Friday, July 31, 2009

Weekend Forecast - Costa forecast for my traveling friends

So around here - the weekend looks small. Small NW swell and windswell is about all we have. Southern hemi is taking a breather. Winds look light thru the morning hours - W to NW 5-10 kts - increasing a bit over the afternoons. The mechanism that fuels El Nino and the transfer of warm water from West to East - is firing up again - which is a great sign. Two more weeks of watching and waiting and then we'll know how strong this upcoming El Nino event is going to be. Certainly looks moderate right now - although some comparisons to the Winter of 1997 are being made - and that was a very strong event. Wait and see. You can already see the impacts, as we've had no hurricanes in the Atlantic - El Nino shuts that down and fuels storm development in the Pacific Basin - hence the stronger south season we're currently enjoying. For my friends going to Costa next week - look for 2-4 ft surf Mon/Tues - more 2-4 Thurs/Fri and then possibly a bigger swell hits for Aug 6-9. So you guys should have a fun week of surf. Attached pic is one more from Malibu during the big swell on the 24th, 25th.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Malibu (July 25, 2009)

Check out this vid from Malibu over the weekend.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Gulf Wakes, more S/SW swells

Well, depending on what part of the Coast you were on over the weekend - you're were either really stoked or perhaps a bit disappointed. This large swell was certainly selective on what south/southwest facing beaches it chose to hit with it's full force. Pictures are from the Wedge and then one from one of our own local spots up on the Marin Coast. As for the surf ahead - the Gulf of Alaska is coming to life just a bit - with a storm now under the Kuril Islands which may send us a mid period NW swell late this week. We have back to back S/SW swells due as well - however these will be much smaller and a bit more shadowed than our swell winding down right now. Basically looks like something to surf right thru the week - with perhaps light winds in the morning hours increasing each afternoon. Still looks as if we're pushing towards a moderate El Nino event. Another couple weeks and we'll know for sure. Cya in the water.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

All eyes to the south

Upcoming south swell will be the biggest we've seen around these parts in quite a while for a number of reasons:

First off - the storm that created the swell was pretty close to us (by southern hemi standards) at around 3600miles. The storm continued to move north during it's life - with a strong fetch of winds and no shadowing from the Tahitian Islands. Bascially a direct shot to CA - with swell energy mainly from 190-191 degrees. As a result - top south breaks could see some doubleoverhead set waves with many places going several feet overhead - primarily Friday and Saturday. Check the buoys late Thursday for the first signs of energy - this should be long period stuff. Friday - all day will be solid - from sunrise to sunset. Plenty of size around Saturday and Sunday and even Monday. Could be one for the record books for sure. I'll try and update late Thursday or Friday - especially if there is any change to the incoming swell trains. cya in the water.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Solid SW Swell due Thursday to Sunday

Tracking a pretty solid SW swell (185-195) which will start filling in Thursday afternoon and peak Friday. This swell should be good for head high plus sets at south facing breaks - with perhaps some even bigger sets at times. Right now we could see deep water swell at 3-4 ft at 19 sec on Friday during the peak of this swell with similar energy Saturday when the period drops to 16sec. We've also got some NW windswell due to hit late in the week - as well as the potential for a mid period NW swell from 290-310. So from Thursday thru Sunday of the coming week we should have plenty of waves about. We're also suppose to see a pretty strong high pressure set up from the desert SW - with very warm temps. The North Pacific is showing some very early signs of life - with systems tracking across under the Kuril Islands and into the Eastern Gulf of AK. Another 2-3 weeks and we should have a pretty clear picture how strong (and more importantly if) we're moving into an El Nino phase for the Fall/Winter season of 2009-2010. Stay tuned.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Fall Quiver...wishful thinking...

Bored to death this weekend - started pulling out the boards for that first run of good Fall waves and weather - can't get here soon enough right? L to R: 6.6 Flyer, 6.6 Flyer 2/quad, 6.9 Black Beauty. On ground - 6.4 Hess Pacheco Quad. Until then - windswell remains the main feature - stuff in the 7-9 sec variety - yummy. Maybe some glimmer of hope towards the later part of July with some storms stirring in the South Pacific. Also watching Hurricane Carlos and Trop Storm Delores for any sign of relief. Ongoing signs of some storm development in the North Pac. But right now not calling anything. Take what you can get and be happy!
cya in the water.

Friday, July 10, 2009

About as bad as it gets around here

Ugh, NW winds, fog, short period crappy windswell - we're in the middle of summer and it's pretty damn bad. The only long term hope is that all signs continue to point to El Nino - and a very strong event at that. Supporting this, is a low pressure system forecast to develop on Monday out in the West Pacific, which could set up some small 12 sec windswell - nothing epic, but given it's mid summer and a low pressure system is forecast to gain some traction - another possible sign of El Nino. At the same time - a big gale way down under is forecast to get going around 7-16 - so will keep an eye on that system and the Gulf Low. Between now and then - it's windswell and that's all you get.

Monday, July 6, 2009

SW Pulse in the water

Smaller than modeled SW in the water - 2.7 at 17 sec from 200 or so degrees. Winds are blowing hard from the NW - so get someplace protected that also likes a s/sw swell. Fog has been disrupted by high pressure and wind building to our N. SW swell should stick around and start fading tomorrow. Maybe some ongoing s/sw pulses during the week - but nothing epic. Windswell will be on the rise too and water temps will start to fall the longer these nw winds blow. Right now nothing of major significance from the north or south hemi long term. It is July - so have faith my brothers and sisters - we're that much closer to Fall!

cya in the water,