigger shot of nw swell to move in on Sunday - with sets to double overhead at the nw facing breaks. Sunday looks to be our last nice day for a while again - as our weather turns back to winter starting Monday night with rain, wind in the forecast through Tuesday. In fact if models hold up - we could see rain on and off most of next week - and it's the end of April. All thanks to El Nino. Tracking some decent south swell action for mid to late next week as well. More on that Monday. cya in the water.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Water Temp 50 and falling.....



Even the seabirds are cold......NW winds howling over outer waters, water temps a' tumblin down down. Probably upper 40s by tomorrow. Just when i got out of my hood and boots too. Shit! cya in the water.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Gale tonight, lighter winds expected

Gale force blow tonight offshore - nw winds in the 25 to 40kt range - probably higher gusts as the low pressure system tracks to our SE. Buoys to our north are showing a new pulse of NW swell - 14 ft at 15 sec - look for large surf and blown out conditions on Wednesday and probably Thursday - we might see some lighter morning winds Friday/Saturday - with a mix of NW and SW swells continuing thru the week. South facing protected spots are probably your best bet if you want to surf over the next couple days. Next chance of rain may hit next Mon/Tues. Small chance right now. More for the weekend forecast on Friday. cya in the water.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

South swell nuggers!



Surfed a super super ultra secret Marin south swell spot today....ha.... on these trusty tools - l to r - 5.6 Mabile Keel, 6.1 CI Keel, 6.4 Hess Pacheco. Get some south swell goodness - nice pulse in the water.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Good Night Orion


You've probably guessed by now if you have been reading this blog long enough - I like the weather. I sort of kook out about it, but it's relaxing. Anyway - for us surfers at this latitude - the winter constellation Orion is cool. I love to watch it move across the winter sky from late fall into spring. For me - seeing it come up in the eastern sky every fall is always a sign waves won't be far behind. And i get sad each spring to watch it move lower and lower in the western sky, eventually disappearing until the following fall. There is something really cool about Orion - so keep your eye on it each season and the next night you're outside - look up and towards the western sky - you'll see it. Now, for the surf report - small WNW filling in tonight - deepwater swell at 4-5 ft at 14-15 seconds from 300 - and a nice south, 2.9 ft at 17 from 175. Winds have been light onshore most of the day - as we're stuck under a cyclonic flow in the eastern pacific. Look for light winds Thurs and probably light south winds on Friday with light morning winds looking possible for the weekend. Fun size WNW/NW swells along with different S/SW swells look to continue through Sunday. Nothing huge - just some fun size surf. Next rain chances (yep, more rain) comes in next week - models are still up in the air about how much rain we can expect - but looks like we'll get something Monday through next Wednesday. Added pic of one more essential board for spring - the Simmons inspired Jeff McCallum Keel fin. cya in the water

Monday, April 12, 2010

Week Ahead - Forecast

Large, crazy spring storm exiting our region - should be a distant memory by late tonight. Winds have yet to come around - but overnight they will shift to the wnw - and then become light and variable for Tuesday morning. Two swells in the water right now - 8ft at 11 sec from 280 and 5.4 at 10 from 220 - both swells a product of our recent storm. Look for both swells to wind down late tomorrow afternoon. Next NW swell comes along on Wednesday into Thursday - look for the biggest waves during this swell to go several feet overhead. Look for south to southwest background swells to continue all week - nothing huge, just fun size stuff for the breaks that pick up southern energy the best. Look for winds to stay light to variable for the next few mornings - then we could see a shift back to stronger south winds late this week as another storm system is possible starting Friday. Models continue to hint at another storm on Sunday - but it's still a ways out. cya in the water.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Spring Quiver!


L to R - 6.6 FCD KMRP Model, Round pin. 6.4 Rusty Hustler. 6.1 Channel Island Even Keel. Let the good times roll.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Weekend Forecast

ah, looks like Spring today - winds are howling out of the NW - 25kts gusting past 35kts. Ouch! That should tumble water temps by Saturday for sure. So things are blown out to say the least, cept for south facing breaks. Short period, large windswell on order and that won't wrap in very well to protected breaks. The bummer with these winds is they will knock the piss out of the south swell coming up for the weekend as it rounds Point Conception - the typical result around these parts for Spring/Summer. We have Gale warnings up along the north coast for the outer waters. Now winds are suppose to back way off near shore on Friday morning - so you might find something to ride. Saturday - look for SOUTHERLY winds to ramp up as another storm system takes aim on us. This should be a rain maker for Sunday into Monday - but only bring winds with it on Saturday and increasing clouds. Look for a mix of NW swell in the 8-9 ft range and south swell 2-3 ft range (all deep water) from Friday through Sunday (and then building swell on Sunday). I imagine we'll have some residual wind lump on the water for Friday from the big blow today. So, tune your wave and wind hunting brain on for the next couple days - local knowledge is gonna be key to finding anything rideable. cya in the water.

Monday, April 5, 2010

NW swell continues/S swell midweek


Plenty of size still around tonight - buoys at 13 ft 14 sec/300. Look for plenty of swell sticking around through Wednesday - especially at the nw facing breaks. Head high/dble overhead plus for sure. Plenty of nw swells lining up through the end of this week and into the following. Look for background sw swell Tues through Fri from 200-215 - probably good for inconsistent 1-3 ft surf. Look for a bit bigger south (175-190) Friday into Saturday. Could see some head high sets from this over that time. Winds: look for light to offshore winds over the next few mornings (possible through Thursday) with moderate nw blows in the afternoons. There is the potential for stronger nw winds towards the weekend - more on that mid week or so. So overall, plenty of surf on tap through the next 7-10 days. Know your winds and what spots deliver and you'll score. cya in the water. (Thanks to Matt for the pic!)

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Swell UP

New Swell jumping up quicker than expected - already 16 ft at 14 seconds from 310 (very N angle). Bigger still to our north with buoys in the 19-20 ft range. Look for swell to hold through Sunday morning. NW winds right now - on the light side - but still nw. cya in the water.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Calendar says April - but we're still in winter time mode in the North Pacific - thanks to El Nino. Another small storm overhead today into the evening - bringing south winds. Swell is 9ft plus at 12 seconds from 290 - on the way down through Saturday morning and then look for the swell to jump back up Saturday eve into Sunday as a fresh new swell comes ashore. Surf heights will easily jump back up in the double overhead range at nw facing breaks. We have a stronger storm on tap for Sunday - so look for s/se winds to make a mess of it. We might get lucky Saturday morning for a sesh - but winds are going to be "light" n/nw - and we have negative low tides in the mornings right now. Not a great combination. Next week we dry out some - but models are hinting at perhaps more rain the weekend of April 10/11. I'm also tracking a decent s/sw swell that could show weekend of April 10/11 as well. Could be a bit smaller than the sw swell we had around here last weekend. Overall, a pretty decent start to the southern hemi season down under - no doubt in part to El Nino - it's early Fall down under and they're seeing good storm development. cya in the water.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Big Swell All Week

Swell trains lining up and reading to slam the Coast for most of the week. Big right now at 10 ft 14 sec from 305 - but that's nothing compared to what is on the way for Wednesday - surf heights will be back up in the 17-21 ft range (deep water heights). Unfortunately - winds look pretty nasty with storms on and off for the next week. S/SW winds mostly - maybe a turn to the WNW for Wednesday morning and then the best wind morning looks like Friday - when we have variable winds. So, plenty of swell, wind, rain and big ugly - but you might find a few windows of surf if you know where to look.
Keep and eye on the winds. cya in the water.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Winter makes a return next week

WNW swell is slowly fading thru Friday - but still plenty of size in the morning at nw facing breaks - look for surf overhead to double overhead. Lighter winds Friday (and Saturday morning) with N to NE flow. Saturday morning should be fun size at NW facing breaks. Saturday will be the last nice day for a while as the North Pacific is going to unleash a little can of winter time whoop ass on us - starting Sunday night and potentially continuing through next Thursday. Low pressure is going to park itself in the Gulf of Alaska and rotate system after system into our region. We might see a sub tropical tap - if the models stay on the current track. Things could still change - have to see how the forecast models react over the next 2-3 days. For sure we will have swell next week - but I suspect a lot of south wind with it. I'll try to fine tune things on Sunday night. Get out there Friday and for sure Saturday morning. Those look to be the cleanest mornings for the next 7 days. cya in the water.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Not a bad first weekend of Spring

Hope you got out there this weekend - conditions were pretty clean with light winds and a good mix of SW and N swells - bigger today - as the north swell was the dominant feature in the water. We have a storm front passing to our north tonight - so look for nw winds Monday - but by Monday night winds will veer to the N/NE - with possible offshore flow for Tuesday morning. We'll have our current N swell fading thru mid week - but reinforcing shots of NW swell filling in Mon/Tues - and then potentially a much bigger swell from 285-300 later in the week. We also have a good size SW swell (200-220) that will start to show Tuesday/peak mid week. Wed/Thurs mornings look good for AM sessions with light/variable winds possible. Otherwise, we'll have NW winds on and off - strongest in the afternoons. We do have a chance of very light rain Wed and then again Fri - but these storms are forecast to be very weak. Long range models hint we might return to a wet pattern again starting next Sunday and into the following week.
So - plenty of waves on tap this coming week - keep an eye on the winds - and you'll probably get some good windows to jump on it and your favorite break. cya in the water.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

First S/SW swells, continued NW swell

First decent S swell of the season due in for next week - before then, we have a small SW swell (190-200) filling in today - peak on Friday, but linger into Sunday. NW swell in the water and looks to stick around through early next week(various episodes of different size swells). Combination of the NW and SW swells should make for pretty fun conditions at the beach breaks through the weekend. Look for light winds to continue through the morning hours over the next few days. The bigger pulse of SW swell looks to show around Tuesday the 23rd lasting through the week. Still a bit early to call size - but we could be looking at some good deepwater south sets in the 5ft range. Storm corridor East of New Zealand is getting pretty active - which is typical for March/April - perhaps a bit more energized this year with the lingering effects of El Nino. Good signs - hopefully we'll have a good spring of SW swells. cya in the water.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Large Swell Tuesday to Thursday

New WNW swell starting to show tonight - will be quite solid during the day tomorrow. Look for deep water running 10-15 ft and bigger at times - energy from 270-300 degrees. Look for light winds tomorrow AM (NW flow isn't really developing as forecast this week). Wednesday, swell will still be quite solid - dropping a bit into the 8-12ft range - still light winds early. Swell drops out further on Thursday, but for north facing breaks still in the 6-10 ft range. We could see pretty warm temps both Thurs/Fri and possible light to offshore winds. So all n all - not a bad week weather or surf wise. If you like the big stuff - head to the north facing breaks in the mornings. Hint at a return to wet weather seven days out - but that's a long ways off right now.
cya in the water.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Weekend Forecast

Storm passing thru the region tonight - will be out of here by morning. Winds have switched to the nw behind the front and we have a north swell running at 10-14 ft 14/15 seconds from 310-320 - pretty north. Look for breezy nw winds and sunny skies on Saturday - with dropping north swell. Still some size in the morning then dropping during the day. Sunday looks sunny, with a warming trend - but still light nw winds in the morning. Still size at nw facing breaks on Sunday - but south facing will be pretty small. Looking for light morning winds Monday and Tuesday - next solid wnw swell comes in on Tuesday (more West again in this swell) - pushing things back in the 10-15 ft range for the nw facing breaks. High pressure gaining spring time control in the pacific - although we have a chance of rain again late next week. Between now and then, however - really nice weather with inland temps warming up into the 70s by Monday. Enjoy the sun. Cya in the water.